Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 5:30 pm ET.
Reds (-122) at Pirates (+113) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Scott Schebler (sore right elbow) –> Adam Duvall.
CIN Notes: Duvall will bat fifth for the Reds in their matchup against the Pirates. Their current implied total of 4.0 runs is the fifth-lowest mark in Friday’s main slate, and the Reds lineup has combined to post a mediocre .320 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ll have their hands full against Williams, who ranks among the slate’s top-three pitchers in exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. Overall, he’s one of just three pitchers on the main slate that have allowed fewer than .8 home runs per nine innings pitched. Exposure to Williams should be focused on FanDuel, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating. Be sure to monitor the forecast, as there’s currently a 54 percent chance of participation.
PIT notable absences/replacements: None.
Orioles (+156) at Yankees (-170) — 7:05 PM EST
BAL notable absences/replacements: Colby Rasmus –> Danny Valencia.
BAL Notes: The Orioles will roll with Mancini, Machado, and Schoop at the top of the order for their matchup against the Yankees. They offer plenty of capable bats against Sabathia, as each of Valencia, Schoop, Machado, and Joseph have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, Sabathia has done a great job limiting big hits, as he’s one of just three pitchers in Friday’s main slate that has allowed fly-ball and hard-hit rates below 30 percent over the past calendar year. Sabathia has a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel against an Orioles lineup currently implied to score just 3.9 runs.
NYY notable absences/replacements: None.
Blue Jays (-119) at Rangers (+110) — 8:05 PM EST
TOR notable absences/replacements: Aledmys Diaz (back spasms) –> Yangervis Solarte.
TOR Notes: Solarte will start at shortstop and bat fourth with Diaz still sidelined. Pearce will surprisingly lead off over Travis for their matchup against the Rangers. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score 5.2 runs and have the second-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Friday’s main slate. Smoak, Solarte, and Grichuk are the third-, seventh-, and eighth-highest rated batters on DraftKings in the Bales Model. The entire lineup offers power upside, as Pearce, Donaldson, Morales, Pillar, and Travis form the slate’s third-highest rated five-man stack in combined ISO. The Blue Jays are set up well against Moore, who has allowed slate-high marks in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 12 months.
TEX notable absences/replacements: None.
Cubs (-142) at Brewers (+131) — 810 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Ian Happ –> Ben Zobrist
CHC Notes: Zobrist will lead off for the Cubs in their matchup against the Brewers. Exposure to Zobrist should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,200 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Overall, Zobrist is the No. 5 and No. 2 highest-rated batter and second basemen, respectively, in Friday’s main slate. He carries a +2.23 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a 32.6-point projected ceiling, but his projected ownership rate of 9-12 percent is tied for the third-highest mark among second basemen. The whole lineup is set up well against Woodruff, who has allowed an average batted ball distance of 196 feet with an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour over the past 12 months. Despite the tough matchup, Woodruff does offer sneaky strikeout potential with a 6.3 K Prediction and matchup against a Cubs lineup that has combined to strike out every .291 at bats over the past calendar year – the highest mark in Friday’s main slate.
MIL notable absences/replacements: Christian Yelich (stiff right oblique) –> Domingo Santana.
MIL Notes: The Brewers are currently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Cubs and will again be without Yelich, although his injury reportedly isn’t significant enough to warrant a stint on the disabled list. It’s good news for Hendricks, who has an 89 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Hendricks has posted a 1.21 WHIP and averaged 8.05 K/9 over the past 12 months while continuing to force hitters to keep the ball on the ground. Overall, he’s one of just five pitchers in Friday’s main slate with a ground-ball rate above 50 percent over the past calendar year. Hendricks will take on a Brewers lineup that has combined to post a mediocre .324 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Pictured above: Steve Pearce
Photo Credit: Gerry Angus – USA Today Sports
