The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,900, WAS vs. ATL
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,600, CLE vs. MIN
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,200, ARI vs. PHI
Scherzer is the highest-priced pitcher across the industry, although his $11,900 salary on FanDuel does come with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s taking on the Atlanta Braves and unsurprisingly leads all pitchers with his opponent implied total of 3.1 runs. He is also a strong -199 favorite and leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.4. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.80 and Consistency Rating of 62.9% on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
The only concern with Scherzer is the subpar Statcast data from his past two starts. He’s allowed an average distance of 221 feet, which when combined with his excellent fantasy production results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -86. That said, Scherzer seems to be immune to bad luck given his elite strikeout ability: He’s actually averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.20 on FanDuel when entering a start with a RBBL of -76 or worse.
Carrasco was one of the unluckier pitchers in the first half of the season but has turned things around since the All-Star Break. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.64 over his past five starts, including a dominant 10-strikeout performance against the Twins in his last outing. He’s facing the Twins again and has arguably the slate’s most impressive Vegas data with a 3.3-run opponent implied total and -242 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.42 on FanDuel, and Carrasco has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.88 over 13 such starts.
Greinke is the best value of the trio on DraftKings, where his $10,100 salary makes him nearly $4,000 cheaper than Scherzer and $1,500 cheaper than Carrasco. He has an intriguing matchup vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, who have posted the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers in 2018. His K Prediction of 7.4 ranks fourth on the slate.
Greinke enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 195 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 27%, all three of which represent sizable decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Pitchers with comparable recent Statcast marks and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.32 on DraftKings.
Values
Tyler Glasnow was excellent in his first appearance for the Rays, striking out five batters and allowing just one run over three innings. Glasnow has elite strikeout stuff, evidenced by a K/9 of 11.75 in 2018, but he has struggled thanks to sky-high walk and home-run rates. His xFIP of 3.35 is nearly a full run lower than his traditional ERA of 4.27, so he could be due for progression with his new club.
Unfortunately, it’s unknown how the Rays will utilize Glasnow moving forward. He spent the entire season in the bullpen for the Pirates, and the Rays have utilized a weird mix of starters and relievers this year. Its possible he pitched only three innings in his first start because the Rays are stretching him out, but it’s also possible that he’ll serve as only a bridge starter for the remainder of the season. That uncertainty makes him impossible to trust for cash games but could make him an intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has an elite matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .297 wOBA and 27.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Chase Anderson has arguably the best matchup of all pitchers vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has the second-worst splits-adjusted wOBA (.287) and strikeout rate (27.7%), and the Padres have managed the second-fewest runs per game in 2018. Anderson has impressive Vegas data with a 3.6-run opponent implied total and -187 moneyline odds.
Anderson also has excellent peripherals. His K Prediction of 7.3 is tied for fourth on the slate, and he’s posted a distance differential of -9 feet over his past two starts. Add it all up, and comparable pitchers have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +3.69 on DraftKings. He looks like a strong option in all formats, and his $7,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a nice Bargain Rating of 69%.
Andrew Heaney is another pitcher with an outstanding matchup. He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, whose projected lineup has averaged a .288 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months. The Tigers have fared much better against left-handers in 2018, ranking 14th in wOBA and wRC+, but much of that damage was done when Miguel Cabrera was in the lineup. They rank just 20th and 21st in those categories since the beginning of June. Heaney trails only Scherzer and Carrasco in opponent implied total and moneyline odds, but his K Prediction of 5.6 makes him better suited for cash games than GPPs.
Fastballs
Sean Newcomb: He’s a massive underdog against Scherzer but coming off a dominant performance of 57.0 FanDuel points in his last start. He’s expensive on DraftKings, but his $7,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also projected for less than 1% ownership.
Miles Mikolas: The Lizard King has pitched to a 2.75 ERA this season, but his overall fantasy viability has been held down by his pedestrian K/9 of 6.36. That shouldn’t be as big of a concern against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Cole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Justin Upton (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 4. Albert Pujols (R)
- 7. Francisco Arcia (L)
Total Salary: $19,900
The Angels are implied for just 4.8 runs, which ranks outside the top 10. They are also expected to be without center fielder Mike Trout, who is still recovering from a wrist injury. Still, the Angels grade out as the top stack in large part because of their elite recent Statcast data. Calhoun and Ohtani in particular have crushed the ball over the past 15 days, with each owning a distance differential of at least +32 feet. Upton has also been in good recent form, posting positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past 14 games.
They have an excellent matchup vs Tigers right-hander Jacob Turner, who will be making his first start this season. He’s managed a K/9 of just 5.75 at the MLB level, so the Angels should have plenty of opportunities to put their elite batted-ball skills on display.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Texas Rangers.
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 4. Adrian Beltre (R)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L)
Total Salary: $14,700
The Rangers’ implied total of 5.5 runs is tied for third, as is their Team Value Rating of 73 on FanDuel. Choo, Odor and Gallo in particular look like excellent values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 93%. They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, who has been a shell of his former self in 2018. He owns an ERA of 5.49 through his first 22 starts while posting a career-low ground-ball rate of 44.7%. The Rangers could do a lot of damage against Hernandez in the Texas summer heat.
Other Batters
Philip Ervin is expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for the Cincinnati Reds and has an excellent matchup against Mets left-hander Jason Vargas. Ervin has crushed lefties over the past 12 months, owning a .445 wOBA and .226 ISO, and his $2,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Blue Jays are experiencing strong reverse line movement, with their implied total increasing from 4.5 runs to 4.8 runs despite receiving just 24% of the bets. One member of the Jays who’s worthy of consideration is Teoscar Hernandez, who has posted an impressive Statcast line over his past 10 games: 252-foot distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 33% hard-hit rate. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits against Red Sox left-hander Drew Pomeranz.
The Yankees are implied for 5.3 runs and have a strong matchup against White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. He’s pitched to an xFIP of 5.67 in 2018, which is the second-worst mark among qualified starters. Giancarlo Stanton has been in good recent form for the Yankees, owning a hard-hit rate of 51%, which could make him a strong option. The biggest concern is the weather forecast, which currently calls for a 42% chance of precipitation.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Tyler Glasnow
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
