The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel will each have a nine-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, and FanDuel will have a 15-game all-day slate beginning at the same time.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there is just one pitcher who costs over $10,000:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,200, CLE @ MIN
Carrasco was excellent last season, posting a 2.90 xFIP and a 3.03 SIERA. He won’t be a lock for a win today by any means since the Indians are sitting at -107 on the moneyline at the time of writing. However, he’s sporting a solid 7.6 K Prediction, and Carrasco will be in ideal pitching conditions on Sunday as this game has a Weather Rating of 96 for pitchers. Historically, pitchers in games with Weather Ratings in the 95th percentile have averaged a +1.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus since 2013 (per our Trends tool).
Interestingly, Carrasco also boasts some interesting home/road splits over the past six years. In 69 starts at home, he’s averaged 32.72 FanDuel points per game with a -0.26 Plus/Minus and a 53% Consistency Rating. On 68 road starts, he’s averaged 40.22 FanDuel points per game with a +6.93 Plus/Minus and 66% Consistency Rating.
Values
Jon Gray costs just $7,900 on FanDuel, giving him a 97% Bargain Rating. He had a 5.12 ERA last season, but his 3.47 xFIP is 1.65 runs lower than his ERA, suggesting he was rather unlucky. He’s my favorite option on the slate as Gray will take on a projected Marlins lineup that has a high 29.8% strikeout rate and abysmal .267 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
The Marlins’ 3.4 implied run total is one of the lowest marks on the slate, and Gray will be at the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, which will put him in an environment with an 85 Park Rating. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions against teams with similar implied run totals with comparable Park Factors have averaged a +8.02 Plus/Minus with an 82.8% Consistency Rating.
Michael Pineda didn’t have any major-league starts in 2018 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He had a decent spring training, posting an 8.9 SO/9 and 0.93 WHIP along with a 3.54 ERA. It’s also encouraging he pitched at least 5.0 innings in his last two spring training starts. Pineda could be difficult to trust in cash games on FanDuel, but he’s a viable option as an SP2 on DraftKings.
The positive pitching environment (71 Park Factor, 96 Weather Rating) is encouraging for his outlook, and he possesses a 6.8 K Prediction against a projected Indians lineup with a massive 32.5% strikeout rate and mediocre .275 wOBA. Additionally, the Twins are seeing most of the sharp money come in on them (29% of the bets but 70% of the money at the time of writing).
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: He will look to build off an amazing 2018 campaign in which he had a 2.61 xFIP and 2.91 SIERA, both marks well above league average. He leads the main slate with an 11.02 SO/9, along with an 8.3 K Prediction against the Mets, whose 3.3 implied run total is the second-lowest mark on the main slate.
J.A. Happ: He’s a solid option against a projected Orioles lineup that has a 27.4% strikeout rate and absurdly low .224 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Orioles possess the slate’s lowest implied run total (3.0), while the Yankees are massive -318 moneyline favorites. There is currently rain in the forecast so be sure to monitor the weather as lock approaches.
Walker Buehler: He’s only available on FanDuel’s all-day slate. It’s a good spot for him against a Diamondbacks team implied for only 3.1 runs. Walker boasts a 6.7 K Prediction and the Dodgers are presently -230 favorites on the moneyline. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a robust +9.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the New York Yankees.
- 1. Brett Gardner (L)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 4. Luke Voit (R)
- 5. Miguel Andujar (R)
Total Salary: $17,800
It’s no surprise the Yankees rate so highly in the CSU model since the Yankees’ 5.6 implied run total is the highest on the main slate by 0.8 runs. Historically, hitters that are batting in the top five of the order who are featured in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +1.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
These Yankees hitters have a sublime matchup against the right-handed Dylan Bundy, who has a ridiculous 2.24 HR/9 over the past year. Even though Bundy has the ability to strike batters out (8.0 K Prediction), the Yankees could do some damage against him considering he had a 45% fly-ball rate over the past 12 months.
Voit leads this stack with a 37% fly-ball rate over the past year while sporting a .448 wOBA and .316 isolated power (ISO) against righties in the same time frame.
The top four-man FanDuel stack when generated by ISO belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 4. Travis Shaw (L)
- 5. Jesus Aguilar (R)
- 6. Mike Moustakas (L)
Total Salary: $15,900
Other Batters
Joc Pederson is just available on the all-day slate. He’s off to an incredible start to the season, hitting .583 along with three home runs and five RBIs. Continuing to ride his hot streak doesn’t seem like a bad idea since he’ll be against a righty, which puts him on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits by a wide margin. His .175 wOBA and .184 ISO differential ranks inside the top five among all outfielders.
The switch-hitting Justin Smoak will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he has the third-highest median projection among first basemen. Further, he costs just $4,100, making him the 12th-most expensive first baseman. Teammate Randal Grichuk is also appealing with his .347 wOBA an .222 ISO. Smoak and Grichuk are both good ways to get exposure to the Jays’ 4.8 implied run total without paying a premium.
If you have the extra salary, Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter both project incredibly well. Goldy boasts a .395 wOBA and .248 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, while Carpenter has a solid .390 wOBA and .269 ISO in the same time frame. On FanDuel it’s possible to roster Smoak + Goldy since the utility spot is in play.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jon Gray
Photo credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
