Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 12:00 pm ET.
Orioles (+165) at Yankees (-180) — 1:05 PM EST
BAL notable absences/replacements: Chris Davis (illness) –> Danny Valencia.
BAL Notes: The Orioles will roll with Mancini, Machado, and Schoop at the top of their lineup against the Yankees. While their current implied total of 3.9 runs is uninspiring, each of Valencia, Machado, Gentry, Schoop, and Joseph have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. lefties over the past 12 months. Montgomery hasn’t exactly done a great job at forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s one of just four pitchers in Sunday’s main slate that have allowed a fly-ball rate above 40 percent over the past calendar year. Still, Montgomery carries a 6.5 K Prediction and has a solid matchup against an Orioles lineup that has combined to strike out every .262 at bats since the beginning of last season. Exposure to Montgomery should be focused on DraftKings, where he’s the third-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model and has a +6.35 Projected Plus/Minus.
NYY notable absences/replacements: Didi Gregorius –> Ronaldo Torreyes. Gary Sanchez (right calf) –> Austin Romine. Tyler Wade (illness) –> Neil Walker.
NYY Notes: The Yankees are currently implied to score 5.2 runs despite numerous absences across their lineup. Walker is the biggest beneficiary from the shake up, as he’ll bat fourth and start at second base. He’s historically crushed righties, posting a .379 wOBA and a .208 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Walker ranks among the top-five second basemen in Sunday’s main slate in both ISO and wOBA differential vs. righties since the beginning of last season. He’s continued to offer extra-base upside, as he ranks among the top-three second basemen in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate. Walker and the Yankees are set up well against Wright, who has allowed a 1.397 WHIP over the past calendar year. Both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour out to right field.
Royals (+197) at Indians (-215) — 1:10 PM EST
KC notable absences/replacements: None.
CLE notable absences/replacements: Lonnie Chisenhall (strained right calf) –> Tyler Naquin.
CLE Notes: Chisenhall has been placed on the 10-day disabled list with a calf injury, so Naquin will bat eighth and start in right field against the Royals. The Indians are currently implied to score 4.6 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating of 81 is tied for the third-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Lindor, Kipnis, Brantley, and Encarnacion form the second-highest rated four-man stack in the Bales Model. Hammel will have his hands full with an Indians lineup that has combined to post a .342 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s historically struggled to limit big hits, ranking among the slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average batted ball distance, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 12 months.
Marlins (+164) at Phillies (-178) — 1:35 PM EST
MIA notable absences/replacements: None.
PHI notable absences/replacements: Aaron Altherr –> Nick Williams.
PHI Notes: Williams will bat fifth for a Phillies lineup currently implied to score 4.7 runs. Exposure to the Phillies should be focused on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating of 84 is the second-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Santana, Franco, Williams, Knapp, and Crawford have each posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They have a great matchup against Richards, who allowed five earned runs in just 4.1 innings pitched during his first career start. Richards does offer some strikeout upside against a Phillies lineup that has combined to strike out every .281 at bats over the past calendar year – the third-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate.
Cubs (-126) at Brewers (+116) — 2:10 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Ian Happ –> Albert Almora. Anthony Rizzo (tight lower back) –> Victor Caratini.
CHC Notes: The Cubs will roll with Almora, Bryant, and Zobrist at the top of the order for their matchup against the Brewers. Despite the absence of their hard-hitting first baseman, the Cubs still offer plenty of upside throughout the lineup. Bryant, Zobrist, Contreras, and Schwarber form the slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Bryant has posted a .412 wOBA and a .266 ISO vs. righties over the past calendar year and will look to continue to crush the ball. Overall, he’s the top-rated third baseman in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel while ranking among the slate’s top-six third basemen in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Anderson does offer strikeout upside considering his 7.7 K Prediction and matchup against a Cubs lineup that has combined to strike out every .306 at bats over the past calendar year – the highest mark in Sunday’s main slate.
MIL notable absences/replacements: Christian Yelich (stiff right oblique) –> Domingo Santana. Travis Shaw –> Hernan Perez.
MIL Notes: Santana and Perez will bat second and fifth, respectively, against the Cubs. The whole Brewers outfield offers upside, as each of Santana, Perez, and Polanco rank among the top-seven highest-rated outfielders in the Bales Model on FanDuel. Still, Quintana has allowed just 0.97 home runs per nine innings pitched while consistently forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground. Overall, Quintana is one of the slate’s six pitchers that have posted a ground-ball rate above 45 percent over the past calendar year. He’s averaged 10.04 K/9 over the past 12 months and has a great 7.9 K Prediction. Exposure to Quintana should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,500 price tag comes with a 70 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.15 Projected Plus/Minus.
Tigers (+154) at White Sox (-167) — 2:10 PM EST
DET notable absences/replacements: Victor Martinez –> Nick Goodrum.
DET Notes: Goodrun will back fifth for a Tigers lineup currently implied to score just 3.7 runs. Overall, the Tigers lineup has combined to most a mediocre .307 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, Lopez doesn’t offer much strikeout upside and has historically struggled to force hitters to keep the ball on the ground, Overall, he’s allowed a slate-high 47 percent fly-ball rate over the past calendar year. Both pitchers will have to deal with some less than ideal weather, as the White Sox-Tigers’ matchup has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Unfortunately for the Tigers, only their eighth and ninth hitters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers.
CHW notable absences/replacements: None.
Pictured above: Neil Walker
Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports
