Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 6:45 pm ET.
White Sox (+143) at Blue Jays (-155) — 7:07 PM EST
CWS notable absences/replacements: Nicky Delmonico –> Leury Garcia
CWS Notes: The White Sox plan on using Delmonico against lefties on a case-by-case basis, so Garcia will draw the start and bat seventh against the Blue Jays southpaw. Garcia hit .302 against lefties last season, although just four of his 22 total extra-base hits came against left-handed pitchers. The whole White Sox lineup will have their hands full trying to generate power against Jaime Garcia, who ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months. Exposure to Garcia should be focused on FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a +7.58 Projected Plus/Minus – the third-highest mark among all pitchers.
TOR notable absences/replacements: None.
Red Sox (-125) at Marlins (+115) — 7:10 PM EST
BOS notable absences/replacements: J.D. Martinez –> Rafael Devers.
BOS Notes: Martinez will rest and hand the fourth spot in the lineup over to Devers. The Red Sox will roll with Betts, Benintendi, and Ramirez at the top of their order against the Marlins. They’ll face off against the righty Richards, who will make his major league debut vs. a Red Sox lineup currently implied to score 4.8 runs. Overall, Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers form the main slate’s second-highest rated three-man stack against right-handed pitchers on DraftKings in the Bales Model. They’ll have to deal with winds gusting in from center at an estimated nine miles per hour, but Marlins Park has the most hitter-friendly Park Rating in Monday’s main slate. The Red Sox lineup has combined to strike out every .178 at bats over the past 12 months – the lowest mark in Monday’s main slate.
MIA notable absences/replacements: None.
Nationals (-118) at Braves (+109) — 7:35 PM EST
WAS notable absences/replacements: Adam Eaton –> Wilmer Difo. Matt Wieters (mild strained left oblique) –> Pedro Severino.
WAS Notes: Difo will start in place of the NL’s reigning player of the week and bat seventh. Wieters was placed on the 10-day disabled list, so Severino will catch and bat eighth. Turner will lead off in place of Eaton, but he’s posted negative ISO and wOBA splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Rendon, Zimmerman, and Kendrick have each averaged positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws since the beginning of last season, and they form the main slate’s third-best three-man stack in combined ISO. They’re set up well against Newcomb, who has posted a 1.60 WHIP over the past calendar year – the fourth-worst mark in Monday’s main slate. Still, he has done a solid job limiting the long ball, as he ranks among the slate’s top-three pitchers in fewest home runs allowed per nine innings,
ATL notable absences/replacements: None
Dodgers (-110) at Diamondbacks (+102) — 9:40 PM EST
LAD notable absences/replacements: Chris Taylor –> Matt Kemp.
LAD Notes: Kemp will take Taylor’s spot in the outfield, while Pederson will lead off for the Dodgers in their matchup against the Diamondbacks. Pederson is set up well against Walker, as he’s posted a .331 wOBA and a .207 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Pederson is one of just 10 outfielders on Monday’s main slate with an ISO differential over .100 vs. righties over the past calendar year. Walker hasn’t exactly done a great job limiting the deep ball, as he ranks among the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed since the beginning of last season. The rest of the Dodgers lineup also offers value, with Seager, Puig, Grandal, and Bellinger forming the slate’s second-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model.
ARI notable absences/replacements: None.
Rockies (-102) at Padres (-106) — 10:10 PM EST
COL notable absences/replacements: Ryan McMahon –> Ian Desmond.
COL Notes: Desmond was questionable for Monday’s game with a sore knee, but he’ll bat fifth against the Padres. He’s posted a .312 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, but hasn’t consistently offered the type of power that most expect from first basemen. Overall, Desmond has posted slate-low marks among all first basemen in average batted ball distance and exit velocity over the past 12 months. He’ll have his hands full with Mitchell, who ranks among the slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate over the past calendar year.
SD notable absences/replacements: Hunter Renfroe –> Wil Myers.
SD Notes: Myers missed Saturday’s game with a sore back, but he’ll bat second for the Padres in their matchup against the Rockies Monday. He’s in play on FanDuel, where he has a 63 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.47 Projected Plus/Minus. Still, Myers and the Padres have their work cut out for them considering they’ve combined to post a pedestrian .287 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Bettis doesn’t offer much strikeout upside, as he’s one of just four pitchers on the slate that have averaged fewer than six K/9 over the past calendar year. His 4.1 K Prediction is tied for the third-lowest mark in Monday’s main slate.
Pictured above: Trea Turner
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove- USA Today Sports
