Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Giants (+111) at Pirates (-120) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates out: Adam Frazier
Pirates in: Max Moroff
Adam Frazier will rest for the second time in the last nine games, and he’ll be replaced atop the batting order and at second base by Max Moroff. The Pirates are implied to score 4.2 runs, and the last time Moroff batted leadoff, he went hitless in five at-bats with four strikeouts. Nonetheless, he costs $2000 on FanDuel and has posted a positive wOBA differential against lefties over the past 12 months. His recent Statcast data in his limited action works in his favor when considering a punt option at shortstop, and his career strikeout rate against lefties is 10% less compared to his at-bats against right-handers. Giants’ left-hander Andrew Suarez does have the second-lowest WHIP (0.988) on the slate, but that’s paired with the fifth-highest HR/9 rate (1.57), providing Moroff a modicum of upside.
Mets (+138) at Phillies (-150) — 7:05 PM EST
Mets out: Jay Bruce (paternity leave)
Mets in: Wilmer Flores
Jay Bruce has been placed on the paternity list, so the Mets will roll with Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes at the top of the order for their matchup against the Phillies. They’re currently implied to score just 3.6 runs against Jake Arrieta, who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts this season. Arrieta is one of just five pitchers in Friday’s main slate that have allowed an average batted ball distance under 200 feet with a ground-ball rate above 50 percent over the past 15 days. Continuing to limit big hits will be vital against a Mets lineup that features six batters with positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Arrieta is the fourth-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model on DraftKings, although his 5.6 K Prediction is outside of the top-10 marks in Friday’s main slate.
Athletics (+166) at Yankees (-181) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees out: Gary Sanzhez
Yankees in: Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez will receive a day off, so Austin Romine will catch and bat eighth for a Yankees lineup currently implied to score 5.6 runs. The Yankees are especially in play on DraftKings, where they carry a slate-high Team Value Rating of 83. Both offenses could benefit from estimated winds of seven miles per hour blowing out to right field. Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, and Miguel Andujar form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack in combined ISO over the past 12 months. Judge in particular is set up well on DraftKings, as his $5,200 price tag comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating and five Pro Trends. His .142 ISO differential vs. righties is the fifth-highest mark among all outfielders in Friday’s main slate. Kendall Graveman has allowed seven home runs in six starts this season and is one of the slate’s five pitchers with a WHIP above 1.5 over the past calendar year.
Rangers (+228) at Houston Astros (-250) — 8:10 PM EST
Rangers in: Rougned Odor (strained left hamstring)
Rougned Odor has been activated off the disabled list and will bat seventh against the Astros and right-hander Justin Verlander, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in every start this season. Odor missed close to a month with a strained left hamstring, and his return will displace Isiah Kiner-Falefa from second base and the lineup. The Rangers are presently implied to score 3.3 runs — the second-lowest mark in the main slate and a total that has increased 0.4 since the line opened. Verlander claims an elite 13.5 K/9 at home this season, and he’s dominated left-handed hitters: in 90 chances, lefties have eight hits off Verlander this year. He isn’t the most-expensive pitcher on the slate, and his tournament ownership may actually be reasonable with the Nationals’ Max Scherzer in a better spot. The last time Verlander faced the Rangers at home, he limited them to one run in 8.0 innings while striking out 11.
