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The MLB playoffs are finally here! The festivities will kick off with the NL Wild Card at 8:05 p.m. ET featuring the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs.
Tonight’s biggest tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel differ slightly from the traditional formats. DraftKings will feature their popular Showdown mode, where you have six utility slots that can be filled by either a pitcher or batter. The only real rules are that you must roster at least one player from each team and can stack only four batters from the same team. Relief pitchers are also scored on a different basis than starting pitchers, which makes them viable options.
FanDuel’s single game format does not feature pitchers of any kind. Instead, you’ll have to fill out your roster with one infielder, one outfielder, and three utilities, one of which is designated as the MVP. That player earns 1.5x fantasy points during the game, so choosing the correct player for that slot can make or break your lineup.
Starting Pitchers
Both the Cubs and Rockies will send left-handed pitchers to start this crucial contest:
- Jon Lester (L) $13,900, CHC vs. COL
- Kyle Freeland (L) $12,400, COL @ CHC
The Cubs will call on Lester with their season on the line, and he’s pitched to a strong 3.32 ERA in 2018. That said, his advanced stats suggest he was worse than his traditional numbers indicate, and he started to show signs of regression over the second half of the season: He posted a 4.50 ERA and allowed batters to compile a .357 wOBA after the All-Star break.
That could spell trouble against the Rockies, who fared much better against southpaws than against traditional pitchers when playing away from Coors Field. Still, Lester is getting a lot of respect from Vegas, resulting in an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and moneyline odds of -137.
One factor working in Lester’s favor is his recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 187 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 29%, all three of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages. He doesn’t offer much strikeout upside given his K Prediction of 5.4, but he might be able to limit the damage on balls put in play. The weather conditions in Chicago should also help him: The current forecast calls for a slight wind blowing in from center field.
Freeland was vastly superior to Lester over the second half of the season. He posted a 2.85 ERA and 3.10 FIP, both of which are really impressive considering he pitches half his games at Coors Field. He was also slightly better than Lester from a strikeout perspective, posting a K/9 of 8.41.
Unfortunately, his matchup might be even more difficult. The Cubs have posted a .344 wOBA and 117 wRC+ when facing a southpaw at home this season, both of which rank in the top two among all 30 MLB teams. It’s easy to see a scenario in which both of these offenses do damage in this contest, although sharp money has moved the total from 7.5 to 7.0.
Like Lester, Freeland does enter today’s contest in good form. He’s overperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts, and he has more strikeout upside given his K Prediction of 6.1. He will be making his playoff debut and pitching on short rest, but Freeland appears to offer the higher upside of the two starting pitchers.
Bullpens
Rostering relief pitchers on DraftKings seems like a sharp strategy in the Showdown format given the scoring settings. They earn more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starters and also receive bonuses for holds and saves. A relief pitcher could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on today’s slate, which makes them excellent targets at their low price points.
The Cubs bullpen has not been particularly strong over the past month of the season but still features some intriguing names. Pedro Strop took over as closer after Brandon Morrow went on the disabled list, but his status for today’s game is questionable. If he’s unavailable, Jesse Chavez could potentially fill that role. He pitched two scoreless innings against the Dodgers yesterday, and his ability to pitch multiple innings gives him more upside than virtually any other reliever on the slate.
Carl Edwards Jr. and Justin Wilson are two other names to consider. Both pitchers averaged at least 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings during the regular season, but both have also been a little shaky to end the season. Steve Cishek is another pitcher to keep an eye on, but Cubs manager Joe Maddon has expressed some reluctance to use him today after pitching three straight days.
The Rockies’ bullpen roles are a bit more defined heading into this contest. Wade Davis will serve as their closer after posting a franchise-record 43 saves during the regular season. His ERA of 4.13 is on the high side, but he’s managed a 3.55 ERA when away from Coors Field.
Adam Ottavino is also squarely on the radar. He leads all of the bullpen arms with a K/9 of 13.0 this season, so he has the ability to do a lot of damage in a short amount of time. After Ottovino, Scott Oberg, Seunghwan Oh, and Chris Rusin look like the relievers of choice for manager Bud Black. Oberg and Oh have the best strikeout upside among the trio, but Rusin might be able to pitch multiple innings as a converted starting pitcher.
Offenses
Rockies Projected Lineup
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
- 5. Matt Holliday (R)
- 6. Ian Desmond (R)
- 7. David Dahl (L)
- 8. Chris Iannetta (R)
The Rockies are expected to roll with a righty-heavy lineup against Lester, which means that Carlos Gonzalez will likely find himself on the bench. Holliday drew the start in their last matchup with a lefty during the regular season and has posted a .385 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months.
Arenado and Story will likely garner the most attention for the Rockies, and with good reason: Both have absolutely crushed lefties over the past 12 months. Arenado has posted a .489 wOBA and .371 ISO, while Story has posted a .439 wOBA and .351 ISO. Those numbers are obviously a bit inflated by Coors Field, but these guys can flat out rake against left-handers. Of the two, Story enters today’s contest in the best recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +21 feet.
Blackmon and LeMahieu will occupy the top-two spots in the lineup, but both could be worthy of some fade consideration. Chuck Nasty has struggled when facing a left-hander on the road, owning a Plus/Minus of -0.63 on DraftKings over the past two seasons (per the Trends tool). LeMahieu is on the positive side of his splits against Lester but enters today’s contest in dreadful form: He’s posted an average distance of 183 feet and hard-hit rate of just 26% over his past 14 games.
Dahl is an interesting X-Factor. He’s been batting in the third spot in the lineup for the Rockies recently, but that may not be the case against a left-handed pitcher. If he is batting lower in the lineup, he seems overpriced across the industry.
Cubs Projected Lineup
- 1. Daniel Murphy (L)
- 2. Ben Zobrist (S)
- 3. Javier Baez (R)
- 4. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 5. Kris Bryant (R)
- 6. Albert Almora (R)
- 7. David Bote (R)
- 9. Willson Contreras (R)
The Cubs are also expected to make some lineup changes against a left-hander. Bote will likely move into the lineup and play third base, which means Bryant will likely replace Jason Heyward in the outfield. Bote has crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .382 wOBA and .216 ISO, so the substitution makes sense from an offensive standpoint.
Baez has emerged as a star this season and was at one point considered the frontrunner for the NL MVP. He’s posted outstanding numbers against lefties in particular and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +19 feet. He’s also been the Cubs’ biggest threat on the bases this season, giving him immense upside in this matchup.
Murphy and Rizzo should occupy key spots in the Cubs lineup, but neither has found much success against southpaws over the past 12 months. That said, both batters have posted a distance differential of at least +15 feet over the past 15 days, which makes them interesting targets. They’ll likely have lower ownership than the big name right-handed bats on today’s slate.
Bryant will likely be a popular target for those stacking the Cubs, but he’s had a down year offensively. His wRC+ of 125 is the lowest mark of his career, and he managed to club just 13 HRs in 457 plate appearances. His marks over the past 15 days are also unimpressive, so his elevated price tag is based on reputation more than anything else. He seems like a prime fade candidate to me.
Targeting the hitters at the bottom of the lineup could be an interesting strategy. In addition to Bote, Almora and Contreras have also been excellent against left-handed pitchers. All three will likely be low owned as well.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Wade Davis
Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
