Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Indians (-173) at Orioles (+159) — 7:05 PM EST
Orioles in: Anthony Santander
Orioles out: Trey Mancini (right knee)
The Orioles will roll with Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, and Manny Machado at the top of the order for their matchup against the Indians. Each of Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Chance Sisco, and Anthony Santander have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, but they still don’t offer a ton of upside considering the Orioles are currently implied to score just 3.3 runs – the second-lowest mark in Monday’s main slate. They’ll have their hands full opposite Carlos Carrasco, who is the top-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Overall, Carrasco has posted a 1.11 WHIP and averaged 10.15 K/9 over the past 12 months. He’s set up well against an Orioles lineup that has combined to strike out every .272 at bats over the past calendar year – the third-highest mark in Monday’s main slate. Carrasco is especially in play on FanDuel, where his $9,600 price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating and a slate-high +9.79 Projected Plus/Minus.
Angels (+176) at Astros (-192) — 8:10 PM EST
Angels in: Zack Cozart
Angels out: Andrelton Simmons (right forearm contusion)
Andrelton Simmons was hit by a pitch Sunday and won’t suit up against the Astros. Zack Cozart will start at shortstop and bat sixth for an Angels lineup currently implied to score just 3.6 runs. Mike Trout will look to stay hot, as he’s racked up 13 hits in his last eight games – including four home runs. Overall, Trout ranks among the main slate’s top-six outfielders in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. He’ll face off against Gerrit Cole, who has a respectable 6.5 K Prediction. Cole will need to do a better job at forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 217 feet with a 48% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. The Angels-Astros’ matchup currently has the third-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate.
Padres (+154) at Rockies (-167) — 8:40 PM EST
Padres in: Franchy Cordero
Padres out: Manuel Margot
Franchy Cordero will lead off for a Padres lineup currently implied to score 4.9 runs at Coors Field. The Padres are especially in play on FanDuel, as their Team Value Rating of 83 is currently the second-highest mark in Monday’s main slate. Overall, Cordero, Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva, and Freddy Galvis form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Chad Bettis will have his hands full with a Padres lineup that has combined to post a .345 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Monday’s main slate. The Padres-Rockies’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate, although both offenses will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour coming in from left field.
Rockies in: Chris Iannetta
Rockies out: Tony Wolters
Tony Wolters will get the start at catcher for a Rockies lineup currently implied to score a slate-high 6.3 runs. The Rockies are especially in play on DraftKings, as they currently boast a slate-high Team Value Rating of 88. Overall, D.J. LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and David Dahl form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Dahl are the first-, second-, and fourth-highest rated batters on DraftKings in the Bales Model. The only cause for concern is the team’s underwhelming historical performance against righties, as only Blackmon and Wolters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Still, Bryan Mitchell has struggled to limit big hits to batters of all handiness this season, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Marlins (+241) at Dodgers (-265) — 10:10 PM EST
Marlins in: Yadiel Rivera, Cameron Maybin
Marlins out: Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour
Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour will both receive a day of rest, and Miguel Rojas will move up to the leadoff spot while Yadiel Rivera gets his third start of the season. The Marlins are presently implied to score a slate-low 3.0 runs, and their implied total has decreased 0.2 runs since the line opened. Walker Buehler, who has a salary on DraftKings ($6200) but no salary on FanDuel, is slated to make his first start of the season. It’s unclear if Buehler will have a tight leash, but he’s in a solid spot to rack up strikeouts. The current amalgamation of Marlins has combined to average the fourth-lowest team wOBA on the main slate.
Dodgers in: Enrique Hernandez
Dodgers out: Corey Seager
Corey Seager is the lone Dodger with a day off, and he’ll be replaced at shortstop and in the order by Enrique Hernandez, who leads the Dodgers in wOBA and ISO differential against left-handed pitchers over the past year. The Dodgers presently have the highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel at 87, and Hernandez costs an affordable $2500 on FanDuel. The Dodgers are also one of four teams presently implied to score at least 5.1 runs on the main slate, and pairing Hernandez with Matt Kemp, who also costs $2500 on FanDuel and will bat behind Hernandez, is one way to save salary if stacking Coors Field.
Pictured: Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez
Photo via: Stephen Dunn — Getty Images
