Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 5:00 pm ET.
Reds (+120) at Pirates (-130) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Scott Schebler (sore right elbow) –> Adam Duvall. Billy Hamilton –> Phillip Ervin.
CIN Notes: The Reds will roll with Winker, Suarez, and Votto at the top of the order for their matchup against the Pirates. Winker in particular is set up well against Kuhl, as he’s posted .263 and .184 wOBA and ISO differentials vs. right-handed pitchers, respectively, over the past 12 months. Overall, he ranks among the top-six outfielders in Saturday’s main slate in ISO and wOBA against righties. Kuhl has historically struggled to limit big hits, ranking among the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. He’s posted a mediocre 1.492 WHIP and has a sub-par 5.7 K Prediction. The Reds-Pirates’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Saturday’s main slate.
PIT notable absences/replacements: Francisco Cervelli –> Elias Diaz. Gregory Polanco (right foot discomfort)–> Adam Frazier.
PIT Notes: Polanco has been scratched, so Frazier will now start in right field and bat second. Diaz will bat sixth for the Pirates in their matchup against the Reds. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.6 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating of 75 is tied for the third-highest mark in Saturday’s main slate. Marte is set up well against Romano, as he’s posted a .348 wOBA and a .133 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, his .158 wOBA and .104 ISO differentials vs. righties rank among the top-eight outfielders in Saturday’s main slate. The Reds-Pirates’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Saturday’s main slate, and both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of five miles per hour out to center field.
Blue Jays (-124) at Rangers (+115) — 8:05 PM EST
TOR notable absences/replacements: None.
TEX notable absences/replacements: Adrian Beltre –> Jurickson Profar.
TEX Notes: Beltre is getting an off day on his birthday, so Profar will bat sixth against the Blue Jays. The Rangers are currently implied to score 4.1 runs, but are in play on DraftKings, where their Team Value Rating of 74 is tied for the highest mark in Saturday’s main slate. Overall, Odor, Mazara, Gallo, and Robinson form the slate’s fifth-best four-man stack in combined ISO. Still, they’ll have their hands full with Stroman, who is the highest-rated pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Stroman has posted a 1.338 WHIP over the past 12 months and has a 6.4 K Prediction — the third-highest mark in Saturday’s main slate. He ranks among the slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past calendar year. Exposure to Stroman should be focused on FanDuel, where his $7,900 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Pictured above: Marcus Stroman
Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton – USA Today Sports
