The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel is offering a 15-game all-day that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, and both FanDuel and DraftKings are offering an eight-game main slate that starts at the same time.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,200 NYM @ ATL
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,500 WSH vs. PIT
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,800 HOU @ SEA
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,200 CLE @ KC
- Jose Berrios (R) MIN vs. DET
Sunday’s slate is refreshing compared to Saturday’s — we actually have some choices given the abundance of good pitchers.
deGrom is only available on the all-day slate. He’s always a strong play when he steps on the mound, though this matchup against the Braves doesn’t stand out. Their projected lineup has a low 20.7% strikeout rate, and they rank ninth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season, per FanGraphs.
Still, deGrom boasts a 7.7 K Prediction, and the Mets are -155 moneyline favorites with the Braves implied for 3.8 runs. While deGrom is in play, I don’t think he’s the play — especially given he has the second-lowest median projection among this group.
Scherzer will take the mound today against a projected Pirates lineup that doesn’t strike out often (21.2% strikeout rate), but they also have a meager .287 wOBA against righties and rank 19th in wRC+ against them this season.
Overall, Scherzer is probably the safest option among the top-priced pitchers. The Pirates are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs, and the Nationals check in as sizable -184 moneyline favorites.
Scherzer’s 7.7 K Prediction is on the low end (by his standards), but historically he has crushed at comparable K Predictions and opponent implied run totals, averaging 44.64 FanDuel points per game with a +8.76 Plus/Minus and 69.7% Consistency Rating, per our MLB Trends tool.
Cole has the worst matchup of the bunch against a projected Mariners lineup that has a 21.7% strikeout rate and elite .337 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ve also demolished right-handed pitchers this season, ranking second in wRC+ against them this season.
That said, Cole boasts a favorable 8.0 K Prediction and the Astros are -170 moneyline favorites as the Mariners are implied for only 3.5 runs. However, the Mariners’ skill sets against right-handed pitchers does warrant caution, especially since Cole isn’t entering this game in the best form, allowing opposing hitters to average a 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Kluber has been disappointing so far, averaging a -6.23 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his first three starts. The Royals have been mildly effective against right-handed pitchers, ranking 14th in wRC+ against them this season and a middling .318 wOBA against them over the past 12 months. Although, their projected lineup has a high 25.5% strikeout rate over the same timeframe.
One potential issue is Kluber has surrendered an average 93-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters over his past two starts, and the Royals have team hard-hit rate of 39%, which is the sixth-highest mark among teams today.
Per our Trends tool, pitchers against teams with comparable hard-hit rates, salaries, K Predictions (7.1), and Vegas data to Kluber have averaged a decent 38.75 FanDuel points per game, but they’ve struggled to hit value with a -0.38 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 35.7% Consistency Rating. It’s also not great that Kluber is sporting a high 4.65 xFIP this season — almost a full run higher than his ERA.
Berrios has been solid this season, averaging a +9.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 67% Consistency Rating. While the projected Tigers lineup has a strikeout rate on the lower end (22.9%), they’re also not great against right-handed pitchers, sporting a .261 wOBA while ranking 26th in wRC+.
The Twins also check in as -204 moneyline favorites, and he’ll be in a pitcher-friendly environment with the wind blowing in from left-center and it’s expected to be a crisp 41 degrees in Minnesota, resulting in a Weather Rating of 78.
While the sample is small, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, Weather Ratings, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +10.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 68% Consistency Rating.
Berrios might be tough to use over Scherzer in cash games, but he’s an elite tournament play who also deserves cash-game consideration if you want the savings over Scherzer. Berrios can be sporadic at times, but he’s averaged a +6.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.5% Consistency Rating as a favorite dating back to last year.
Values
Vincent Velasquez could be interesting as a punt option on FanDuel for tournaments, but it may put you at a disadvantage with some of the ceilings of the pitchers on the top end, especially if the bats you pay up for end up disappointing.
He’ll draw a favorable matchup against a projected Marlins lineup with a 28.7% strikeout rate and .272 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Phillies are -181 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for a meager 3.6 runs.
On DraftKings, Marcus Stroman could be a viable SP2 if you need to save some salary. His 5.3 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but he does have a +2.08 Projected Plus/Minus. Stroman’s 3.47 xFIP is just over a full run higher than his ERA this season, suggesting he’s been lucky so far, but that’s still an above average xFIP.
Fastballs
Mashiro Tanaka: He’s in a favorable spot against a projected White Sox lineup that has a high 26.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. The White Sox are implied for a paltry 3.6 runs and the Yankees check in as sizeable -180 moneyline favorites.
Charlie Morton: He’s been dominant this season, averaging a +6.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he gets a favorable draw against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 26.5% strikeout rate and .295 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Zach Greinke: He’s struck out nine and 10 batters over his past two starts and has a favorable matchup against a projected Padres lineup with a 25.6% strikeout rate and .298 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man main-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Steve Pearce (R)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Total salary: $18,900
The Red Sox are loading up on right-handers against the lefty John Means. The Sox are in another smash spot, as they’re at home with an implied run total of 6.3.
Betts has destroyed right-handed pitchers over the past year, sporting a .454 wOBA and .280 against them. His fantasy numbers haven’t jumped off the page of late, but his +19 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) suggests he’s been unlucky so far. His Statcast data looks great over his past 12 games with a 233-foot average batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate.
However, it’s worth noting that sharp money is on the under in this game, as 41% of the bets and 89% of the money has come in on the under so far, dropping the total from 10.5 to 9.5.
The top non-Red Sox stack on FanDuel’s main slate in terms of projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total salary: $16,800
The Phillies are tied with the Yankees with an implied run total of 5.0 runs, the second-highest mark on the slate behind the Red Sox.
Harper will be on the positive side of his splits for this game, posting a .381 wOBA and .246 ISO against righties over the past year. The same goes for Hoskins, who has hit righties to the tune of a .377 wOBA and .295 ISO.
This stack is also viable on DraftKings where everyone in it has at least a 90% Bargain Rating.
Other Batters
This is the first time I’ve written up a catcher in this article, but J.T. Realmuto hits right-handed pitchers well, boasting a .364 wOBA and .203 ISO. He carries a decent 64% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and leads all catchers in our median and ceiling projections.
Howie Kendrick has been excellent of late, averaging a +3.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He’s smashed righties over the past year, posting an elite .416 wOBA and .260 ISO, and has also demolished the baseball over the past 15 days, sporting a 292-foot average batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate.
Eddie Rosario is expected to hit cleanup for the Twins. He has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and possesses a .352 wOBA and .217 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s also in good recent form, posting a 226-foot average batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 38% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days — all of which represent positive differentials compared to his 12-month averages.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jose Berrios
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
