Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rays (+186) at Red Sox (-203) — 1:05 PM EST
Rays in: John Field
Ray out: Carlos Gomez
The Rays will roll with Denard Span, C.J. Cron, and Joey Wendle at the top of the order for their matchup against the Red Sox. They’re currently implied to score just 3.5 runs against Rick Porcello, who has pitched at least six innings in all four of his starts this season. Porcello is set up well against a Rays lineup that has combined to post a mediocre .282 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’ll look to continue to limit the long ball, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Porcello is particularly in play on FanDuel, where his $9,200 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.9 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus. Be sure to monitor the weather, as the current forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of precipitation.
Red Sox in: Tzu-Wei Lin
Red Sox out: Mookie Betts (tight right hamstring)
Mookie Betts is sidelined due to a tight right hamstring, so Eduardo Nunez will lead off for a Red Sox lineup currently implied to score 5.1 runs. They’re especially in play on FanDuel, where the Red Sox boast the fifth-highest Team Value Rating in Sunday’s main slate. Overall, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model on FanDuel. Each of the top-five batters in the Red Sox lineup have a Bargain Rating of at least 60 percent on FanDuel. They’re set up well against Matt Andriese, who has posted a 1.408 WHIP and allowed 1.43 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months. Andriese needs to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Be sure to monitor the weather, as the current forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of precipitation.
Tigers (+138) at Orioles (-150) — 1:05 PM EST
Tigers in: Victor Reyes
Tigers out: Leonys Martin
Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez will bat third, fourth, and fifth for a Tigers lineup currently implied to score 4.1 runs. The Tigers don’t offer much upside throughout the lineup, as only Martinez and Dixon Machado have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. It’s good news for Kevin Gausman, who has averaged 9.16 K/9 and a 1.42 WHIP over the past calendar year. Gausman carries a respectable 6.4 K Prediction and has a great matchup against a Tigers lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .262 wOBA vs. righties over the past 12 months. Exposure to Gausman should be focused on DraftKings, where his $6,800 price tag comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.54 Projected Plus/Minus.
Mariners (+104) at Indians (-113) — 1:10 PM EST
Indians in: Erik Gonzalez
Indians out: Jason Kipnis
Bradley Zimmer will bat second in place of Jason Kipnis, who is believed to be fine and just receiving a regular day off. The Indians are currently implied to score a solid 4.7 runs, although estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour blowing in from left field won’t help either offense. Marco Gonzales will have his hands full with Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, and Brandon Guyer, as each has posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Still, Gonzales has done a great job limiting big hits this season, ranking among the top-five pitchers in Sunday’s main slate in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. The Mariners-Indians’ matchup currently has the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Sunday’s main slate.
Cardinals (-133) at Pirates (+123) — 1:35 PM EST
Cardinals in: Harrison Bader
Cardinals out: Jose Martinez
Jose Martinez will rest for a Cardinals lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.3 runs. Matt Carpenter is positioned well as the leadoff hitter, as he’s averaged 8.7 DraftKings points per game with a +0.8 Plus/Minus and a 44.8 percent Consistency Rating in 440 games in the No. 1 spot since 2014. Overall, Carpenter ranks among the top-three second basemen in Sunday’s main slate in wOBA and ISO differential vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’ll look to continue to crush the ball, as he’s posted an average batted ball distance of 242 feet with an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour over the past 15 days. Nick Kingham will make his major league debut with the third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Sunday’s main slate, although estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour out to center don’t bode well for either pitcher.
Pictured: Eduardo Nunez
Photo via Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
