This is the first piece in a series of articles looking at batted ball data for both batters and pitchers. Statistics like exit velocity, batted ball distance, and hard hit rate are still relatively new to many daily fantasy players. FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales recently put out a video on how to use batted ball data within our Player Models. This series uses the suite of Labs Tools to explore the DFS value of Statcast data.
Exit Velocity
This is one stat that, though valuable, shouldn’t be considered in a vacuum. It needs to be contextualized. Using our Trends tool, we can take a closer look at the numbers for batters on FanDuel. This trend looks at hitters over the past two seasons with exit velocities of at least 95 miles per hour across three different ranges of batted ball distance:
Under 220 Feet
This cohort is the only one with a negative Plus/Minus, which could be due to an increased percentage of ground balls and shallow fly balls. While this subgroup has the lowest ownership, it also is the least productive and valuable.
221-250 Feet
This is the sweet spot of exit velocity and batted ball distance. With a trend-high +1.02 Plus/Minus and 38.6 percent Consistency Rating, this subgroup provides excellent value with batted balls that make it past the infield.
Over 250 Feet
This final subgroup is intriguing. It has a positive Plus/Minus, but it also has the lowest Consistency Rating and highest ownership of any subgroup. Particularly concerning is that ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard. What’s going on with this group? It’s full of power hitters. When they make contact, they crush the ball — but they don’t always make contact, and so as a group they are less consistent, productive, and valuable.
Bargain Rating
DraftKings has a reputation for adjusting players salaries quicker than FanDuel, which means that sometimes players will appear to be undervalued for a sustained period of time on the latter platform. This graphic displays the Plus/Minus values for batters with exit velocities of 95-plus mph and FanDuel Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent:
Given this information, it seems unlikely that exit velocity is used heavily (if at all) in FanDuel’s pricing algorithm.
Putting It All Together
Exit velocity on its own doesn’t mean much, because guys can hit the ball really hard straight into the ground and also straight into the sky. However, when we use the metric in combination with other Statcast data and Labs statistics, exit velocity becomes much more valuable. It’s also probable that exit velocity to great effect can be combined with data from our Vegas Dashboard. Once your research is complete, head over to our Lineup Builder to construct DFS rosters that leverage your Statcast insights.
