Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Giants (+137) at Diamondbacks (-149) — 9:40 PM EST
Giants out: Joe Panik
Giants in: Kelby Tomlinson
Joe Panik has been scratched Wednesday in favor of Kelby Tomlinson, who will start at second base and bat seventh for the Giants in their matchup against the Diamondbacks. The Giants are currently implied to score just 3.6 runs against Robbie Ray, who has averaged 12.66 K/9 and a 1.23 WHIP over the past 12 months. Ray is set up well against a Giants lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .301 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. He carries plenty of upside thanks to a slate-high 8.8 K Prediction. Ray will take on a lineup highlighted by Buster Posey, who is the Giants only batter with wOBA and ISO differentials greater than .1 against lefties over the past 12 months.
Indians (-113) at Twins (+104) — 7:10 PM EST
Twins out: Byron Buxton (migraines)
Twins in: Max Kepler
The Twins will again be without Byron Buxton as he continues to deal with migraine symptoms. Max Kepler will start in center field and bat seventh. It’s bad news for a Twins lineup that is currently implied to score just 3.7 runs – the third-lowest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Carlos Carrasco is the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel on the Bales Model thanks in large part to his high strikeout upside. Overall, Carrasco has averaged 10.1 K/9 over the past calendar year and has an 8.2 K Prediction. The Twins have combined to strikeout every .264 at bats over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Carrasco will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Nationals (-102) at Mets (-106) — 7:10 PM EST
Nationals out: Anthony Rendon (sore left big toe)
Nationals in: Wilmer Difo
Anthony Rendon is still dealing with a sore left big toe, so Wilmer Difo will bat seventh for a Nationals lineup currently implied to score four runs. They’re set up well against Steven Matz, who has posted a 1.495 WHIP over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Matz has historically struggled to limit the long ball, allowing a slate-high 1.809 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months. Each of Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, and Difo have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Zimmerman in particular is dangerous, as he ranks among the slate’s top-three first basemen in both wOBA and ISO vs. left-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season. Exposure to Zimmerman should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,500 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.79 Projected Plus/Minus.
Phillies (+106) at Braves (-115) — 7:35 PM EST
Phillies out: Carlos Santana
Phillies in: Rhys Hoskins
Carlos Santana will receive his first rest day of the season. Rhys Hoskins will slide over to first base, and Scott Kingery will draw the start in left field. Kingery and Hoskins will bat second and fourth, respectively, for a Phillies lineup currently implied to score 4.2 runs. Hoskins is particularly in play on DraftKings, where he’s the fifth-highest rated batter on the Bales Model. Overall, he’s posted the third-highest wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among all outfielders in Wednesday’s main slate. The Phillies-Braves’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate. Still, Brandon McCarthy has done a solid job limiting big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s top-four pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Pictured: The Philadelphia Phillies
Photo via Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
