Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 12:30 am ET.
Yankees (-101) at Blue Jays (-107) — 1:07 PM EST
NYY notable absences/replacements: Gary Sanchez –> Austin Romine. Billy McKinney –> Miguel Andujar.
NYY Notes: Sanchez is receiving a regular rest day, but McKinney has been placed on the 10-day disabled list after spraining the AC joint in his left shoulder during Saturday’s matchup against the Blue Jays. Romine and Andujar will bat ninth and seventh, respectively. The Yankees still offer plenty of pop without their big-hitting catcher, as Judge, Stanton, and Andujar form the main slate’s best three-man stack in combined ISO. Still, Stroman has historically done a great job forcing batters to keep the ball on the ground, as he ranks among the slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months. He’ll have his hands full against a Yankees’ lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .375 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season.
TOR notable absences/replacements: None.
Cardinals (-147) at Mets (+136) — 1:10 PM EST
STL notable absences/replacements: None
NYM notable absences/replacements: Brandon Nimmo –> Juan Lagares. Adrian Gonzalez –> Wilmer Flores.
NYM Notes: Nimmo was scratched after experiencing flu-like symptoms, so Cabrera will lead off for the second straight game, and Lagares will get the start in center field. Flores will again start over Gonzalez. The Mets are currently implied to score just 3.5 runs and have a tough matchup against Weaver, who ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. Weaver has averaged a slate-high 11.04 K/9 over the past 12 months and has a strong 7.5 K Prediction. While he carries the second-highest projected ownership rate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, pitchers with a K Prediction between 7.5-8.0 have posted +2.75 and +4.3 Plus/Minuses on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, since 2014 (per our Trends tool).
Cubs (-204) at Marlins (+187) — 1:10 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Willson Contreras –> Victor Caratini. Ben Zobrist –> Jason Heyward.
CHC Notes: Caratini and Heyward will bat sixth and seventh, respectively, for the Cubs’ matchup against the Marlins. The value appears to be higher up in the order, as Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, and Schwarber form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Russell and Schwarber carry the lowest projected ownership rate among the aforementioned stack, and Russell has posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’re all set up well against the Marlins southpaw, as Peters has averaged a slate-worst 1.68 WHIP over the past calendar year.
MIA notable absences/replacements: Justin Bour –> Garrett Cooper. Miguel Rojas –> Yadiel Rivera.
MIA Notes: Cooper was questionable with a right wrist contusion, but he’ll start at first base and bat fifth against the Cubs. Rivera will start at shortstop and bat seventh. None of the Marlins are very attractive options with an implied total of just 3.3 runs — the second-lowest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Only Cooper and Brinson have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Quintana is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel, although he also carries the main slate’s highest projected ownership rate. Still, the high exposure might be warranted given Quintana’s slate-high 11.0 K Prediction and matchup against a Marlins’ lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .235 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year.
Red Sox (-107) at Rays (-101) — 1:10 PM EST
BOS notable absences/replacements: Andrew Benintendi –> Jackie Bradley. Hanley Ramirez –> Rafael Devers.
BOS Notes: Benintendi and Ramirez will both rest for the Red Sox in their matchup against the Rays. Devers and Bradley will bat second and seventh, respectively. The Red Sox currently boast a solid implied total of 4.3 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where every starter has a Bargain Rating of at least 50 percent. Overall, Betts, Devers, Bogaerts, and Moreland form the second-highest rated four-man stack in the Bales Model, with Betts and Devers coming in as the first and eighth highest-rated overall batters on FanDuel. Faria is one of just two pitchers on the main slate that has allowed fly-ball and hard-hit rates of at least 40 and 30 percent, respectively, over the past 12 months.
TB notable absences/replacements: None.
Astros (-155) at Rangers (+143) — 3:05 PM EST
HOU notable absences/replacements: None.
TEX notable absences/replacements: Delino Deshields –> Drew Robinson. Shin-Soo Choo –> Jurickson Profar.
TEX Notes: Deshields has been placed on the 10-day disabled list after suffering a fractured left hamate hook bone in his hand, while Choo will receive a routine day off. Profar and Robinson will bat eighth and ninth, respectively. Exposure to the Rangers should be focused on DraftKings, where they currently boast the main slate’s third-best Team Value Rating. Gallo, Mazara, and Chirinos form the third-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Cole will have his hands full with a Rangers’ lineup featuring four hitters that have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months in Gallo, Mazara, Odor, and Robinson. The Rangers do carry a low floor considering they’ve combined to strike out every .288 at bats over the past calendar year – the third-highest mark in Sunday’s main slate. Cole currently has a very good 7.0 K Prediction.
Nationals (-130) at Reds (+120) — 4:10 PM EST
WAS notable absences/replacements: Howie Kendrick –> Wilmer Difo.
WAS Notes: Difo will start at second base and bat ninth for the Nationals’ matchup against the Reds Sunday. Zimmerman will return to the lineup and bat fourth against Romano, who is one of just six pitchers on the all-day slate to have posted a WHIP above 1.4 over the past 12 months. Zimmerman has posted a .379 wOBA and .259 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year and routinely carries extra-base hit potential. Overall, he’s posted an average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour with a 40 percent hard-hit rate.
CIN notable absences/replacements: None.
Indians (-133) at Mariners (+123) — 4:10 PM EST
CLE notable absences/replacements: None.
SEA notable absences/replacements: Nelson Cruz –>Dan Vogelbach.
SEA Notes: Cruz twisted his ankle while walking down the dugout steps following his home run Saturday. Vogelbach will work as the offense’s designated hitter and bat sixth for a Mariners’ lineup currently implied to score just 3.5 runs. Still, Bauer hasn’t exactly done a great job at limiting big hits in the past, as he ranks among the all-day slate’s bottom-three pitchers in both average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 12 months. While Bauer has a solid 7.1 K Prediction, he has a sneaky-tough matchup against a Mariners’ lineup that ranks second in combined wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and third in fewest combined strikeouts per at bat.
Pictured above: The Boston Red Sox
Photo Credit: Kim Klement- USA Today Sports
