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The MLB playoff action continues on Wednesday at 8:05 p.m. ET with the AL Wild Card featuring the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees.
Tonight’s biggest tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel differ slightly from the traditional formats. DraftKings will feature their popular Showdown mode, where you have six utility slots that can be filled by either a pitcher or batter. The only real rules are that you must roster at least one player from each team and can stack only four batters from the same team. Relief pitchers are also scored on a different basis than starting pitchers, which makes them viable options.
FanDuel’s single game format does not feature pitchers of any kind. Instead, you’ll have to fill out your roster with one infielder, one outfielder, and three utilities, one of which is designated as the MVP. That player earns 1.5x fantasy points during the game, so choosing the correct player for that slot can make or break your lineup.
Starting Pitchers
Both teams have major question marks on the mound today, albeit for entirely different reasons:
- Luis Severino (R) $16,000, NYY vs. OAK
- Liam Hendriks (R) $9,000, OAK @ NYY
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Severino. He looked like one of the best pitchers in the league over the first half of the year, posting an elite 2.31 ERA and 10.97 K/9, but he posted a putrid 5.57 ERA after the All-Star break. He was roughed up by the A’s in particular in one of his most recent starts, allowing five earned runs while failing to make it out of the third inning. His recent Statcast data is also a bit of a mixed bag: He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet but has allowed his past two opponents to compile a hard-hit rate of 42%.
It’s impossible to fully trust Severino heading into this contest, but he does appear to have upside. The Yankees are solid -177 favorites, and the A’s are implied for just 3.7 runs. His K Prediction of 6.8 also gives him the most strikeout potential on the slate. He’ll likely be a short leash – especially after failing to make it out of the first inning in last year’s Wild Card – but none of today’s pitchers can match his ceiling.
Hendriks will start for the A’s, but he’s a starting pitcher in name only. He started eight games for Oakland in September alone but pitched just one inning or less in seven of them. Manager Bob Melvin likes the matchup with Hendriks vs. the top of the Yankees order – Hendriks set them down in order in his last meeting with them – but don’t expect him to pitch any deeper than that. Given that he’ll be graded as a starter instead of a reliever and is priced at $9,000, he’s the easiest fade decision of the entire season.
Bullpens
This is where things get really interesting. Both of these teams have an outstanding group of relievers, with both ranking in the top four in bullpen ERA.
The Yankees bullpen is truly an embarrassment of riches; they have at least four guys who could close for most teams in the league. Manager Aaron Boone will have plenty of options to go to if Severino falters or to lock down a potential lead late in the game.
Aroldis Chapman will likely serve as the Yankees closer and put together another dominant campaign in 2018. He posted a 2.45 ERA and a ridiculous 16.3 K/9, which gives him massive upside even in a one-inning role.
Dellin Betances and Zach Britton will likely serve as the primary set-up men for Chapman, but David Robertson and Chad Green might be the more appealing fantasy options. They each have the potential to pitch multiple innings, especially if Severino stumbles early. Both guys averaged a K/9 of at least 11.2 this season, so they can do a lot of damage if given the opportunity.
Melvin is keeping his cards close to his vest for today’s contest, so no one really knows what the A’s plan to do after Hendriks starts the game. He could turn to Edwin Jackson – the only true starting pitcher on Oakland’s postseason roster – for a couple of innings, or he could look to deploy a host of relief pitchers. They are carrying 10 true relievers on their Wild Card roster, so he has plenty of options.
One definite is that they’d like to get the ball to Blake Treinen to close the game. He was absolutely dominant in the regular season, finishing with an ERA of 0.78 over 80.1 innings pitched. He allowed just seven earned runs all season and has kept opponents off the scoreboard in each of his past 15 outings. The fact that he might be asked to go more than one inning in a bullpen game only increases his appeal.
Some other guys who will likely get the ball at one point or another for the A’s are Shawn Kelley, Lou Trivino, Fernando Rodney, Jeurys Familia, and Cory Gearrin. Familia offers the most strikeout upside of the group, but all of them could play an important factor in this game.
Offenses
Yankees Projected Lineup
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 5. Luke Voit (R)
- 6. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 7. Miguel Andujar (R)
- 8. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 9. Gleyber Torres (R)
Man, that’s a lot of firepower. We knew the Yankees offense would be good going into the season, but the emergence of Andujar and Torres plus the additions of McCutchen and Voit have really put them over the top.
Oakland’s pen is heavy on right-handed pitching, which does put the Yankees at a bit of a disadvantage. Gregorius is their only true left-handed bat in the lineup, with switch-hitting Hicks preferring the right side of the plate. On a team full of bombers, Gregorius actually ranks second on the team in ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He could be a sneaky target batting out of the sixth spot in the lineup.
Voit might be the most appealing right-handed bat for the Yankees. He’s posted a .433 wOBA and .301 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months and has absolutely smoked the baseball over his past 11 games: 274-foot distance, 99 mph exit velocity, 61% hard-hit rate.
Judge returned to the lineup in mid-September after a lengthy stay on the disabled list but has yet to really look like the Judge we’ve come to expect. Wrist injuries can have a drastic impact on a batter’s power, and Judge posted just three extra-base hits and a .675 OPS over his final 12 contests. He’s hard to trust as the most-expensive batter on the slate.
It’s hard to get behind Stanton and Sanchez as well against right-handed pitching. Both guys have fared significantly worse in righty-righty matchups over the past 12 months, and neither enters today’s contest in good recent Statcast form.
A’s Projected Lineup
- 1. Nick Martini (L)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
- 6 Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 7. Ramon Laureano (R)
- 8. Marcus Semien (R)
- 9. Jonathan Lucroy (R)
The A’s lineup isn’t set in stone, and there’s some talk that they could actually start Matt Joyce at catcher and bat him third to guarantee him an at-bat against Severino. They would sub him out in the bottom half of the inning for Lucroy, but it would be a way to increase their offensive firepower in the beginning of the game. I’m not 100% sure if we’ll see that, but it wouldn’t be surprising given the creative approach that the A’s are taking on the mound.
Their offense doesn’t have the same name power as the Yankees, but don’t sleep on these bats. They hit the sixth-most HRs vs. right-handed pitchers this season, while their wRC+ of 112 was actually better than the Yankees’. Their batters have to be salivating at the opportunity to hit in the Bronx.
One batter in particular who should love seeing the short porch in right field is Olson. He’s posted a .352 wOBA and .249 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and only four of his 29 HRs were hit to the left side of second base.
Chapman has been among the best hitters in baseball over the second half of the season, posting a .405 wOBA since the All-Star break. He’s also been a reverse-splits hitter, posting better numbers against right-handers than left-handers, which should help him against Severino and the Yankees bullpen.
Davis led all of baseball with 48 HRs this season and enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 260 feet and exit velocity of 95 mph over the past 15 days, both of which represent increases compared to his 12-month averages. He’s also displayed most of his power against right-handers over the course of the season, posting a .315 ISO and clubbing 37 of his HRs.
Piscotty is another batter who’s smoked the baseball recently, posting a hard-hit rate of 68% over his past 10 games.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above (left to right): Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
