The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a small six-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, two pitchers are priced well above the rest:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,900, LAD @ STL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (L) $9,100, BOS vs. TOR
There’s not a ton to fall in love with at the high end today, and Kershaw is the most-expensive pitcher on both sites with some concerning data points. It’s a tough matchup against an opposing Cardinals team that ranks seventh in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (per FanGraphs).
Kershaw’s strikeout upside could also be limited with a subpar 5.4 K Prediction, likely due to the Cardinals projected lineup owning a paltry 20.1% strikeout rate against lefties. That said, their 3.2 implied run total is quite low, giving Kershaw some safety. Per our MLB Trends tool, similarly-priced pitchers with comparable strikeout upside and Vegas data have reached value with a +1.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus but have posted just a mediocre 3% Upside Rating.
Rodriguez checks in with the largest moneyline odds on the slate (-250) and faces a Blue Jays implied for a bottom-three 3.5 implied run total. That said, the projected Toronto lineup doesn’t strike out much against lefties (21.7% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), and they own a strong .323 weighted on-base average (wOBA) within the same time frame.
Rodriguez’s 6.2 K Prediction is on the low end for his price tag, but it’s actually the second highest on today’s slate. Gross. His recent form is a huge concern, allowing a 251-foot batted-ball distance and 57% and 47% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over his past two starts. Neither one of these guys inspires a ton of confidence for cash games.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Values
As a pure punt, Jason Vargas looks underpriced at $5,000 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 92% Bargain Rating. The Mets are reasonable -161 moneyline favorites against the Marlins, and their implied run total of 3.6 is hardly intimidating. Over his past two games, Vargas has yielded an impressive batted-ball distance of 193 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and a slate-low hard-hit rate of 28%.
Fastballs
Dylan Bundy: The Orioles are +165 moneyline underdogs against the Athletics, but Bundy could still provide some decent tournament upside at a discount. His 7.1 K Prediction leads the slate, and he’s only $6,300 on DraftKings.
Similarly-priced pitchers with comparable Vegas numbers and K Predictions have been surprisingly consistent at low ownership, providing a +0.44 DraftKings Plus/Minus at only 5.2% average ownership.
Brett Anderson: In the same game, Anderson will likely be more popular than Bundy, but he could be worth the high ownership against an Orioles team that ranks 29th in WRC+ against lefties this season. Their projected lineup owns a slate-high 26.3% strikeout rate over the past year. The concern is that he could be on a pitch count in his return from a forearm injury, but on a slate with limited options, he’s still a nice target in GPPs.
Mike Leake: He doesn’t have high strikeout upside (3.7 K Prediction), so his price is certainly tough to justify in cash games, but he does boast some of the best Statcast data on the main slate. Over his last two starts, he has surrendered a 197-foot batted-ball distance and slate-low 24% fly-ball rate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Athletics, whose 5.2 implied run total trails only the Red Sox’s mark of 5.7.
- 1. Ramon Laureano (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
- 6. Stephen Piscotty (R)
Total Salary: $23,500
The Athletics will take on Bundy, who is no stranger to giving up the long ball with a slate-high 2.19 HR/9 over the past year. Oakland’s projected lineup carries the second-highest wOBA on the slate (.338) against right-handed pitching.
Laureano, who is projected to lead off, has dramatic batting splits in his favor today with .063 wOBA and .200 ISO differentials, but the player most likely to break through may be Chapman. He’s in excellent batted-ball form, sporting a 229-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity and 40% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.01 Plus/Minus and 17% Upside Rating.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Mets.
- 1. Amed Rosario (R)
- 3. Michael Conforto (L)
- 4. Jay Bruce (L)
- 5. Todd Frazier (R)
Total Salary: $12,200
The Mets are nothing special, but this is an elite spot against Marlins pitcher Jeff Brigham. In his last start, he got absolutely pummeled, allowing an insane 280-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 60% and 50% fly-ball and hard-hit rates.
In the Nos. 4 and No. 5 spots, Bruce and Frazier have absolutely immaculate recent Statcast data, posting 230-foot recent batted-ball distances or higher over the past 15 days. Bruce is probably the most likely to break out, with a massive 50% hard-hit rate over that same time period and a +33 recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) score.
Other Batters
The Boston implied total of 5.7 runs is the highest mark on the slate, and two Red Sox batters stand above the rest. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi will likely be popular stacking options in the Nos. 1 and No. 2 spots, but only the latter is on the positive side of his batting splits. Betts still probably carries more power with a splits-adjusted .422 wOBA and .267 ISO over the past year.
Benintendi has struggled lately, but players in similar lineup positions with comparable Vegas data have historically provided a +2.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 20% Upside Rating. Rodriguez may not be the best pitching option on the slate, but if looking to create high-upside unique lineups, consider adding him to your Red Sox stacks to differentiate in tournaments.
It’s not a high-upside matchup against Austin Gomber and the Cardinals, but it seems like nothing can stop Chris Taylor right now. He carries a NSFW 295-foot batted-ball distance, 97 mph exit velocity, and 69% fly-ball rate over his last six contests. Batting second, Justin Turner is also interesting on the right side of elite splits, including a .438 wOBA and .224 ISO over the past year.
Mitch Haniger is one of the top-rated players in our Models on the right side of his batting splits, and he’s also doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 52% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. It’s a solid matchup against Odrisamer Despaigne, and the Mariners could easily go overlooked in tournaments with an implied total just outside the top tier.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Matt Chapman
Photo credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
