Rivalries exist in sports in large part thanks to divisional play. MLB teams play divisional opponents 17 to 18 times per season — more than twice as often as they play any given non-divisional opponent. Having six series per season against the same team inevitably leads to heightened familiarity, but how does this familiarity impact player production? Let’s find out.
Hitters vs. Divisional Opponents
Using our Trends tool, we can determine how hitters have produced against divisional opponents compared to non-divisional opponents:
Hitters have averaged slightly more points per game and higher Plus/Minus values outside of the division — but the difference has been slight. There are some intriguing ownership splits in the sample — Pro subscribers can review ownership in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after each main slate starts — but there’s probably not much of an edge to be gained by focusing on division/non-division matchups for batters when constructing rosters via the Lineup Builder in our Player Models.
Pitchers vs. Divisional Opponents
We see a small increase in hitter performance against non-divisional opponents. For pitchers, this trend is clear:
Since 2014, pitchers have been significantly better against non-divisional opponents in raw production, Plus/Minus value, and Consistency Rating. Intuitively, it makes sense that pitchers would perform better against opponents who aren’t as familiar with their tendencies, timing, ball placement, etc. If hitters can start to catch on to a pitcher in their second and third at-bats of a game, why couldn’t they gain an edge in the second or third game of the season against that pitcher?
Intriguingly, the effect of division/non-division splits doesn’t appear to be priced into either hitter or pitcher salaries. Let’s dig a little deeper to find the situations in which non-divisional hitters and pitchers most excel.
Pitchers and Hitters at Home vs. Non-Divisional Opponents
Both pitchers and hitters have seen a nice bump in their production when facing non-divisional opponents at home:
While the stat differentials are significantly larger for pitchers, it’s clear that both hitters and pitchers have performed better against non-divisional opponents at home. Still, this trend comes with a price, as both hitters and pitchers have had increased ownership in these optimal situations.
This study has taken into account the role familiarity might play in divisional/non-divisional splits. Pitchers (and marginally hitters) have suffered against the opponents they play the most often. They’ve done better against non-divisional opponents, and this production has gone to another level when we factor in the familiarity of home. Additionally, road trips are never easy on players, but they might be even tougher outside of division, given that players are theoretically less familiar with the road surroundings of and travel process to non-divisional (as opposed to divisional) cities.
Pitchers and Hitters as Favorites vs. Non-Divisional Opponents
Pitchers and hitters as Vegas favorites have also been especially lethal against non-divisional opponents:
The stat differentials for these cohorts are the largest we’ve seen yet. Pitchers in particular have been impressive when favored against non-division opponents, with Consistency differentials of around 10 percentage points. Given the size of these samples, that differential is almost unbelievable.
Takeaways
Here are a few takeaways:
- Hitters and pitchers have both performed better against non-divisional opponents in the past. The difference has been especially evident with pitchers.
- Hitters and pitchers have been substantially better against non-divisional opponents when playing at home. Facing familiar opponents hasn’t historically led to value, but facing non-familiar opponents in a familiar setting has.
- Hitters and pitchers have dominated non-divisional opponents as favorites. Players generally perform better as favorites regardless of who they play, but this is especially the case against non-divisional opponents.
Be sure to test out more trends and perform your own research with our Labs Tools!
