The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: The four-game early slate starts at 2:05 p.m. ET, while the nine-game main slate begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
High-end options are thin, with just three pitchers between the early and main slates priced at $9,500 or more on FanDuel.
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,000, LAD @ OAK
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,000, ARI vs. PHI
- Mike Clevinger (R) $9,600, CLE vs. MIN
On the early slate, Corbin is only $900 more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel, but he has a potentially limiting matchup against a projected Phillies lineup that possesses only a 21.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against left-handed pitching. That said, Corbin almost always provides strikeout upside with a 10.36 SO/9 over the past year, so it’s not surprising — even in a suboptimal matchup — that he owns a slate-leading 7.2 K Prediction. The Phillies are also implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs and rank 24th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs). Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been fantastic investments, sporting a +3.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
The Dodgers are -159 moneyline favorites, and Kershaw could benefit from a favorable park shift to the Oakland Coliseum (76 Park Factor), where he faces an Athletics team implied for only 3.3 runs. It’s not ideal to pay all the way up for a pitcher with a middling 6.6 K Prediction, especially considering Oakland is top-10 in wRC+ against lefties this season. However, opposing batters are struggling to put the ball in the air against Kershaw, who has slate-low 16% fly-ball rate over his past two starts. In fact, he has performed above his salary-based expectations in four of his past five games, and home-plate umpire Mike Muchlinski has historically provided pitchers with an additional Plus/Minus of +1.30 on FanDuel.
On the main slate, Clevinger trails both Kershaw (1.12) and Luis Severino (1.11) with his 1.25 WHIP over the past 12 months, and his recent Statcast data is even less impressive. Over his past two starts, Clevinger has yielded a batted-ball distance of 227 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 41%. The matchup against the Twins doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but Vegas opened Cleveland as -199 moneyline favorites. Currently, only 29% of the public bets are on the Indians.
Values
John Grant was toasted for eight hits and six earned runs over just four innings in his last start, but priced at just $6,200 on DraftKings he’s a strong punt play against a projected Marlins lineup that can’t hit right-handed pitching. Over the past year, their projected lineups has a main slate-worst 27.5% strikeout rate and bottom-two .280 wOBA against righties. Vegas is backing the Cardinals as -120 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for only 3.9 runs. Historically, similarly priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been reliable value options with a +1.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 57.6% Consistency Rating.
Luis Severino is cheap at $9,400 on FanDuel, where he owns a 98% Bargain Rating. The Yankees are currently massive -270 moneyline favorites against a White Sox team implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs, and Severino’s 7.7 K Prediction leads all pitchers today who have averaged more than two innings pitched over the past year. He’s absolutely dealing with an absurd 16% hard-hit rate over his past two starts, and he leads all main-slate pitchers with seven FanDuel Pro Trends.
Fastballs
Vincent Velasquez: He provides a ton of tournament leverage on the early slate, as the Phillies are +147 underdogs facing Corbin and the Diamondbacks. He’s sporting a 7.0 K Prediction and strong recent Statcast numbers, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 188 feet over his past three starts.
Jose Quintana: He doesn’t have high strikeout upside (6.0 K Prediction), so his price may be tough to justify in cash games, but the opposing Royals own a bottom-three .285 wOBA over the past 12 months and are tied for 28th in wRC+ against lefties this season. The Cubs are also the second-largest favorite on the slate (-219), and Quintana has some of the best Statcast data on the main slate, including a 189-foot batted-ball distance allowed and 25% fly-ball rate.
Jhoulys Chacin: The projected Padres lineup is comically bad against right-handed pitching with a pathetic .266 wOBA over the past year, easily worst on the entire all-day slate. Chacin lacks strikeout upside but should be a relatively safe option, as the Brewers are sizable -177 moneyline favorites.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Mariners, who are implied for a slate-high 6.2 runs and own the highest Team Value Rating.
- 1. Dee Gordon (L)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Denard Span (L)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 6. Kyle Seager (L)
Total Salary: $22,200
How are the Mariners currently expected to outpace both teams playing at Coors Field, you ask? They’re in Arlington and facing Yovani Gallardo, a Rangers righty with a 1.72 WHIP and 1.99 HR/9 over the past 12 months, marks that are both the worst on the all-day slate.
Cruz has an impressive .403 wOBA and .298 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 230-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with similar implied totals, lineup spots and batted-ball metrics have averaged a +1.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus at a 17.1% ownership rate.
With no Coors Field on FanDuel’s main slate, one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for a healthy 5.4 runs:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 5. Yonder Alonso (L)
Total Salary: $16,800
Cleveland will square off against Minnesota righty Jake Odorizzi, who owns a bottom-four 1.41 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also been getting completely rocked lately, with a 231-foot batted-ball distance allowed, 51% fly-ball rate and 41% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
It’s a bit anticlimactic, but the player most likely to take advantage of Odorizzi’s inadequacies is Ramirez. He’s been on an absolute tear, averaging 18.5 FanDuel PPG over the past month with an impressive 54.0% Consistency Rating. He’s also getting the ball in the air with an elite 54% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days, and his .444 wOBA paired with a .348 ISO against righties is truly elite.
Other Batters
The Rockies and Pirates are still going at each other at Coors Field, so both teams will likely be popular on the early slate. Of the two, the Pirates are still probably the preferred team for GPPs, as their lower implied run total (5.3) could make them the lower-owned team. No.2 hitter Starling Marte is expensive, but he offers some value on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating. He trails only Alex Avila with his 63% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days, and he’s second with nine FanDuel Pro Trends.
On the other side of this Coors Field game, Nolan Arenado may be a solid differentiator in Rockies stacks, given that he’s on the wrong side of his drastic and well documented batting splits. He’s still provided a +0.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season at home against right-handed pitching, just with a troubling 41.6% Consistency Rating. Getting a player of Arenado’s caliber at reduced ownership in GPPs is probably +EV.
The Cubs’ implied total of 5.5 runs is the highest mark on the main slate, and two Chicago batters stand above the rest per usual. Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist will likely be popular stacking options at the top of the order, as both are on the positive side of their batting splits. Rizzo probably carries more power with a splits-adjusted .393 wOBA and .228 ISO over the past year. Zobrist is tied with Justin Turner for the slate lead with nine DraftKings Pro Trends. There’s definitely immense upside in targeting batters against Royals righty Heath Fillmyer, who owns a bottom-three 1.48 WHIP mark over the past year.
Batting in the No.2 spot for Toronto, Devon Travis stands out in models and is a top value option on the main slate at just $3,700 and $2,400 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been crushing recently with an unreal 235-foot batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s also on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, as he owns a formidable .357 wOBA and .238 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Mookie Betts is $5,900 on DraftKings, but this could be a prime contrarian spot to pay up, as the Red Sox are outside the top tier of implied run totals (5.2). Betts, along with Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez, has a top-eight ceiling projection and could go under-owned in tournaments.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jose Ramirez
Photo credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
