The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost at least $10,000:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,200, HOU vs. LAA
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $10,600, ATL vs. CHC
- J.A. Happ (L) $10,100, NYY vs. DET
Verlander is one of the best strikeout pitchers on the slate, evidenced by his 11.86 SO/9 over the past year. He will take on a projected Angels lineup that boasts a low 22.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, but his 7.5 K Prediction is still tied for the second-highest mark on the night in this subpar matchup. Working in Verlander’s favor is the Angels’ low .293 weighted on-base average (wOBA) — the third-lowest mark of the night.
Additionally, the Angels possess the slate’s lowest opponent implied team total of 2.9 runs; the Astros check in as massive -238 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a stellar +5.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 66.5% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Foltynewicz has been solid this year, possessing a 2.67 earned run average (ERA) and 3.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), per FanGraphs. He owns the second-highest salary, but he has the most unfavorable matchup among the top-priced pitchers. His 6.9 K Prediction, -125 moneyline odds, and the Cubs’ opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs all trail the marks for Verlander and Happ. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data have historically struggled to meet salary-based expectations, averaging a -2.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Happ has dominated as a member of the Yankees, averaging a +10.95 FanDuel Pus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating. He has the benefit of playing a projected Tigers lineup that owns an atrocious .286 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Due to the favorable matchup, the Yankees are the slate’s largest favorite (-305 moneyline odds). Pitchers with at least -300 moneyline odds have crushed salary-based expectations, averaging a +6.98 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an exceptional 72.6% Consistency Rating since 2012.
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Values
With just eight games on tap Thursday night, there are few value plays. German Marquez has a solid 63% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he’s been dominant over his past 10 starts, averaging a +11.76 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 90% Consistency Rating. He’ll take on a Padres team that ranks 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this year.
Marquez’s 7.5 K Prediction is tied with Verlander’s for the slate’s second-highest mark, and the Rockies are -143 moneyline favorites. He’ll also benefit from Petco Park (Park Factor of 76 for pitchers), which has historically yielded a +1.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus to opposing pitchers. Marquez is an excellent value, has a solid matchup, and is in a good pitching environment.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: The Diamondbacks are +126 underdogs on the road, but Ray could still be in play in GPPs. He’s sporting a 195-foot average batted-ball distance over his past two starts, which is 23 feet below his 12-month average. Moreover, his 8.1 K Prediction is the slate’s highest mark.
Rich Hill: Arizona ranks 10th in wRC+ against lefties this season, but the Dodgers are -137 moneyline favorites and the Diamondbacks’ opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is the third lowest on the slate.
Rick Porcello: He boasts a mediocre 6.7 K Prediction, but the Red Sox are -191 moneyline favorites. Further, the projected White Sox lineup sports a slate-high splits-adjusted 27.7% strikeout rate over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the New York Yankees.
- 1. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 2. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 3. Miguel Andujar (R)
- 4. Luke Voit (R)
- 5. Gleyber Torres (R)
Total Salary: $23,700
The Yankees’ implied team total of 5.6 runs is the slate’s highest mark. They’ll take on lefty Francisco Liriano, who possesses a slate-high 1.58 WHIP and weak 1.45 HR/9 over the past year. Liriano has been throttled over his past two games, allowing four earned runs in each. Consequently, he has the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate, allowing a 236-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate.
Stanton has obliterated left-handed pitchers over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .455 wOBA and .333 ISO. Given the absurd amount of hard contact Liriano has allowed over his past two starts, Stanton could be in a bounce-back spot. Speaking of hard contact, Voit is averaging a 260-foot batted-ball distance and 99 mph exit velocity over his past six games. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Red Sox.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 6. Eduardo Nunez (R)
Total Salary: $14,400
The Yankees and Red Sox (5.3) are the only two teams on the main slate with an implied team total over 5.0 runs. The Red Sox will take on righty Lucas Giolito, who could be due for regression, evidenced by his -29 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score.
The 1-2-3-6 stack could lead to a more contrarian lineup, as Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez are likely to be popular. Nunez has homered in back-to-back games and is in great form, sporting positive 15-day/12-month differentials in average distance (+38 feet), exit velocity (+8 mph), and hard-hit rate (+23 percentage points). Hitters with comparable batted-ball differentials have historically averaged a +1.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
The Astros own the slate’s third-highest implied team total (4.7 runs), and first baseman Tyler White has the highest wOBA (.438) and ISO (.333) among first basemen Thursday night. Teammate Alex Bregman has also crushed left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a .402 wOBA and .261 ISO. Opposing lefty Andrew Heaney has gotten smoked over his past two starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 11.1 innings. White’s a nice value on FanDuel with his 98% Bargain Rating.
The Rockies will go low owned on the road at Petco Park, which has Park Factor of zero, the exact opposite of Coors Field. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story will face lefty Eric Lauer, who is fresh off the disabled list. Arenado and Story each possess elite wOBAs and ISOs against lefties over the past year, and the former’s +22 RBBL Score suggests progression could be on the horizon.
Khris Davis will square off against lefty Wade LeBlanc, who’s allowed opposing teams to average a 236-foot average batted-ball distance and 91 mph exit velocity over his past two starts. Although Davis is struggling of late, he’s still averaging a 241-foot average distance and 93 mph exit velocity over his past 14 games. Additionally, Davis is averaging a 59% fly-ball rate, which could coincide well with LeBlanc’s 41% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.A. Happ
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
