Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 4:45 pm ET.
Reds (+136) at Pirates (-148) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Scott Schebler (sore right elbow) –> Jesse Winker. Devin Mesoraco –> Tucker Barnhart.
CIN Notes: The Reds are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.6 runs against Brault, who will make just his 12th-career start. Brault carries a pedestrian 3.2 K Prediction and is tied with Adam Wainwright for the slate’s highest ownership rate on DraftKings. Still, he’s set up well as the slate’s cheapest arm across the industry against a Reds lineup that has combined to post a .326 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-lowest mark in Thursday’s main slate. Only Duvall and Suarez have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year among everyone in the Reds lineup. Brault has allowed a slate-low 0.726 home runs per nine innings pitched, although the Reds-Pirates’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Thursday’s main slate.
PIT notable absences/replacements: Colin Moran –> David Freese.
PIT Notes: Freese will bat sixth for the Pirates in their matchup against the Reds Thursday. The Pirates are especially in play on DraftKings, where they boast the slate’s second-highest Team Value Rating. Overall, Harrison, Polanco, Bell, and Mercer form the slate’s second-highest rated four-man stack in the Bales Model. They’re set up well against Bailey, who has allowed a slate-high 1.697 WHIP over the past 12 months. Bailey has historically struggled to limit big hits, as he ranks among the bottom-two pitchers in Thursday’s main slate in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past calendar year. He carries a slate-low 2.9 K Prediction and will take on a Pirates lineup that has combined to strike out on a slate-low 0.169 at bats. The Reds-Pirates’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Thursday’s main slate.
Cubs (-108) at Brewers (+100) — 8:10 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Kyle Schwarber –> Ian Happ. Jason Heyward –> Ben Zobrist.
CHC Notes: The Cubs are currently implied to score a slate-high 4.6 runs on the Brewers. They boast power throughout the entire lineup, as Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, and Baez form the second-highest ranked four-man stack in Thursday’s main slate in combined ISO. Overall, each of the Cubs 5-8 batters have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Zobrist, Happ, and Rizzo are the slate’s first-, third-, and fifth-highest rated batters on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Still, Suter has historically done a solid job at preventing big hits, ranking among the slate’s top-two pitchers in home runs allowed per nine innings and WHIP over the past 12 months.
MIL notable absences/replacements: Christian Yelich –> Domingo Santana.
MIL Notes: The Brewers will roll with Cain, Santana, and Braun at the top of their lineup for their matchup against the Cubs. The former two batters, plus Mercer, form the slate’s third-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Cain has smoked the ball recently, ranking among the slate’s top-four outfielders in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past calendar year. Still, they have their work cut out for them against Lester, as the Brewers lineup has combined to post a slate-low .320 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Lester has a slate-high 8.6 K Prediction and a great matchup against a Brewers lineup that has combined to strike out every .270 at bats since the beginning of last season – the highest mark in Thursday’s main slate. He’s especially in play on FanDuel, where Lester’s $8,900 price tag comes with a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
Pictured above: Ian Happ
Photo Credit: David Kohl- USA Today Sports
