Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Pirates (-101) at Nationals (-109) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates in: Sean Rodriguez
Pirates out: Starling Marte
Starling Marte will rest for the first time all season on Monday, and Sean Rodriguez will replace Marte in the outfield and in the three-hole for a Pirates team presently implied to score 4.0 runs. The rest of the lineup remains relatively intact, which appears beneficial for Nationals right-handed starter Tanner Roark. Five Pirates in the lineup possess negative batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate differentials over the last 15 days. Roark has thrown at least 100 pitches in three of his last four outings, and he’s limited hitters to a 197-foot batted-ball distance in his last two starts. His mediocre 6.4 K Prediction doesn’t create much optimism. Nonetheless, Roark has averaged 17.47 DraftKings points per start when favored at home with a similar K Prediction. His ability to pitch deep into games creates a safe floor in cash games as a potential SP2.
Rays (-130) at Tigers (+120) — 7:10 PM EST
Tigers in: John Hicks, Victor Reyes
Tigers out: Miguel Cabrera (left biceps spasm), Leonys Martin (tight hamstring)
Miguel Cabrera was pulled from Sunday’s game after suffering a left biceps spasm, and he’s out of the lineup on Monday. He’ll be replaced at first base by John Hicks and in the three-hole by Nick Castellanos. Leonys Martin is available to pinch hit off the bench, and JaCoby Jones will replace him atop the order.
Rays right-handed starter Jacob Faria claims conflicting home/road splits that favor hitters when Faria pitches away from Tropicana Field. He’s allowed a .467 slugging percentage and a 1.462 WHIP on the road during his career, and he’s already yielded 12 runs in two road starts this season. However, the Tigers’ implied total has dropped 0.4 runs since the line opened, and their Team Value Rating on DraftKings and FanDuel is no higher than 77. The top two hitters in the lineup — Jones and Jeimer Candelario — have a recent hard-hit rate of 45%, countering Faria’s slate-high 51% hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Neither costs more than $3400 on FanDuel, and they form an intriguing mini-stack.
Brewers (-117) at Reds (+108) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds in: Alex Blandino
Reds out: Scooter Gennett (shoulder)
Scooter Gennett won’t start Monday due to tenderness in his right shoulder. Alex Blandino will bat seventh for a Reds lineup currently implied to score 4.6 runs. Overall, each of Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, and Billy Hamilton have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Winker, in particular, is set up well, as he ranks among the top-10 outfielders in Monday’s main slate in wOBA and ISO differential vs. righties over the past calendar year. Still, Jhoulys Chacin has historically done a great job limiting the long ball, as he’s one of just four pitchers in Monday’s main slate that have allowed less than one home run per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months.
Yankees (+143) at Astros (-155) — 8:10 PM EST
Yankees in: Austin Romine
Yankees out: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge will rest Monday, and Austin Romine will catch Sonny Gray, who has performed better when Romine has been behind the plate compared to DH Gary Sanchez. Didi Gregorius will move up to the two-hole in Judge’s absence.
The Yankees are one of five teams in the main slate presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and none of their hitters offer more than five Pro Trends on FanDuel or DraftKings. They have the lowest Team Value Rating on both sites, and Astros right-hander Charlie Morton has emerged as one of the top pitching options in the Bales Model. He leads all pitchers on the main slate in recent batted-ball distance allowed and exit velocity while generating a 58% recent groundball rate. He’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and not too far behind on DraftKings. Despite Morton’s stellar numbers, Minute Maid Park will open the roof and winds are projected to blow toward left field. Morton has averaged 21.5 DraftKings points per game at home when the roof is closed and only 15.19 DraftKings points per game when the roof is open.
Pictured: JaCoby Jones, Jeimer Candelario
Photo via: John Raoux — Associated Press
