Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Pirates (+104) at Phillies (-113) — 7:05 PM EST
Phillies in: Aaron Altherr
Phillies out: Nick Williams
Aaron Altherr will bat fifth for a Phillies lineup currently implied to score 4.1 runs. Carlos Santana, Andrew Knapp, and J.P. Crawford are particularly set up well, as each player has posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ll face off against Ivan Nova, who has averaged 6.93 K/9 and a 1.31 WHIP over the past calendar year. Nova will have his hands full with a Phillies lineup that has combined to post a .329 wOBA vs. righties, although he carries a decent 6.0 K Prediction. Nova is particularly in play on DraftKings, where his $6,300 price tag comes with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and a strong +5.16 Projected Plus/Minus. The Pirates-Phillies’ matchup currently has the fourth-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Friday’s main slate.
Royals (-104) at Tigers (-104) — 7:10 PM EST
Tigers out: Miguel Cabrera
Tigers in: Niko Goodrum
Miguel Cabera will rest for the second game of the Tigers’ doubleheader against the Royals. They’re currently implied to score 4.0 runs against Jake Junis, who has averaged 7.7 K/9 and a 1.24 WHIP over the past 12 months. Junis needs to do a better job at forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Still, he’s set up well against a Tigers lineup that has combined to posted a .254 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the second-lowest mark in Friday’s main slate. Among the Tigers starters, only Dixon Machado, Victor Martinez, and Niko Goodrum have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Mets (-139) at Braves (+128) — 7:35 PM EST
Mets in: Jay Bruce
Mets out: Juan Lagares
The Mets will roll with Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, and Asdrubal Cabrera at the top of the lineup for their matchup against the Braves. They’ll have their hands full with Sean Newcomb, who has done a great job limiting big hits all season. Overall, Newcomb ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. His average of 10.34 K/9 over the past 12 months demonstrates his strikeout upside, and Newcomb’s 9.4 K Prediction is the second-highest mark in Friday’s main slate. The Mets are one of just four teams in Friday’s main slate that have combined to strike out at least every .300 at bats since the beginning of last season. Only Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws among the Mets’ eight position players.
Mariners (+112) at Rangers (-121) — 8:05 PM EST
Rangers in: Jurickson Profar (concussion)
Jurickson Profar has cleared the concussion protocol and will bat second for a Rangers lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.7 runs. Both offenses will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour blowing in from center. Still, the Rangers are set up well against Felix Hernandez, who has allowed slate-high marks in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. They’re particularly in play on DraftKings, where the Rangers currently boast a slate-high Team Value Rating of 86. Overall, Shin-Soo Choo, Profar, and Adrian Beltre form the main slate’s highest-rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Profar and Choo rank among the slate’s top-four batters in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Reds (+186) at Cardinals (-203) — 8:15 PM EST
Cardinals in: Harrison Bader
Cardinals out: Dexter Fowler
Tommy Pham will lead off in place of Dexter Fowler, while Harrison Bader will bat seventh and start in right field. The Cardinals are currently one of just four teams in Friday’s main slate with an implied run total of at least 5.1, although they’ll have to deal with estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing in from center. They do have a solid matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who is one of just three pitchers in Friday’s main slate that have allowed a hard-hit rate higher than 40 percent over the past 15 days. Finnegan has allowed a slate-high 2.394 WHIP over the past 12 months and will face off against a Cardinals lineup that has combined to post a .318 wOBA vs. southpaws. Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Bader, and Paul Dejong form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack in combined ISO.
Cubs (+105) at Rockies (-114) — 8:40 PM EST
Rockies in: Ian Desmond, Nolan Arenado
Rockies out: Carlos Gonzalez (tweaked right hamstring)
Carlos Gonzalez isn’t expected to be placed on the disabled list and is tentatively available as a pinch hitter Friday against the Cubs. The Rockies will roll with D.J. LeMahieu, Chris Iannetta, and Charlie Blackmon in the slate’s highest implied matchup at Coors Field. LeMahieu and Iannetta are particularly in play on DraftKings, where they rank among the top-12 highest-rated batters in the Bales Model, Overall, both players possess a Bargain Rating of 63 percent and have posted a wOBA of at least .300 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Rockies are currently one of just four teams with an implied run total of at least 5.1 runs, although they offer mediocre Team Value Ratings on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Getting after Kyle Hendricks has historically been easier said than done, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past calendar year.
Red Sox (-138) at Athletics (+127) — 10:05 PM EST
Red Sox in: Mitch Moreland
Red Sox out: J.D. Martinez
J.D. Martinez will rest for the Red Sox in their matchup against the Athletics Friday. The Red Sox are still implied to score 4.9 runs against Kendall Graveman, who has averaged just 5.91 K/9 and a 1.57 WHIP over the past 12 months. Overall, Graveman is the lowest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. The Red Sox are especially in play on FanDuel, where Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, and Mitch Moreland form the fourth-highest rated four-man stack in the Bales Model. Ramirez in particular has crushed the ball recently, posting an average batted ball distance of 231 feet with an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour.
Pictured: Gerardo Parra and Ryan McMahon
Photo via Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
