The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There’s a strong group of stud pitchers today, with five possessing a salary of at least $10,700 on FanDuel:
- Corey Kluber (R) $12,000, CLE vs. CWS
- Blake Snell (L) $11,700, TB @ TEX
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,500, LAD vs. COL
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,000, WAS @ MIA
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,700, PHI vs. NYM
Kluber is the priciest option on FanDuel but looks like a strong value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%. That said, he’s coming off a brutal start in his most recent outing, allowing four earned runs in just 1.2 innings vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. His Statcast data from his past two starts doesn’t paint a pretty picture either: He’s allowed an average distance of 239 feet, which represents an increase of +30 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Still, there’s a lot to like with Kluber vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has struck out in 26.5% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Kluber is also the largest favorite on the slate with -237 moneyline odds.
Snell is one of the most intriguing options on today’s slate. His Vegas data is significantly worse than the marks of the other pitchers in the stud tier, specifically his opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs vs. the Texas Rangers.
However, he might offer the best combination of peripheral statistics. He’s the only member of the stud tier to post a negative distance differential over his past two starts, while his K Prediction of 7.6 is tied for second on the slate. He also might be the best value among the stud pitchers on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%.
Kershaw has looked very much like his old self since coming off the disabled list on June 23. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his 15 starts and has posted a WHIP of 0.93 over the second half of the season. The one area where he has shown some decline is with his strikeout ability: His K/9 of 8.92 in 2018 is the third-lowest mark of his career.
Unsurprisingly, Kershaw leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 2.8 runs vs. the Colorado Rockies. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.41 on DraftKings with a comparable implied team total, and that number has increased to +7.31 when pitching in Chavez Ravine (per the Trends tool). The Rockies have been impressive offensively this season, but they have struggled to an OPS of just .674 when playing away from Coors.
Strasburg might be the most appealing option on the slate given his matchup vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has posted an awful .278 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Strasburg excellent marks in K Prediction (8.0) and opponent implied team total (3.1 runs). He’s also been effective from a Statcast perspective recently, limiting his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 20%. The one slight concern is his lack of velocity recently – he’s seen a decrease of -1.6 miles per hour on his fastball – which has historically led to poor fantasy results during the second half of the season.
Nola might be the toughest stud pitcher to make an argument for: He’s taking on the New York Mets, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of three matchups vs. them in 2018. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also really concerning, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +22 feet and hard-hit differential of +13 percentage points. His K Prediction of 6.6 is tied for seventh on today’s slate, so he doesn’t appear to offer a ton of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) either.
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Values
Josh James is priced at the dead minimum on DraftKings and will be making a spot start for the Houston Astros. He has appealing Vegas data vs. the Seattle Mariners, owning a 3.7 opponent implied team total and -175 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable marks and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.94. James has recorded 17 strikeouts in just 10.2 innings at the MLB level this season, so he has plenty of strikeout upside. The only concern is how deep he’ll be able to pitch into this game: He hasn’t made a start in over two weeks, so he could be limited to five innings or less.
Jameson Taillon is priced at a slight discount compared to the stud pitchers but offers arguably just as much upside vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve been one of the worst hitting teams all season, and their projected lineup has struggled to a .291 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Taillon owns an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -208, and his Statcast data from his past two starts is impressive: 182-foot distance, 89 mph exit velocity, and 26% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable recent Statcast marks and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Joey Lucchesi: The Giants continue to push the limits of how bad an offense can be, which puts Lucchesi squarely on the fantasy radar. He’s been effective recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.78 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings.
Liam Hendriks: He’s another cheap option at just $4,300 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 84%. He also offers significant strikeout upside given his K Prediction of 6.6. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have posted a historical Upside Rating of 17%.
Kyle Freeland: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.86 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel, and he gets one of the biggest park upgrades possible by pitching on the road in Los Angeles. He should command minimal ownership despite his elite recent production.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Mallex Smith (L)
- 2. Matt Duffy (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (S)
- 4. Tommy Pham (R)
- 5. Joey Wendle (L)
Total Salary: $22,800
The Rays lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 74 on DraftKings ranks first as well. They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Yovani Gallardo, and he’s pitched to a disastrous 6.67 ERA in 2018. He’s also been hit particularly hard over his past two contests, allowing an average exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 48%.
Among the stacked batters, no one stands out more than Choi. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Gallardo, owning a .381 wOBA and .259 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s also crushed the baseball over his past 12 games, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +36 feet.
The Rays are an even better value on FanDuel, so they unsurprisingly own the top FanDuel stack as well. That said, consider the Milwaukee Brewers if you’re looking to go in a different direction:
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 3. Jesus Aguilar (R)
- 4. Travis Shaw (L)
- 5. Ryan Braun (R)
Total Salary: $14,200
They’re taking on Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who has posted a distance differential of +14 feet over his past two starts. The Brewers are also collectively in good recent form, with Cain, Shaw, and Braun all owning distance differentials of at least +18 feet. Curtis Granderson would also be intriguing if he’s in the lineup: He owns a distance differential of +13 feet over his past six games and a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel.
Other Batters
If you’re looking for a cheap batter on DraftKings, Logan Forsythe could be your guy. He’s priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings but is projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup against Tigers left-hander Daniel Norris. Historically, comparably-priced leadoff hitters have averaged a Consistency Rating of 45.8% and an Upside Rating of 18%, which makes Forsythe an excellent target for both cash games and GPPs.
Chris Taylor is also projected to occupy the leadoff spot on today’s slate, and he’s absolutely smoked the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 271 feet, which represents a differential of +45 feet compared to his 12-month average. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits against Freeland, and Taylor has posted a .325 wOBA and .211 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Josh Donaldson has played only four games for the Indians since coming off the disabled list, but he’s posted an impressive hard-hit rate of 55% over that time frame. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits today vs. White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon, and the Indians’ implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks third on today’s slate. He’s priced at just $3,300 and has a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel, so he could be a cheap way to get exposure to their offense.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Ji-Man Choi
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
