Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 7:30 pm ET.
Reds (+179) at Phillies (-195) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Phillip Ervin –> Jesse Winker (illness).
CIN Notes: Winker will lead off for the Reds after being scratched with an illness Monday. He’s set up well against Nola, as Winker has posted a .438 wOBA and a .275 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, he ranks among the top-five outfielders in Tuesday’s main slate in wOBA and ISO differential vs. righties. Still, Nola has done a great job limiting big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. The Reds are currently implied to score just 3.1 runs – tied for the second-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
PHI notable absences/replacements: None.
Braves (+201) at Nationals (-220) — 7:05 PM EST
ATL notable absences/replacements: None.
WAS notable absences/replacements: Adam Eaton (left ankle bone bruise) –> Brian Goodwin. Howie Kendrick (leg) –> Michael Taylor.
WAS Notes: Kendrick’s leg injury isn’t severe, but Taylor will bat sixth in his place. Eaton was scratched with a bone bruise in his left ankle, so Goodwin will lead off. The Nationals boast the worst Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel among teams currently implied to score more than four runs. Still, Foltynewicz has had a hard time limiting big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. His issues could be exploited by both Harper and Turner, who have each posted positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Blue Jays (-128) at Orioles (+118) — 7:05 PM EST
TOR notable absences/replacements: Kendrys Morales (strained right hamstring) –> Kevin Pillar.
TOR Notes: Morales is on the 10-day disabled list, so Pillar will bat seventh against the Orioles. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs, and each of Granderson, Solarte, Martin, and Diaz have posted positive ISO and wOBA differentials vs. righties over the past 12 months. Overall, Granderson, Donaldson, Smoak, and Pearce form the slate’s sixth-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. They’re set up well against Cashner, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
BAL notable absences/replacements: None.
Mets (-190) at Marlins (+174) — 7:10 PM EST
NYM notable absences/replacements: Jay Bruce –> Michael Conforto. Adrian Gonzalez –> Wilmer Flores.
NYM Notes: The Mets will roll with Conforto, Cespedes, and Flores at the top of the order for their matchup against the Marlins. They’re currently implied to score a solid 4.7 runs and have the third-highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Conforto, Cespedes, Frazier, Cabrera, and Plawecki form the slate’s fourth-highest rated five-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Smith has allowed 20 earned runs in 27 innings pitched over the past two years and has posted a brutal 1.797 WHIP over the past calendar year – the third-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
MIA notable absences/replacements: None.
Yankees (+113) at Red Sox (-122) — 7:10 PM EST
NYY notable absences/replacements: Brett Gardner –> Shane Robinson. Jace Peterson –> Gary Sanchez (right calf).
NYY Notes: Sanchez will return to the lineup and bat cleanup for the Yankees in their matchup against the Red Sox. They’re currently implied to score just 3.1 runs against Sale, who has averaged 27.4 DraftKings points per game with a +5.4 Plus/Minus and a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating in his last nine starts against the Yankees. Still, Sale will have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .384 wOBA vs. lefties over the past 12 months. Both offenses should benefit from conditions that result in the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating on Tuesday’s main slate.
BOS notable absences/replacements: Xander Bogaerts (crack in left ankle) –> Brock Holt.
BOS Notes: Bogaerts is on the 10-day disabled list and is expected to miss 10-14 days. The Red Sox will roll with Betts, Benintendi, and Ramirez at the top of the order for their matchup against the Yankees. They’ll have their hands full with Severino, who has posted a 1.032 WHIP and averaged 10.84 K/9 over the past calendar year. Severino carries a 7.7 K Prediction and has a good matchup against a Red Sox lineup currently implied to score just 3.4 runs. He’s the fourth- and sixth-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.
Astros (-156) at Twins (+144) — 8:10 PM EST
HOU notable absences/replacements: None.
MIN notable absences/replacements: Max Kepler –> Ryan LaMarre. Ehire Adrianza –> Eduardo Escobar.
