Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Brewers (+137) at Cubs (-149) — 8:05 PM EST
Cubs in: Tommy La Stella
Cubs out: Kris Bryant (laceration above eye)
Kris Bryant will miss his third consecutive game. The Cubs will roll with Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez at the top of the order for their matchup against the Brewers. They’re currently implied to score 4.7 runs and boast the main slate’s second-highest Team Value Rating on DraftKings. Overall, Almora, Anthony Rizzo, Tommy La Stella, Victor Caratini, and Addison Russell form the main slate’s highest-rated five-man stack in terms of Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Still, only Schwarber and Rizzo have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Chase Anderson carries a nice 6.9 K Prediction and offers upside against a Cubs lineup that has combined to strike out every .267 at bats over the past calendar year – tied for the second-highest mark in Thursday’s main slate. Anderson will look to continue to limit big hits, as he’s posted slate-low marks in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
White Sox (+150) at Royals (-163) — 8:15 PM EST
White Sox in: Leury Garcia
White Sox out: Jose Abreu (flu-like symptoms)
Jose Abreu left Wednesday’s game early due to flu-like symptoms, and he’ll remain sidelined Thursday. Leury Garcia will bat fifth for a White Sox lineup currently implied to score four runs. Jake Junis is set up well at home against a White Sox lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .274 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers. Junis carries a solid 6.8 K Prediction and gets the night’s best matchup in terms of combined strike out rate over the past calendar year. Still, Junis will have to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 12 months. Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Garcia are the only White Sox batters that have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. righties. Moncada in particular is in play, as he’s the highest-rated second baseman on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model.
Royals in: Abraham Almonte
Royals out: Whit Merrifield
Whit Merrifield will be replaced by Abraham Almonte, who will bat second for a Royals lineup currently implied to score a slate-high 5.1 runs. They boast the main slate’s highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Jorge Soler form the main slate’s second-highest rated three-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Duda in particular is set up well on FanDuel, as his $2,400 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and a slate-high +1.37 Projected Plus/Minus. He ranks among the top-two first basemen in Thursday’s main slate in ISO and wOBA differential vs. righties over the past 12 months. Estimated wind gusts of six miles per hour out to right field could prove problematic for Lucas Giolito, as he’s one of just two pitchers in Thursday’s main slate that have allowed a fly-ball rate above 50 percent over the past 15 days. Only Salvador Perez, Soler, and Alcides Escobar have posted negative ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Pictured: Jorge Soler and Lucas Duda
Photo via Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports
