The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,300, NYM vs. ATL
- Chris Sale (L) $11,000, BOS vs. BAL
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $10,700, NYY @ TB
- German Marquez (R) $10,200, COL vs. PHI
What else is left to be said about deGrom at this point? He’s pitched to a 1.77 ERA and career-high 11.15 K/9, and he leads all pitchers with 8.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The only blemish on his resume is his 9-9 record, but that hasn’t really affected him from a fantasy perspective: He owns a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +10.28 on FanDuel in 2018.
Matchups are pretty irrelevant for deGrom at this point – he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 28 straight starts – but his current one vs. the Braves is solid. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and a K Prediction of 7.7, both of which rank second on today’s slate. His recent Statcast data is also excellent: He’s limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 16%. There isn’t a safer investment in daily fantasy baseball, evidenced by his slate-best Consistency Rating of 75% over the past year.
Sale has been limited since returning from the disabled list on Sept. 11 but is expected to go five innings today. That could be enough to have some viability vs. the Baltimore Orioles, who have been a disaster offensively. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .291 over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for a slate-low 2.5 runs. Sale is also a massive -435 favorite, which gives him the best Vegas data in the history of our database.
What really makes him intriguing is his strikeout upside. He’s posted an unreal K/9 of 13.47 over the past 12 months, so he could approach double-digit strikeouts in just five innings.
Tanaka is a boom-or-bust option virtually every time he takes the mound but deserves strong consideration on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, who are implied for just 3.3 runs. Tanaka also has solid strikeout upside: His K Prediction of 6.6 ranks sixth on the slate.
Tanaka was shelled in his most recent start, giving up five earned runs to the Red Sox in just four innings, but his underlying Statcast data is strong. He’s allowed his past two opponents to post an average distance of just 191 feet, which represents a decrease of -11 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.36 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Marquez has been absolutely dominant since the All-Star break, posting a 2.77 ERA and 11.51 K/9. He’s also averaged 51.2 FanDuel points per game over the past month, which is the top mark on today’s slate.
Despite his elite recent production, he’ll likely be a contrarian option vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. He’s pitching at home in Coors Field, and the Phillies are implied for 4.4 runs. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also pretty concerning. He’s allowed an average distance of 215 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 57%, all three of which represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
Values
Ross Stripling might be the best pure value at pitcher on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Diamondbacks in Arizona, but he’s still getting a lot of respect from Vegas: His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for fifth on the slate. His K Prediction of 6.8 is also one of the top marks of the day.
The big concern with Stripling is his recent usage. He’s failed to make it out of the fourth inning in each of his past three starts and has averaged just 66.3 pitches per start over that time frame.
Jose Quintana looks like the preferred value option on DraftKings at just $7,500. He’s taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose projected lineup has posted a .283 wOBA and 23.0% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
He also enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 22%, which represents a decrease of 10 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
Fastballs
Jake Odorizzi: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.89 on DraftKings over his past two starts and has another plus matchup today vs. the Detroit Tigers. His K Prediction of 7.0 trails only Sale’s and deGrom’s.
Cody Reed: The pitching options on the early slate are really limited, which makes Reed an intriguing option. He’s allowed an average distance of 174 feet over his past two starts, which represents a decrease of -15 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Zack Greinke: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Dodgers but enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -12 feet and hard-hit differential of -6 percentage points.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- 1. Victor Robles (R)
- 2. Trea Turner (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 7. Matt Wieters (S)
Total Salary: $23,700
The Nationals are implied for 5.3 runs, which is the top mark on the early slate. They’re taking on Marlins left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, who has been an absolute disaster this season when pitching away from Marlins Park. He’s averaged a 9.29 ERA and 2.45 HR/9 and has allowed batters to compile a .421 wOBA when on the road in 2018.
The Nationals will likely be the highest-owned team on the early slate, which could make Wieters an important differentiator. He’s been outstanding over his past 11 games, owning an average distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 41%.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 4. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 5. Andrelton Simmons (R)
Total Salary: $14,600
The Angels’ implied team total of 4.8 runs ranks fourth on the main slate, but they represent one of the best values on FanDuel: Their Team Value Rating of 78 is tied for second on the slate. They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Yohander Mendez, who has pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 2018.
Trout is one of the best hitters in baseball and enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 272 feet over his past 12 games, which represents an increase of +38 feet compared to his 12-month average. Trout has destroyed left-handed pitching this season, owning a .418 wOBA and 172 wRC+.
Other Batters
Billy McKinney is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Toronto Blue Jays, which makes him an appealing option at just $3,500 on DraftKings. The Astros will be sending Chris Devenski to the mound to open the game, and McKinney has posted a .353 wOBA and .215 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Joey Votto will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Royals right-hander Heath Fillmyer, and the Reds are implied for 5.1 runs on today’s slate. He’s also posted a 51% hard-hit rate over his past 11 games, which represents an increase of +10 percentage points compared to the past 12 months.
If you’re looking to buy low on someone on the early slate, consider Tony Kemp. He’s posted an average distance of 271 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 42% over his past eight games, but his poor fantasy production has resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +91 on DraftKings. He’s also batting second in the order for the Astros, which is higher than usual for Kemp.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
