Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 6:52 pm ET.
White Sox (+201) at Blue Jays (-220) — 7:07 PM EST
CWS notable absences/replacements: None.
TOR notable absences/replacements: Yangervis Solarte –> Devon Travis. Luke Maile –> Russell Martin. Aledmys Diaz (back spasms) –> Mpho’ Ngoepe.
TOR Notes: Travis, Martin, and Ngoepe will bat first, sixth, and ninth for the Blue Jays’ matchup against the White Sox. They’re currently implied to score a slate-high 5.8 runs and have a slate-high Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Travis, Donaldson, Smoak, Grichuk, and Martin form the slate’s third-highest rated five-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. They’ll look to exploit Fulmer’s historical inability to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s allowed a slate-high 53 percent fly-ball rate and 1.607 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months.
Mariners (+121) at Giants (-131) — 7:15 PM EST
SEA notable absences/replacements: Guillermo Heredia –> Ichiro Suzuki. Ryan Healy –> Dan Vogelbach. David Freitas –> Mike Marjama.
SEA Notes: The Mariners will roll with Gordon, Segura, and Cano at the top of their order against the Giants. The former and latter batters each have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Cano’s .375 wOBA and .204 ISO vs. righties over the past calendar year are the second-highest marks among all second basemen in Wednesday’s main slate. They’re set up well against Cueto, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed. The Mariners-Giants’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
SF notable absences/replacements: Austin Jackson –> Gregor Blanco. Evan Longoria –> Pablo Sandoval. Nick Hundley –> Brandon Belt.
SF Notes: Hunter Pence was scratched with a sprained right thumb and has been replaced by Hernandez. Belt, McCutchen, and Posey will fill the 2-4 spots against the Mariners. The Giants are especially in play on FanDuel, where they have the third-highest Team Value Rating in Wednesday’s main slate, and each of their top-six batters have a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Only Panik, Belt, and Crawford have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among that group, but King Felix hasn’t been his usual dominant self as a road underdog in recent seasons. Overall, Hernandez has averaged 28.4 FanDuel points per game with a -3.95 Plus/Minus and 40 percent Consistency Rating in 10 starts as an underdog away from Seattle since 2014. The Mariners-Giants’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
Cardinals (-116) at Brewers (+107) — 7:40 PM EST
STL notable absences/replacements: None.
MIL notable absences/replacements: Ryan Braun –> Domingo Santana.
MIL Notes: Braun will rest, so Santana will bat fifth against Martinez and the Cardinals. Martinez has a high strikeout floor, as he’s averaged the most K/9 on the slate over the past 12 months and has a strong 7.3 K Prediction. He’ll look to continue to force hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s allowed a 52 percent ground-ball rate over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Preventing big hits will be easier said than done against the top of the Brewers’ lineup, as each of Thames, Yelich, and Cain each rank among the slate’s top-seven highest-rated batters on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Overall, Thames, Yelich, Cain, Santana, and Sogard form the slate’s highest-rated five-man stack.
Rangers (+155) at Athletics (-168) — 10:05 PM EST
TEX notable absences/replacements: Rougned Odor –> Jurickson Profar.
TEX Notes: The Rangers are currently implied to score just 3.7 runs against the Athletics Wednesday. Still, each of their top-six batters in the lineup have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Olson in particular has historically shelled southpaws, as he’s posted position-high marks in wOBA and ISO vs. lefties over the past calendar year. Manaea will have his hands full with a Rangers’ lineup that has combined to post a .332 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers – the third-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. The Rangers-Athletics’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
OAK notable absences/replacements: Stephen Piscotty –> Matthew Joyce. Jonathan Lucroy –> Bruce Maxwell. Jake Smolinski –> Boog Powell.
OAK Notes: Joyce, Maxwell, and Powell will bat second, eighth, and ninth, respectively, for the Athletics’ matchup against the Rangers. The Athletics carry the second-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re set up well against Fister, who has allowed the third-highest WHIP over the past 12 months among all pitchers in Wednesday’s main slate. He’ll have his hands full with an Athletics’ lineup that has posted a .345 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Semien, Joyce, and Olson form the fourth-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. The Rangers-Athletics’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate.
Rockies (-125) at Padres (+115) — 10:10 PM EST
COL notable absences/replacements: None.
SD notable absences/replacements: Manuel Margot –> Matt Szczur. A.J. Ellis –> Austin Hedges. Hunter Renfroe –> Cory Spangenberg.
SD Notes: The Padres are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs. Wil Myers (arm) has been placed on the 10-day disabled list, so they’ll roll with Pirela, Asuaje, and Hosmer at the top of the order against the Rockies. Gray has a fantastic matchup against a Padres lineup that has combined to post a .305 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – tied for the worst mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Gray also offers plenty of strikeout upside considering he has a slate-high 9.8 K Prediction against a Padres lineup that has combined to strike out every .275 at bats over the past calendar year. The only downside is Gray’s popularity, as he currently has the highest projected ownership rate among pitchers on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pictured above: Eric Thames
Photo Credit: Benny Sieu- USA Today Sports
