The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 5:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
We’re back to the traditional format on today’s slate, so you’ll need to roster two pitchers on DraftKings and one pitcher on FanDuel. The scoring settings are back to normal as well, so you’ll likely want to focus on the four starting pitchers:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) $8,900, LAD vs. ATL
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $8,300, ATL @ LAD
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $5,800, MIL vs. COL
- Antonio Senzatela (R) $5,200, COL @ MIL
Ryu is the most-expensive pitcher on the slate and enters today’s contest in excellent form. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.47 over his past seven starts on DraftKings and has limited his past three opponents to just one total run over 19 innings.
He has arguably the best matchup on the slate vs. the Atlanta Braves, whose projected lineup has posted a .305 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. As a result, he owns the top marks in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-170). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.74 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The one area where he doesn’t stand out is with his strikeout upside. The Dodgers lean heavily on their bullpen, so Ryu has topped 90 pitches just once in his past nine starts. He seems unlikely to pitch more than six innings or so, and his resulting K Prediction of 6.2 ranks just third on the slate.
Foltynewicz is an underdog against Ryu and the Dodgers but has undoubtedly been the Braves’ best pitcher this season. He posted a 2.85 ERA and 9.93 K/9 during the regular season and ranked ninth in WAR among NL pitchers.
Unfortunately, the Dodgers represent a brutal matchup. They’ve been death to right-handers over the past 12 months; their projected lineup has posted a .356 wOBA. Foltynewicz does have upside – his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks first on the slate – but he has considerable downside as well.
The pitching options for the Brewers and Rockies aren’t nearly as strong. Milwaukee will try their hand at “bullpenning” tonight, with Woodruff tapped to start the game. Their bullpen has been a strength all season, ranking fifth in both ERA and innings pitched in 2018. While that strategy may play to their advantage in real baseball, it limits their appeal in DFS. There are no bonuses for holds or saves in the traditional format, so a reliever will likely have to pitch a stellar couple of innings to generate enough value.
Still, Josh Hader probably deserves some consideration. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings and has been downright filthy in 2018, owning a 2.05 xFIP and 15.82 K/9. He pitches multiple innings frequently – including in the NL Central tiebreaker against the Chicago Cubs – so he seems like the most likely candidate to do damage out of the pen.
The Rockies burned through their two best starters in the NL West tiebreaker and NL Wild Card, so they’ll turn to Senzatela in Game 1 of the NLDS. His numbers over the course of the regular season were pretty mediocre, but he’s actually been pretty impressive when pitching away from Coors over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 2.62 ERA over his final six away starts and limited opposing batters to a .258 wOBA. He’ll likely be a contrarian option given his low K Prediction and high opponent implied team total, but he doesn’t need to clear a high bar to have value on a small slate.
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 5. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 7. Yasiel Puig (R)
Total Salary: $21,900
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.1 runs ranks second on the slate, but they have undoubtedly been the best hitting team out of the four available options for the duration of the season. They rank second in wRC+ — a metric that weights batting numbers to account for stadium disparities – and none of the other teams on today’s slate finished inside the top 12. They’ve been even better against right-handed pitchers, leading all teams in wRC+ and ISO while ranking second in wOBA.
Foltynewicz represents a tough test, but he did see a decline in his numbers over the second half of the season: His strikeout rate dropped from 10.62 to 9.07 while his xFIP rose from 3.56 to 4.04. He also enters this contest in mediocre form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +10 feet.
Conversely, the Dodgers have a host of batters with excellent recent Statcast numbers. Pederson, Grandal, and Puig have each posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet, and Muncy has an unreal 62% hard-hit rate over his past 10 games. The Brewers should be the most popular stack on the slate given their superior implied team total, which only increases the Dodgers’ appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Other Batters
Ryan Braun looks like a good starting point if you are targeting the Brewers on FanDuel. His $3,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged a 99 mph exit velocity and 73% hard-hit rate over his past eight games.
The Braves will likely garner the lowest ownership given their matchup with Ryu, which makes them a viable option on a two-game slate. One batter definitely worthy of some consideration is Johan Camargo. He’s expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +31 feet and hard-hit differential of +8 percentage points.
The Rockies are a mediocre offensive team when playing away from Coors Field – especially against right-handed pitching – but Charlie Blackmon could be an interesting target. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +19 feet and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against the majority of the Brewers relievers.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above (left to right): Mike Foltynewicz
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA Today Sports.
