Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mariners (+140) at Blue Jays (-152) — 7:07 PM EST
Mariners out: Dee Gordon (bruised big toe)
Mariners in: Guillermo Heredia
Dee Gordon is dealing with a bruised big toe after fouling a ball off his foot, but the injury isn’t considered serious and he’s expected to return to the lineup Friday. The Mariners will roll with Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Robinson Cano at the top of the order for their matchup against the Blue Jays. They’re currently implied to score a modest 4.1 runs against lefty J.A. Happ, who has struck out at least eight batters in five of his last six starts. Segura and Guillermo Heredia are the only two Mariners batters with positive wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Still, Happ carries an average 5.8 K Prediction in part due to a tough matchup against a Mariners lineup that has combined to strike out on just .218 of their at-bats over the past 12 months – the fourth-lowest mark in Thursday’s main slate.
Brewers (+132) at Rockies (-143) — 8:40 PM EST
Rockies out: Carlos Gonzalez
Rockies in: Ian Desmond
Carlos Gonzalez will receive the day off, so the Rockies will start Gerardo Parra, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl in the outfield. They’ll bat sixth, second, and fourth, respectively, for a Rockies lineup currently implied to score a slate-high 6.3 runs. Overall, each of Blackmon, Dahl, and Tony Wolters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Dahl is particularly enticing on FanDuel, where his $3,000 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.49 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus – the sixth-highest mark among all batters in Thursday’s main slate. The Rockies are set up well against right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Chacin carries a slate-low 3.2 K Prediction and will have his hands full with a Rockies lineup that has combined to post a solid .330 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year.
Cardinals (-138) at Padres (+127) — 10:10 PM EST
Cardinals in: Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham was activated off the disabled list and will bat leadoff against the Padres on Thursday. He missed the previous three games due to a toe ailment, and he’s one of nine outfielders who cost at least $5000 on DraftKings. The Cardinals are implied to score only 4.1 runs which reduces their appeal as a stackable team, and Pham and Paul DeJong are the only hitters in the lineup with positive differentials across the board. Padres right-hander Jordan Lyles possesses among the worst WHIP and HR/9 rates on the slate, but he gets the aid of an 83 Park Factor. He’s been a reliever the entire season and has maxed out at 45 pitches. It’s unlikely he’ll pitch deep into the game. Pham offers plenty of value on FanDuel at $3700 as Lyles has allowed a slate-high 235-foot batted ball distance and 64.0% fly ball rate in his last three appearances.
Reds (+156) at Dodgers (-170) — 10:10 PM EST
Reds out: Jose Peraza
Reds in: Alex Blandino
Jose Peraza will receive a routine rest day against the Dodgers and right-hander Walker Buehler, who has allowed two total runs compared to 19 combined strikeouts in his last three starts. Adam Duvall will move up to the two-hole and Alex Blandino will replace Peraza at shortstop. The Reds are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs, and despite the favorable matchup, Buehler opposes a lineup with a 0.218 SO/AB rate — the fourth-lowest mark on the main slate. Buehler’s salary has skyrocketed to $10,500 on DraftKings, but that figure is unbefitting a 4.1 K Prediction. Pitchers with a similar price and K Prediction have averaged a -2.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
