The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s MLB slate differs by site. DraftKings features an 11-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:07 p.m. ET. FanDuel features a nine-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, and their afternoon slate is TBD.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate are priced at $10,000 or greater on FanDuel:
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,700, TB vs. BOS
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,500, WSH @ MIA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,300, LAD @ MIL
- Collin McHugh (R) $10,000, HOU @ TEX
Strasburg is easily the most appealing option among this quartet. He has an elite matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .277 wOBA and 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. As a result, Strasburg ranks first on the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and K Prediction (8.7). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.60 and a Consistency Rating of 62.3% on FanDuel, per our MLB Trends tool.
Strasburg has been roughed up over his past two outings, however, allowing 10 earned runs over just 10 innings, but his Statcast data suggests he was a bit unlucky. He allowed opposing batters to compile an average distance of 209 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 22%, all three of which are lower than his 12-month averages.
Glasnow has been outstanding so far this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.90 over his first four starts on FanDuel. He is coming off an uncharacteristic start in his last outing, though, managing just three strikeouts over seven innings — well below his 12-month K/9 rate of 10.36. The lack of strikeouts ultimately resulted in a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel despite him allowing just two earned runs.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20)
Unfortunately, Glasnow is tough to trust today against the Boston Red Sox. They have struggled offensively to start the season, but their projected lineup has posted a .332 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. Glasnow has also seen a price increase of +$3,100 on FanDuel since the start of the season and doesn’t offer the same upside at an elevated salary.
Kershaw made his first start of the season on Monday and turned in a solid outing, allowing two earned runs and recording six strikeouts over seven innings despite his offense failing to produce enough runs to get him a win. Add it all up and he posted 37.0 FanDuel points and a Plus/Minus of -2.24.
Kershaw’s best attribute in his last start was his ability to generate ground balls. Batters put the ball on the ground 72% of the time they made contact against him, resulting in an average batted-ball distance of just 174 feet. They did hit him pretty hard (hard-hit rate of 45% and average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour), but it’s hard for a pitcher to get into too much trouble when keeping the ball on the ground.
It will be interesting to see if Kershaw can do it again today in a difficult matchup vs. the Brewers. Christian Yelich has torn the cover off the ball to begin the season, and the Brewers rank in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ vs. left-handers in 2019. Vegas is not giving Kershaw the same level of respect we’re used to seeing: His opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs is pretty pedestrian. Ultimately, he carries more risk than usual today.
McHugh rounds out the high-priced options on FanDuel, and he’s pretty underrated from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.38 over his first four starts this season, thanks in part to a K/9 of 10.57. He was excellent last year as well, pitching to a 1.99 ERA over 72.1 innings out of the bullpen.
Of course, it also helps when you pitch for one of the best teams in baseball. McHugh’s opponent implied team total of 4.5 runs is the worst mark among the high-priced options, but the Astros’ implied team total of 6.6 runs comes with -213 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.01 on FanDuel. The fact that McHugh doesn’t have the same pedigree as pitchers like Strasburg and Kershaw should also result in reduced ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
James Paxton was dominant in his last start, shutting out the Red Sox over eight innings and adding in 12 strikeouts for good measure. He’s posted a K/9 of at least 10.38 in each of the past two seasons, which is a big part of the reason why the Yankees traded away valuable prospects to acquire him.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton (65)
Paxton has a nice matchup today vs. the Kansas City Royals. Their projected lineup has posted a .318 wOBA and 24.6% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied total of 3.4 runs is second-lowest on the slate.
Paxton also ranks third in K Prediction and first in moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.34 on DraftKings. He’s in contention for the top overall pitching spot on today’s slate.
Brett Anderson stands out as the top option on the afternoon slate. He’s not a strong strikeout pitcher – his K/9 is 5.26 over the past 12 months – but he makes up for it with an excellent Statcast profile. He has limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 189 feet and hard-hit rate of 22%, both of which are among the top marks on the slate.
