The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
One pitcher on today’s slate deserves his own tier on DraftKings:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,800, HOU @ BAL
The gap between Cole and the rest of the pitching options is massive. He’s averaged 25.3 DraftKings points per start over the past 12 months, which is more than eight points greater than the No. 2 scorer (Jon Lester). He’s been particularly impressive in 2018, pitching to a 2.92 ERA and 12.60 K/9. He ranks third among American League pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
He appears to be in a great spot vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup owns a wOBA of .300 and strikeout rate of 24.4% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Cole leads all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.4 runs) and moneyline odds (-230). His K Prediction of 7.9 is also tops on the slate.
That said, Cole is not without risk. The Astros have locked up their playoff position in the American League, so they may not want to push Cole very hard in today’s outing. The fact that the current forecast in Baltimore calls for a 61% chance of precipitation at game time doesn’t help things, either. Cole has also allowed his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 253 feet, which represents an increase of +38 feet compared to his 12-month average. He could be an interesting fade candidate for guarantee prize pools (GPPs) given his projected ownership of at least 40% on DraftKings.
Values
If you are looking to avoid Cole, the pitching options are thin: None of the other starters have a K Prediction above 5.4 or an opponent implied team total below 3.9 runs.
Marco Gonzales makes a lot of sense on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs and moneyline odds of -170 against the Texas Rangers, and their projected lineup has posted a 25.1% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Gonzales’ most appealing data point is his recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 185 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 27%, all three of which represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data and Bargain Ratings have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.67 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Julio Teheran is another pitcher who enters today’s contest in good recent form. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of just 20% over his past two starts, which represents a decrease of -15 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
He has a solid matchup vs. the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .306 against right-handers over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs and K Prediction of 5.4 both rank third on today’s slate.
Francisco Liriano could be an interesting GPP option on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 74%. His K Prediction of 5.5 ranks second on the slate, and he also owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet. Historically, pitchers with a comparable distance differential have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.02 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Trevor Williams: The Cubs have not been the same team offensively since the start of September, struggling to a .295 wOBA and 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Williams has virtually no strikeout upside, but his Statcast data from his past two starts is elite: 163-foot distance, 84 mph exit velocity, and 14% hard-hit rate.
Jon Lester: He’s struggled over the second half of the season, posting a 4.97 ERA, but could have viability on a short slate. He’s a -156 favorite vs. the Pirates and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -22 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
- 1. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 6. Kyle Seager (L)
- 7. Ben Gamel (L)
Total Salary: $20,700
The Mariners’ implied team total of 5.2 runs ranks fourth on the main slate, while their Team Value Rating of 70 ranks third on DraftKings. They have a nice matchup vs. Rangers right-hander Ariel Jurado, who has pitched to a dismal 6.66 ERA in 2018. He’s also allowed a WHIP of 1.69 over the past 12 months, which is the second-worst mark on today’s slate.
Gamel could be an important differentiator in Mariners stacks. He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings and enters today’s contest in elite recent form: He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +32 feet and hard-hit differential of +24 percentage points. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits and is affordable at $3,500.
If you’re looking for a slightly cheaper option to pair with Cole on FanDuel, consider the Kansas City Royals:
- 2. Raul Mondesi (S)
- 3. Alex Gordon (L)
- 4. Salvador Perez (R)
- 6. Jorge Bonifacio (R)
Total Salary: $11,900
The Royals’ implied team total of 4.3 runs is middling, but they look like an excellent target on FanDuel. The stacked batters in particular seem like great values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 90%.
They’re taking on Indians right-hander Josh Tomlin, who has pitched to a HR/9 of 3.17 over the past 12 months. He’s also managed a K/9 of just 5.96, so the Royals should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play.
Other Batters
Marwin Gonzalez continues to serve as one of the best values on DraftKings. He’s projected to occupy the cleanup spot at $4,200, and the Astros’ implied team total of 5.3 runs ranks second on the slate. He’s also in good recent form, exceeding his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past 10 games.
Right-handed batters have absolutely destroyed Liriano this season, posting a .358 wOBA while clubbing 17 HRs. That makes Tyler Austin a really intriguing option for the Minnesota Twins. He’s posted a .351 wOBA and .299 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months and owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +23 feet.
Jeimer Candelario is another affordable option at $3,900 on DraftKings and will start the game on the positive side of his batting splits against Gabriel Moya. He’s posted a .350 wOBA and .203 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, so he has the potential to pay off his salary in just one at-bat.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
