The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Note: Be sure and keep an eye on the weather today using our lineups page, as there is currently a chance of rain at game time for the following games:
- KC-CIN
- BAL-BOS
- PIT-CHC
- CLE-CWS
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,400, WSH vs. MIA
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,100, LAD @ ARI
- Luis Severino (R) $10,000, NYY @ TB
The gap between Scherzer and the rest of today’s pitching options is massive. He’s averaged 47.4 fantasy points and a Plus/Minus of +9.20 over the past year on FanDuel, and his 73% Consistency Rating is especially impressive given his sky-high salary.
Unsurprisingly, he leads today’s pitchers in three key categories: opponent implied team total (2.5 runs), moneyline odds (-355), and K Prediction (9.4). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.42 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). He’s taking on the Marlins, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .292 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months.
As a team, the Marlins are 25th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Scherzer owns the most Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so building any cash lineups without him on today’s slate seems suboptimal.
A potential pivot — or viable SP2 paired with Scherzer — is Buehler. His 7.6 K Prediction ranks fourth on the slate, and the opposing Arizona lineup provides a ton of upside to right-handed pitchers with a 28.9% strikeout rate over the past year.
No pitcher’s Vegas data is in the same stratosphere as Scherzer’s, but the Dodgers are currently the third-largest moneyline favorite today (-216), and the Diamondbacks are implied for a bottom-two 3.2 runs. Buehler’s recent Statcast data is arguably the best on the slate, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 171 feet, exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of 32%.
Severino could go under-owned in favor of arguably much more appealing options at the high end. The Rays are seventh in wRC+ against righties, and their projected lineup provides a paltry 23.3% strikeout rate. Severino’s 7.3 K Prediction is still very solid, and his recent Statcast data is somewhat comparable to Buehler’s, boasting a 183-foot batted-ball distance allowed and 27% fly-ball rate. Having some exposure to Severino’s top-three ceiling projection makes a ton of sense in tournaments.
Values
With some weather concerns across the slate, the clear value options to attack at pitcher come from the SD-SF game, with the added bonus of a slate-high Park Factor at AT&T Park.
Chris Stratton is $6,900 on DraftKings, and the opposing Padres lineup provides a slate-high 29.2% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. He’s also a slight underdog against a San Diego team implied for only 3.8 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and Park Factors have been solid investments, providing a +2.62 Plus/Minus and 59.3% Consistency Rating.
In the same game, Robbie Erlin is a cheap pivot at $5,400 on DraftKings, where he owns a 72% Bargain Rating. This game is essentially a pick’em, and the Marlins struggle mightily against left-handed pitching, ranking just 27th in wRC+. From that perspective, his 6.7 K Prediction is certainly reasonable if you need to move down in price from Stratton.
Fastballs
Trevor Bauer: His price qualifies for the stud category on DraftKings, and he owns a top-two 9.1 K Prediction. Further, the White Sox’s projected lineup owns the fourth-highest strikeout rate (28.0%) against righties on the entire slate. Rain is a concern in this game, however, and Bauer will be on a pitch count in only his second start since coming off the disabled list.
David Price: The Red Sox are the second-largest favorite in the slate (-300), and the Orioles are bottom-two in wRC+ against lefties this season. With a top-five K Prediction (7.3), he’s a strong leverage play off some of the more expensive options with more perceived upside. Again, keep an eye on the weather, although that could lower his ownership in GPPs.
Mike Montgomery: The projected Pirates lineup is below average against right-handed pitching with a .284 wOBA over the past year — second-worst on the entire slate. Montgomery lacks strikeout upside (4.2 K Prediction), but he’s still a fine value on FanDuel with a 75% Bargain Rating. He should be a relatively safe option if the rain holds off, as the Cubs are -137 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, whose 6.1 implied run total at Coors Field leads the slate:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $24,900
Coors Field bats versus Scherzer will be the big decision the public has to make today, and the Rockies make a strong case. They will square off against Phillies righty Vincent Velasquez, who has been getting rocked lately, with a 244-foot batted-ball distance allowed over his past two starts.
Projected to bat third, Dahl is on the right side of dramatic splits, including a .372 wOBA and .253 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Blackmon is expensive, but he may be worth it even at elevated ownership at Coors Field. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 223-foot average distance, 93 mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics at Coors Field have averaged a +1.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 17% Upside Rating.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Dodgers, who are outside the top tier of implied totals (4.9) but have the benefit of not dealing with potential rain:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 5. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $15,000
On a slate where saving salary is absolutely crucial, you could do worse than attacking Diamondbacks righty Matt Koch. His 1.97 HR/9 over the past year is second highest on the entire slate.
A notable omission in this stack is cleanup hitter Manny Machado. Not only is he by far the most-expensive Dodger, but he’s also somewhat underperformed lately with a -0.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games with a sub-par 37% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
The true priority today for the Dodgers is Pederson. He’s in elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 243-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and massive 54% and 63% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts is on the negative side of his batting splits vs. Jimmy Yacabonis, but it probably doesn’t matter. He’s batting leadoff for a Red Sox offense implied for 5.9 runs, and his $5,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He has the highest ceiling of any hitter today, with an absurd recent batted-ball distance of 261 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 65% and 52%.
If you’re looking for cheap 1 or 2 hitters on DraftKings, Jose Fernandez could be your guy. He’s taking on Rangers righty Yovani Gallardo, who has a bottom-two 1.67 WHIP over the past year. The Angels have a respectable 5.0 implied run total. Comparably-priced batters with similar lineup spots and Vegas totals have provided a +1.35 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Robbie Grossman will bat cleanup for the Twins, and his +20 foot distance differential over the past 15 days is top 10 among all hitters today. He’s egregiously priced on FanDuel at $2,700 with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Cleveland is just outside the top tier of implied totals (5.1), so Edwin Encarnacion could be a fantastic GPP play if the Indians go under-owned. Projected to bat cleanup, he has an elite 241-foot batted-ball distance and 95 mph exit velocity over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Walker Buehler
Photo credit: Ron Chenoy – USA TODAY Sports
