The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Stud
One pitcher stands out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R) $13,000, WAS vs. NYM
The gap between Scherzer and the rest of today’s pitching options is massive. He’s averaged 27.6 fantasy points and a Plus/Minus of +5.2 over the past year on DraftKings; both are the top marks on the slate by a wide margin. He’s also averaged more than two additional strikeouts per nine innings than the rest of the pitchers.
Unsurprisingly, he leads today’s pitchers in three key categories: opponent implied team total (2.9 runs), moneyline odds (-285), and K Prediction (8.3). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.60 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He’s taking on the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .290 wOBA and 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He owns the most Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so building any lineups without him on today’s slate seems suboptimal.
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Values
Masahiro Tanaka is one of the only pitchers with a chance at matching Scherzer’s upside on today’s slate. He’s been excellent recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.13 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts, and he’s allowed just one earned run over his past 21 innings. His recent Statcast data supports his dominance: His average distance of 183 feet represents a decrease of -20 feet compared to his 12-month average.
That said, he has a brutal matchup today vs. the Boston Red Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .343 and strikeout rate of just 19.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for 3.8 runs. Tanaka is priced at $10,700 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and implied team totals have averaged a negative Plus/Minus.
Cody Reed is coming off an absolute gem in his most recent outing vs. the Chicago Cubs, allowing just two hits while striking out 10 batters over five innings. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also outstanding, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -34 feet.
He remains cheap at just $5,500 for today’s matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, who have averaged the fewest runs per game this season. They’re implied for 4.0 runs, and pitchers with comparable salaries, distance differentials, and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.49 on DraftKings.
Matt Boyd is one of the most intriguing options on today’s slate. He’s been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.59 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, but his recent Statcast data is frightening. He’s allowed his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 263 feet and a hard-hit rate of 45%, both of which represent significant increases compared to his 12-month averages. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -81, which suggests that some regression could be headed his way.
That said, that may not start today vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve been one of the worst offensive teams all season, and Boyd’s K Prediction of 7.1 trails only Scherzer’s on today’s slate. He’s been priced up aggressively over the past month, owning a salary change of +$3,400 on DraftKings, so you’re going to have to pay for his potential upside.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s another pitcher with the potential to match Scherzer’s upside, but his matchup with the Yankees is about as tough as it gets: They’ve posted a .358 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months. Rodriguez also enters today’s contest in poor recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +30 feet.
Vincent Velasquez: He’s posted a K/9 of 10.08 over the past 12 months but has been roughed up for nine earned runs over his past six innings pitched. He has the fourth-highest K Prediction on today’s slate and should have low ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jason Vargas: His Vegas data is predictably not impressive opposing Scherzer and the Nationals, but he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season in his most recent outing. He leads all pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- 1. Victor Robles (R)
- 2. Trea Turner (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 7. Matt Wieters (S)
- 8. Adrian Sanchez (R)
Total Salary: $19,800
The Nationals’ implied team total of 5.2 runs ranks second on the slate and has already increased by +0.2 runs since opening. They will likely be one of the most popular team targets on the slate, but stacking them in the above 1-2-3-7-8 order should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. Projected No. 8 hitter Sanchez could be an important differentiator: He owns 10 Pro Trends, and batters with a comparable lineup spot and number of Pro Trends have historically averaged an Upside Rating of 20%.
Vargas is coming off a good start but has been a disaster for most of the season, owning a 6.47 ERA and 1.93 HR/9. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also concerning, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +14 feet.
If you’re looking for a cheaper stack option to pair with Scherzer on FanDuel, consider the Detroit Tigers:
- 1. Jeimer Candelario (S)
- 2. Christin Stewart (L)
- 3. Nick Castellanos (R)
- 4. Victor Martinez (S)
Total Salary: $11,200
The Tigers are implied for 4.7 runs, which makes them an appealing target given their current salaries: Their Team Value Rating of 90 on FanDuel is the top mark on the slate. They’re taking on Royals right-hander Jorge Lopez, who owns a pedestrian 4.56 xFIP in 2018. He’s also managed a K/9 of just 6.49, so the Tigers should have a lot of opportunities to put balls in play.
Other Batters
Andrew McCutchen continues to crush the baseball for the New York Yankees, owning a 262-foot average distance, 97 mile per hour exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate over his past 12 contests. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Rodriguez, owning a .361 wOBA and .203 ISO vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup, which only increases his value.
Ji-Man Choi is another batter in good recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 53% over his past 11 games, all three of which represent significant increases compared to his 12-month averages. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Blue Jays right-hander Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed a .365 wOBA and 1.72 HR/9 against left-handed batters in 2018.
Daniel Palka looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $2,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s taking on Indians right-hander Josh Tomlin, and Palka has posted a .350 wOBA and .289 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also posted a distance differential of +11 feet over his past 10 games and should carry minimal ownership on today’s slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Nick Castellanos
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
