Weighted on-base average (wOBA) weighs all aspects of hitting proportionately and combines them into one metric. By giving different weights to a single, double, walk, etc., we can better assess a player based on this metric. Since its creation 10 years ago, wOBA has gone from a ‘stats junkie’ metric to a popular and fairly mainstream stat. Phrased differently: More people are now stats junkies.
In the daily fantasy sports community, wOBA is often relied upon in analyses of hitters and pitchers. Here’s the question: How valuable is wOBA from a DFS perspective when we’re evaluating batters?
Long-Term Opponent wOBA Allowed
There are two broad ways to look at wOBA: a hitter’s wOBA and a pitcher’s wOBA allowed. Using our Trends tool, we can see how hitters on FanDuel have historically performed based on the wOBA allowed of the opposing pitchers:
Over the sample, there is clear correlation between hitter production and pitcher wOBA allowed. Specifically, pitchers with wOBAs over .350 have historically been most exploitable. With at least a +0.68 Plus/Minus and 40-plus percent Consistency Rating, these are the pitchers to target with batters. The only caveat is that the ownership for these hitters tends to be elevated, probably because 1) DFS players are increasingly using this metric and 2) pitchers with high wOBAs allowed tend to be obviously bad and thus highly targeted anyway. Pro subscribers can review ownership in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Recent Opponent wOBA Allowed
In this trend, we look at how FanDuel hitters have done based on pitching data over the last 15 days:
Recent wOBA data has an almost perfectly positive correlation. As pitching data worsens, hitters perform much better. Intriguingly, although raw points and Plus/Minus values increase, there is very little change in ownership, which likely means that most DFS players are not as responsive to recent pitching data as they should be. (Pro subscribers can view recent opponent wOBA allowed in our Player Models.) In guaranteed prize pools, targeting pitchers with poor short-term wOBAs could provide an edge.
Conclusions
As wOBA continues to grow in popularity, the way that DFS players use it will need to evolve, especially since it’s possible that DraftKings and FanDuel could eventually rely on it more when setting their salaries. This preliminary research shows that, while targeting pitchers with poor long-term wOBAs has led to an edge in batter production, targeting pitchers with poor short-term wOBAs provides an edge in batter ownership.
Of course, while wOBA allowed is a decent predictor of future batter performance, the metric is likely to be most beneficial when used in combination with other Labs statistics and Vegas data. This is something to keep in mind when using our Lineup Builder as you create your DFS rosters.
