The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are only two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,000, HOU vs. MIN
- J.A. Happ (L) $10,200, NYY @ OAK
Paying all the way up for Verlander may be a popular approach on today’s slate. The Twins are implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs, and the Astros are massive -298 moneyline favorites. The matchup is reasonable enough — the projected Minnesota lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months — and Verlander has a top-two 8.1 K Prediction.
Further, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically dominated: Per our MLB Trends tool, they’ve posted 45.13 FanDuel points per game, a +7.77 average Plus/Minus, and a 75.0% Consistency Rating. Verlander’s recent Statcast data is solid, despite allowing an above-average amount of fly balls (48%). His 0.914 WHIP over the past year inspires immense confidence for cash games and tournaments alike.
It’s hard to have the similar confidence in Happ, as he’s in a brutal spot against a projected Athletics lineup that possesses a .340 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. There’s a ton of upside in the mid range today, so Happ’s 6.8 K Prediction is tough to pay up for, but he could come extremely low owned in guaranteed prize pools with most users gravitating toward Verlander or Coors Field bats.
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Values
Unfortunately for players trying to jam in Verlander or Coors bats, the value options are pretty gross today. Joe Musgrove makes some sense in tournaments at only $7,000 and $7,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. His matchup is fantastic, as Cincinnati’s projected lineup has a slate-high 28.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past year and PNC Park is a favorable pitching environment (86 Park Factor).
The issue with Musgrove is his recent form. In his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 250 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph, and hard-hit rate of 58%. Despite those marks, however, the Pirates are sizable -146 favorites.
Wade LeBlanc is priced at just $6,800 on FanDuel against a projected Orioles lineup that can’t hit left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a bottom-three .289 wOBA against lefties over the past year, and as a team they are second worst in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season.
Vegas is also backing the Mariners as -199 moneyline favorites; the Orioles are implied for only 3.3 runs. Historically, similarly-priced pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been reliable value options with a +5.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 59.2% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Rich Hill: He checks a lot of boxes today, starting with his top-three K Prediction (7.4). Note that he is technically priced as a stud on DraftKings at $10,000. He’s probably still a bargain, as the opposing Mets own a bottom-three wRC+ ranking this season against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers are also tied as the second-largest favorite on the slate (-230), and Hill’s nine DraftKings Pro Trends trail only Verlander’s 10.
Robbie Ray: The Diamondbacks are the sixth-largest favorite on the slate (-169), and Ray’s slate-leading 8.5 K Prediction is certainly worth exposure in tournaments. However, he’s a tough sell in cash games, sporting a batted-ball distance of 233 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 47% over his last two starts.
Joey Lucchesi: If you hate the value today, there are ways to pay down and gain some leverage at the same time. The Padres are +156 underdogs, but there is clearly upside, as the projected Diamondbacks lineup owns the sixth-highest strikeout rate on the slate (26.0%) against left-handed pitching. Lucchesi is a high-risk pivot off of Ray, but he could pay off, as his 7.1 K Prediction is top four in the slate.
Mike Clevinger: He could go overlooked today, but the Indians are tied for top-two moneyline odds (-230) and the opposing Royals are implied for a low 3.4 runs. His 6.9 K Prediction is middling on today’s slate with a ton of upside appeal elsewhere, but he could look sharp given the Royals projected lineup owns a top-three strikeout rate (27.2%) to righties over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who own a slate-leading 5.6 implied run total at Coors Field:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
- 6. David Dahl (L)
Total Salary: $25,200
The Rockies are very rarely a contrarian option when playing at Coors, but one way to differentiate could be by leaving off No. 2 hitter DJ LeMahieu from your stack. He’s on the wrong side of his batting splits, and his Statcast data leaves a lot to be desired: Over the past 15 days, he’s provided a batted-ball distance of only 186 feet, a fly-ball rate of 13%, and a hard-hit rate of 34%.
The player who could anchor Rockies stacks is Gonzalez in the No. 3 position today. His recent Statcast success has yet to lead to fantasy points, but he is due to break out with a team-leading +43 Recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) score.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Yankees, who are well outside the top tier of implied totals (4.5):
- 1. Brett Gardner (L)
- 2. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 3. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 4. Aaron Hicks (S)
Total Salary: $16,200
The Yankees are probably overpriced, which is exactly why they may go under-owned in a strong matchup against Liam Hendriks. The Oakland pitcher was absolutely rocked in his last start, yielding a batted-ball distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and fly-ball rate of 50%. His 2.21 HR/9 over the past year is the slate’s best mark.
The Yankees also smash right-handed pitching, as their projected lineup owns a top-two .346 wOBA over the past year. Gardner has a 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, with strong recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages, including a distance of +21 feet, exit velocity of +2 mph, and hard-hit rate of +7 percentage points.
Other Batters
At Coors Field, the Giants are still probably the preferred team for GPPs, with an incredibly low 4.0 implied run total for this park shift. No. 3 hitter Evan Longoria has been hitting the ball as well as anyone lately, and he’s due for even more progression with a +52 Recent BBL score. He has immaculate recent Statcast data, including a 253-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 53% fly-ball rate.
Batting sixth for the Giants, Nick Hundley is in cash consideration at catcher; he owns a 70% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s generated a ton of hard contact lately, including a team-leading 54% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
The White Sox’s 5.1 implied run total is the third highest on the slate, and Ryan LaMarre and Tim Anderson will likely be popular stacking options in the Nos. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, against Francisco Liriano and the Tigers. It’s a strong matchup for Chicago bats against Liriano, as his 1.57 WHIP and 1.59 HR/9 over the past year are both bottom-five marks on today’s slate. Anderson has been hitting well lately with a +20 foot distance differential over the past 15 days, and LeMarre is due for a breakout with a +51 Recent BBL score over that same time period.
The Indians are an intriguing fade in guaranteed prize pools today, despite their top-two 5.2 implied run total. Royals lefty Danny Duffy has actually performed better lately, yielding just a 20% hard-hit rate over his last two starts. But the larger factor is that the Cleveland bats have really cooled off. Among their projected top-six batters, only Edwin Encarnacion sports a batted-ball distance of over 201 feet; three members of the top six fall at 182 feet or below in that same category.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
