The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Most teams are playing either their fourth or fifth game of the season, so the top-end starting pitching options are unsurprisingly thin. Only two starting pitching options possess a salary of $9,000 or greater on FanDuel:
- David Price (L) $9,300, BOS @ OAK
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $9,000, CHC @ ATL
Price is coming off an excellent World Series run for the Red Sox, but he was pretty uninspiring during the regular season. His 3.58 ERA was reasonable, but his 4.02 FIP was the worst mark of his career and suggests that he’s due for some regression. His K/9 also decreased to just 9.05. That said, he did benefit from racking up 16 wins for the high-powered Red Sox, and his average of 31.6 FanDuel points per start last season was the top mark among Monday’s pitchers.
Unfortunately, Price is in a brutal spot against the Oakland A’s, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .335 over the past 12 months and are implied for 4.0 runs. That’s a high mark for a stud pitcher, and starters with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have historically posted a negative Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). Price is still worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%, but there are better values available.
Hendricks is even less appealing against the Braves. He owns the same opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs, but he’s just a slight -106 favorite. He also doesn’t possess the same kind of strikeout ability as Price, and his K Prediction of 5.6 ranks just ninth on the main slate.
Hendricks makes a living by generating weak contact and ground balls, which isn’t nearly as valuable in fantasy baseball as it is in real life. There will be times we can use Hendricks this season, but his pedestrian Vegas data makes him overpriced.
Value
It’s a great day to spend down a bit at pitcher, and luckily there are some nice values to choose from.
Julio Urias will take the mound for the Dodgers, and he’ll be looking to make his first real impact at the MLB level. He’s been a highly touted prospect for the past few years but was limited to just 4.0 innings last year due to injuries.
He’s in an elite spot against the Giants, who figure to be one of the worst lineups in baseball this season. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .235 against southpaws over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate by a considerable margin. They’ve also struggled to make contact against lefties, posted a 27.6% strikeout rate. Urias leads the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-198), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.20 on FanDuel.
Urias should be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Matt Strahm is not a household name yet, but he made an impressive debut with the Padres last season. He pitched to a 2.05 ERA and 10.13 K/9 over 61.1 innings, and he racked up 25 strikeouts over 20 innings during spring training. His advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some regression, but he still profiles as a potential frontline MLB starter.
Strahm has a great matchup against the Diamondbacks, who lost some major pieces during the offseason — most notably Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollack — and their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .282 against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re implied for just 3.4 runs, and Strahm’s K Prediction of 6.8 ranks third on the slate. He also benefits from getting to pitch in San Diego, which has historically been an extremely pitcher-friendly venue.
If you’re looking for an option with upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), consider Brad Peacock.
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brad Peacock
Peacock posted an elite K/9 of 13.29 last season, and he’s taking on a Rangers’ projected lineup that struck out in 26.2% of at bats against right-handers last season. His K Prediction of 8.4 is the top mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.29 on DraftKings. His opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs in mediocre, but pitching for the Astros and their juggernaut offense still results in -166 moneyline odds.
Fastballs
- Sean Reid-Foley: He’s only available on DraftKings — get your act together, FanDuel! — but owns solid marks across the board: 3.9 opponent implied team total, -174 moneyline odds, 7.7 K Prediction. He’s taking on an Orioles’ projected lineup that has struggled to a .263 wOBA and 26.4% K Prediction over the past 12 months.
- Steven Matz: He pitched to a respectable 3.97 ERA last season and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Marlins, who have gutted their roster over the past two seasons. Their projected lineup has also posted a 27.5% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack according the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Kiké Hernandez (R)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. David Freese (R)
- 4. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 7. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $21,200
The Dodgers have gotten off to a flying start this season, averaging 10.5 runs and clubbing 14 HRs through their first four games. Their taking on Giants’ left-hander Drew Pomeranz on today’s slate and will likely respond with a lineup full of right-handed bats. Right-handed batters destroyed Pomeranz last season, posting a .401 wOBA and averaging 1.88 homeruns per nine innings.
The top four batters in the Dodgers’ lineup are particularly appealing targets. Right-handed batters with a top-five spot in the batting order posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.95 vs. Pomeranz last season, and Turner, Freese, and Pollock have all performed better vs. left-handers than right-handers over the past 12 months.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Turner
Turner is a steal at $4,200 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
The top four-man stack on FanDuel belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Austin Meadows (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Brandon Lowe (L)
- 5. Yandy Diaz (R)
Total Salary: $12,300
The Rays own an implied team total of 4.8 runs vs. Rockies’ right-hander Chad Bettis, which is the fourth highest mark on the slate. Bettis pitched to a 5.01 ERA and 5.98 K/9 last season, which are extremely pedestrian numbers.
The Rays have also smoked the baseball to start the season. Meadows and Diaz have both posted an average distance of at least 253 feet through the first four games, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +45 feet for both. Pham hasn’t posted the same distance numbers, but he’s averaged an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 80% through his first four contests. He’s also swiped two bags, giving him upside in the batter’s box and on the base path.
Other Batters
The Blue Jays’ implied team total of 5.2 runs is tied for the highest mark on the slate, which should make them a popular team to target. Brandon Drury is a nice way to get some cheap exposure to them on FanDuel, where his $2,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s hitting second on the order, and players with comparable salaries, lineup spots and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.50.
Felix Hernandez is taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners, but he’s not nearly the same intimidating force that he was in his prime. Hernandez pitched to a 5.55 ERA last season, which makes him a pitcher you want to stack against more than roster.
Kole Calhoun has gotten off to a fast start, recording five hits and a home run, and his Statcast data over that time frame is impressive. He posted an ISO of .184 against right-handers over the past 12 months and is expected to bat leadoff against Hernandez, which makes Calhoun an appealing option.
Power gets most of the attention when it comes to MLB DFS, so base stealers can often get overlooked.
Mallex Smith has averaged .244 steals per game over the past 12 months, which gives him nice upside against the Angels. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Angels right-hander Chris Stratton, and Smith has over-performed his 12-month Statcast data through his first three games this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias (7)
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