MIN Notes: The Twins are currently implied to score just 3.6 runs against Keuchel and the Astros. Overall, only Dozier, Sano, and Garver have posted positive ISO and wOBA differentials vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Exposure to Keuchel should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,300 price tag comes with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and a +8.66 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s set up well against a Twins lineup that has combined to post a .308 wOBA vs. lefties over the past 12 months – the fourth-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Brewers (+151) at Cardinals (-164) — 8:15 PM EST
MIL notable absences/replacements: Lorenzo Cain (left foot) –> Brett Phillips.
MIL Notes: The Brewers will roll with Sogard, Thames, and Santana at the top of the order for their matchup against the Cardinals. They’re currently implied to score a mediocre 3.3 runs and have a tough matchup against Martinez, who carries a 7.7 K Prediction. He has a great matchup against a Brewers lineup that has combined to strike out every .298 at bats over the past 12 months – the highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Exposure to Martinez should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,700 price tag comes with a 91 percent Bargain Rating and a +8.55 Projected Plus/Minus. Overall, Martinez is the second-highest rated pitcher on FanDuel in the Bales Model.
STL notable absences/replacements: Jose Martinez (right Achilles contusion) –> Harrison Bader.
STL Notes: Martinez isn’t believed to be dealing with a severe injury, but he’ll sit out Tuesday. Carpenter, Ozuna, and Molina will bat third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, against the Brewers. Molina is appealing his one-game suspension and is set up well against Suter. Overall, he’s posted a .338 wOBA and a .286 ISO vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Molina will look to continue to offer consistent extra-base hit upside, as he ranks among the slate’s top-five catchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 12 months.
Padres (+140) at Rockies (-152) — 8:40 PM EST
SD notable absences/replacements: None.
COL notable absences/replacements: Charlie Blackmon (tight right quad) –> Mike Tauchman.
COL Notes: Blackmon has been scratched due to tightness in his right quad. The Rockies will now roll with LeMahieu, Iannetta, and Arenado at the top of the order for their matchup against the Padres. They’re currently implied to score a slate-high 5.9 runs against Lucchesi, who has allowed an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour in two starts this season – the second-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Overall, LeMahieu, Iannetta, Arenado, and Story form the Rockies highest-rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. LeMahieu in particular is set up well, as he’s posted a .440 wOBA and a .217 ISO vs. southpaws over the past 12 months.
Athletics (-100) at Dodgers (-108) — 10:10 PM EST
OAK notable absences/replacements: Chad Pinder –> Stephen Piscotty.
OAK Notes: Piscotty will bat seventh for the Athletics in their matchup against the Dodgers. They have a tough matchup against Ryu, as only Smolinski has posted positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Still, Ryu has struggled to limit big hits this season, ranking among the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He does offer strikeout upside against an Athletics lineup that has combined to strike out every .296 at bats over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
LAD notable absences/replacements: None.
Diamondbacks (-107) at Giants (-101) — 10:15 PM EST
ARI notable absences/replacements: David Peralta –> Jarrod Dyson.
ARI Notes: Dyson will lead off for a Diamondbacks lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.1 runs. They’ll face off against Beede, who will make his MLB debut. He’ll have his hands full with a rough top of the order highlighted by Goldschmidt, who has averaged a .392 wOBA and a .243 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Both offenses will benefit from estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour out to center field.
SF notable absences/replacements: Joe Panik –> Kelby Tomlinson.
SF Notes: The Giants will roll with Jackson, Belt, and McCutchen at the top of the order for their matchup against the Diamondbacks. They’re set up well against Corbin, as each of Jackson, Posey, McCutchen, and Tomlinson have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Each player carries a FantasyLabs projected ownership rate of 2-4 percent or less on DraftKings. Still, Corbin has continued to do a great job forcing hitters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s one of just two pitchers on Tuesday’s main slate with a ground-ball rate above 60 percent over the past 15 days.
Pictured above: Michael Conforto
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA Today Sports
