The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering 14-game all-day slates and five-game early slates starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, along with a five-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers who cost over $10,000:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,000, NYM @ MIA
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,200, HOU @ TEX
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,700, PHI @ WSH
- Corey Kluber ($10,200, CLE vs. CWS
- German Marquez (R) $10,000 @ TB
deGrom is available only on the all-day slate. He has the best outlook with his excellent 9.6 K Prediction against a projected Marlins lineup that has a high 29.6% strikeout rate and weak .282 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Additionally, the Marlins are implied for a slate-low 2.6 runs, by far the lowest run total of the day, so it’s not shocking to see the Mets as -220 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged an absurd +9.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 75.5% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Cole is the only pitcher among this group available on the main slate. Overall, Cole is dominating our pitcher projections for Wednesday night by nearly 15 points at the time of writing. He possesses a solid 9.0 K Prediction against a projected Rangers lineup that has a 24.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past year.
Cole could also benefit from Ron Kulpa being the ump for this game, as Kulpa has allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.40 to starting pitchers.
Nola checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the early slate. He’s not a bad play against a projected Nationals lineup with a 24.5% strikeout rate, but Nola’s 6.8 K Prediction and median projection pale in comparison to those of the other top-tier guys who are cheaper than him. And at the time of writing, the sharp money is starting to come in on the Nationals.
Kluber struggled in his first outing of the season against the Twins, but he’s got a better matchup this time around against a projected White Sox lineup that has a high 29.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. The Indians also check in as the early slate’s largest favorite (-190 moneyline), and the White Sox’s 3.0 implied run total is the slate’s lowest mark. Kluber projects very well in our models with a 49.9 median projection and +12.92 Projected Plus/Minus.
Marquez may be an interesting tournament option with his early slate-high 8.8 K Prediction against a projected Rays lineup with a 28.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. He could be an excellent contrarian play, given that the Rockies are +126 underdogs.
Still, the Rays are implied for just 3.8 runs. Moreover, pitchers with comparable odds and K Predictions have averaged a solid +4.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 63.6% Consistency Rating and only 6.3% average ownership. (Although his ownership will vary since the all-day slate is 14 games and the early slate is only five games.)
Values
Luis Castillo is a better value on FanDuel (90% Bargain Rating) than he is on DraftKings (8% Bargain Rating), but he could be used as an SP2 on DraftKings. His +6.76 Projected Plus/Minus is the fourth-best mark among the 10 pitchers on the mound for the early slate.
Values are hard to find on the five-game main slate, but on DraftKings, James Tallion likely makes the most sense. He has a decent 6.7 K Prediction, and the projected Cardinals lineup has a slate-high 25.6% strikeout against righties. The Cardinals are implied for a meager 3.7 runs, and it should help that Tallion will be at home, where he boasts a Park Factor of 87.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton: The Rays are -137 moneyline favorites and the Rockies are implied for just 3.3 runs. The main concern is that the projected Rockies lineup has a .338 wOBA, but Morton still has an 8.2 K Prediction along with a Park Factor of 83.
Ross Stripling: He and the Dodgers are the main slate’s largest favorite, as they’re currently at -204 on the moneyline. His relative lack of upside is concerning, since the Giants’ projected lineup has a 22.5% strikeout rate against righties, but they still have a weak .277 wOBA and are implied for only 3.1 runs.
Robbie Ray: The Diamondbacks are slight underdogs (+120 moneyline), but he possesses an 8.5 K Prediction against a projected Padres lineup that has a 26.3% strikeout rate and .291 .wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months.
Joey Lucchesi: He squares off against Ray, but Lucchesi has comparable metrics with his 7.6 K Prediction against a projected Diamondbacks lineup with a 26.7% strikeout rate and .294 wOBA. However, the Padres are -130 moneyline favorites, and the D-backs are implied for only 3.3 runs.
Matt Shoemaker: He appears to be healthy after going for 7.0 innings and striking out seven batters in his first start of the season. He should have an easy matchup on Wednesday against a projected Orioles lineup that has a 26.8% strikeout rate and abysmal .266 wOBA. The Jays are presently -164 on the moneyline.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
- 1. Jesse Winker (L)
- 2. Joey Votto (L)
- 4. Eugenio Suarez (R)
- 5. Scott Schebler (R)
Total Salary: $15,700
The Reds will square off against the right-handed Freddy Peralta. Peralta can be a high-strikeout guy (11.20 SO/9), but he can also get knocked around a bit. He had a 4.33 xFIP in 2018, and he got knocked around for four earned runs in his first start in just three innings before getting pulled.
Votto has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and even though he’s off to a slow start to the season, his +52 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky thus far. He’s in solid form with a 243-foot averaged batted ball distance and 94-mph exit velocity.
The top four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate from the CSURAM88 model belongs to the Houston Astros.
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 4. Michael Brantley (L)
- 5. Carlos Correa (R)
Total Salary: $15,400
The Astros will face Mike Minor, a left-handed pitcher whose 1.47 HR/9 is among the worst marks on the main slate. This could spell trouble for Minor and the Rangers, as the Astros have a 5.2 implied run total, the highest mark on the main slate.
Springer will be on the positive side of his splits, sporting a .369 wOBA and .210 ISO against lefties over the past year. He’s also in good form, evidenced by his 221-foot average batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
Correa could be due for some progression as he presently owns a +57 RBBL. Historically, batters hitting in the top five of the order with comparable RBBLs in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +3.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
On the early slate, the Twins’ 5.0 implied run total leads the slate by 0.6 runs. In fact, their run total has increased 0.3 since lines were first posted. Jorge Polanco will take on Homer Bailey, who lives up to his name, sporting a 2.06 HR/9 over the past 12 months. The switch-hitting Polanco has hit righties to the tune of a .369 wOBA and .147 ISO over the past year, and he’s in great form, posting a 237-foot average batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate.
Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna each have Bargain Ratings above 90% on DraftKings, and they’ve obliterated left-handed pitchers over the past year. Freeman boasts a .391 wOBA and a .212 ISO against them, while Acuna has an absurd .414 wOBA and .291 ISO. Sharp bettors are all over the Braves at the time of writing, as they’re seeing just 44% of the bets but 77% of the money.
On the all-day slate, Rowdy Tellez costs just $2,800 on FanDuel, giving him an 83% Bargain Rating. His +1.09 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel is the second-highest mark among the whole slate of games on Wednesday. Tellez has smashed the ball this season, possessing a 262-foot average batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Ronald Acuna
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