Anderson’s matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays is nothing short of wonderful. The Jays have struggled mightily on offense, ranking just 22nd in runs per game and 27th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers. Their implied total of 3.5 runs is the second-lowest mark on the afternoon slate. On top of that, they’ve struck out in 26.4% of at bats vs. southpaws, giving Anderson more strikeout upside than usual.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray is always in play for GPPs given his elite 12-month K/9 of 11.60, and he should benefit from getting to pitch away from Chase Field. Since joining the Diamondbacks, Ray has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.1 when pitching on the road compared to +0.5 at home.
Joey Lucchesi provides an interesting combination of strikeout ability and recent Statcast data on the afternoon slate as he has maintained a K/9 of 9.89 over the past 12 months. Additionally, he has strong marks in 15-day/12-month distance differential (-10 feet) and hard-hit differential (-17%).
Noah Syndergaard has struggled over his past two starts, allowing nine earned runs over 12 innings, but his Statcast data suggests he’s been unlucky. He managed to strike out 16 batters in those two starts and has mammoth upside if some of the balls in play against him start finding gloves instead of grass.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
Total Salary: $15,000
The Twins are implied for 5.2 runs, tied with the Yankees for the highest mark on the FanDuel main slate. The Twins are also one of the best pure values on the site (Team Value Rating of 79).
Minnesota takes on Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy, who has been roughed up in the early going this season. He’s pitched to a 7.79 ERA, and his 7.51 FIP suggests he hasn’t even been particularly unlucky. His Statcast data over his past three starts (243-foot distance, 37% hard-hit rate) also doesn’t inspire much confidence.
On the other hand, the stacked batters for the Twins collectively enter this game in excellent recent form. Polanco, Cruz, and Rosario have each outperformed their 12-month average distance over the past 15 days, and Cruz and Rosario have outperformed their average hard-hit rates as well.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco (11)
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man stack on DraftKings belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Justin Bour (L)
- 4. Andrelton Simmons (R)
- 6. Brian Goodwin (L)
Total Salary: $21,100
The Angels’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is the top mark on the afternoon slate. This stack will set you back a decent amount of salary dollars, though, but luckily, the pitching options on the slate are affordable.
The Angels take on Seattle Mariners right-hander Mike Leake, who has actually pitched to a decent 3.86 ERA this season. That said, he’s been shaky over his last three starts and is projected for just 2.9 strikeouts in our MLB Player Models. The Angels should be able to put a bevy of balls in play against Leake, which is always a good starting point for offensive success.
Trout will garner the most ownership among Angels batters – and rightfully so – but don’t sleep on Calhoun, who is expected to occupy the leadoff spot and has posted a .210 ISO against righties over the past year. Calhoun has also outperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Jose Altuve has started the season red hot, crushing the ball to the tune of a .420 wOBA through his first 83 plate appearances. Altuve has an excellent matchup today vs. Texas Rangers right-hander Shelby Miller. Also working in Altuve’s favor is that the weather conditions in Arlington are expected to be among the day’s best for hitters. Altuve is expensive ($4,600 on FanDuel, $5,300 on DraftKings), but he has arguably the highest ceiling of any batter on the slate.
The Astros’ implied total against Colorado is the highest of the day by a significant margin, which could result in lower ownership than usual for the home team at Coors Field. David Dahl, who is currently projected to bat second for the Rockies, has absolutely obliterated the baseball over his past three games, posting an average distance of 270 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 54%. Historically, batters with comparable Statcast data and lineup spots have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.93 at Coors.
Chris Davis‘ (lack of) hitting made headlines for all the wrong reasons to start the season, causing his salary to drop to just $2,600 on DraftKings. That said, he’s actually made good contact over his past 10 games, posting an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 50%. If he continues to make that kind of contact, better results will follow. Davis is a strong value play with the requisite upside for GPPs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg (37)
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
