Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 5:35 pm ET.
Twins (-114) at Orioles (+105) — 7:05 PM EST
MIN notable absences/replacements: Eduardo Escobar –> Ehire Adrianza
MIN Notes: Adrianza will take over for Escobar at shortstop and bat sixth for the Twins’ matchup against the Orioles. The Twins are currently implied to score 4.7 runs against Cashner and have a slate-high Team Value Rating on FanDuel. Dozier, Mauer, and Sano form the slate’s third-highest rated three-man stack in the Bales Model. Morrison also carries value in the five hole thanks to his power upside, as his .292 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers is the second-highest mark among all first basemen in Saturday’s main slate. Cashner will have his hands full with a Twins’ lineup that has combined to post a .340 wOBA vs. righties over the past calendar year – the second-highest mark in Saturday’s main slate.
BAL notable absences/replacements: None
Cubs (-205) at Marlins (+188) — 7:10 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Albert Almora –> Ian Happ. Javy Baez –> Jason Heyward.
CHC Notes: The Cubs have rotated their leadoff hitters to start the season, and Happ will get the call against the righty Despaigne, who threw 11 pitches during yesterday’s 17-inning thriller. Zobrist will slide to second base, and Heyward will get a start in right field. They’re currently implied to score a slate-high 4.8 runs with a good matchup against one of the slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past calendar year. Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber form the slate’s best four-man stack in terms of combined ISO, although they each carry a FantasyLabs’ projected ownership rate of at least 9-12 percent. Both offenses should benefit from playing at Marlins Park, which boasts the slate’s most-hitter friendly park factor rating.
MIA notable absences/replacements: None.
White Sox (-100) at Royals (-108) — 7:15 PM EST
CWS notable absences/replacements: None
KC notable absences/replacements: Jorge Soler –> Paulo Orlando
KC Notes: Orlando will bat sixth for the Royals’ matchup against the White Sox. Although batters from both teams will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of 12 miles per hour blowing in from left, the Royals-White Sox matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly weather rating on Saturday’s main slate. The Royals are particularly in play on FanDuel, where they currently boast the slate’s third-highest Team Value Rating. Still, they carry a fairly low floor considering Giolito has posted a slate-best 0.968 WHIP over the past 12 months and faces a Royals’ lineup that has combined to post a mediocre .291 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers.
Rockies (+131) at Diamondbacks (-142) — 8:10 PM EST
COL notable absences/replacements: None
ARI notable absences/replacements: Ketel Marte –> Daniel Descalso. Chris Owings –> Jarrod Dyson.
ARI Notes: Lamb, Descalso, and Dyson will fill the 4-6 spots in the order for the Diamondbacks’ matchup against the Rockies. The whole lineup has FanDuel-friendly Bargain Ratings. Overall, Peralta, Pollock, Goldschmidt, and Descalso form the slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model. Descalso has a position-high +1.33 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel with position-high marks in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate over the past calendar year. Marquez has averaged 8.5 fewer FanDuel points per game with a -10.9 Plus/Minus differential on the road during his two-year career.
Brewers (-118) at Padres (+109) — 8:40 PM EST
MIL notable absences/replacements: Ryan Braun –> Eric Thames. Manny Pina –> Jeff Bandy. Hernan Perez –> Jonathan Villar.
MIL Notes: The Brewers will roll with Thames, Yelich, and Cain at the top of their order for their matchup against the Padres. Villar and Bandy will bat seventh and eighth, respectively. The whole lineup has a good matchup against the righty Perdomo, as he ranks among the slate’s bottom-three pitchers in WHIP over the past 12 months. Still, Perdomo has done a great job forcing batters to keep the ball on the ground, ranking among the slate’s top-two pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed. Thames will look to continue to mash right-handed pitchers, as he ranks among the slate’s top-five first basemen in both wOBA and ISO vs. righties since the beginning of last season.
SD notable absences/replacements: Myers –> Pirela. Spangenberg –> Villanueva
SD Notes: Myers is out with a sore back, so Pirela will bat second for the Padres’ matchup against the Brewers. Villanueva will fill in for Spangenberg in the five hole. Margot, Pirela, and Renfroe are the team’s only batter with positive wOBA and ISO splits against lefties over the past calendar year, and each has a Bargain Rating of at least 76 percent on FanDuel. Overall, Pirela, Renfroe, and Villanueva make up the second-best three-man stack in terms of ISO on Saturday’s main slate. Still, Suter has historically done a great job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 12 months.
Giants (+169) at Dodgers (-184) — 9:10 PM EST
SF notable absences/replacements: None
LAD notable absences/replacements: Corey Seager –> Enrique Hernandez. Yasmani Grandal –> Austin Barnes. Chase Utley –> Logan Forsythe.
LAD Notes: The Dodgers will roll with Taylor, Hernandez, and Puig at the top of the order for their matchup against the Giants. They form the highest-rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Holland is the slate’s lowest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, he’s surrendered bottom-two marks among all pitchers in Saturday’s main slate in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 12 months. Hernandez and Taylor are the slate’s top-two highest-rated batters in the Bales Model on DraftKings. They rank third and fourth, respectively, among all outfielders in Saturday’s main slate in wOBA vs. southpaws since the beginning of last season.
Pictured above: Joe Maddon and Kris Bryant
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas- USA Today Sports
