The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are two pitchers on DraftKings who cost at least $9,000:
- Clay Buchholz (R) $9,500, ARI @ SD
- Tanner Roark (R) $9,100, WSH @ STL
Thursday’s pitching slate is weak, which should provide for an interesting night. Buchholz has the most favorable matchup against a projected Padres lineup that possesses a 33.5% strikeout rate and .273 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitchers over the past year. While his 227-foot average recent batted-ball distance and 94 mph exit velocity marks are worrisome, the Padres have allowed the third-highest average Plus/Minus (+2.71) to right-handed pitchers on DraftKings this season. Also, the Padres’ 3.7 implied run total is the only mark under 4.0 tonight.
Additionally, Buchholz’s 8.0 K Prediction leads the slate by 1.7 strikeouts. He’ll also have the benefit of pitching at Petco Park, which boasts a Park Factor of 82. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +2.83 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 61.7% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
It’s odd that Roark has the second-highest salary on DraftKings since the Nationals are +118 road underdogs against the red-hot Cardinals. Roark’s 88 mph exit velocity and 18% hard-hit rate are encouraging, but there are too many aspects working against him to make him a cash-game option. Roark boasts a mediocre 5.6 K Prediction, and the Cardinals own a 4.6 implied run total.
Pitchers with comparable K Predictions have historically failed to provide value, and the 4.6 implied run total only magnifies that. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a -0.61 Plus/Minus with a 47.4% Consistency Rating.
Values
Luke Weaver has a difficult matchup against a projected Nationals lineup that has one of the lowest splits-adjusted strikeout rates (21.8%) and wOBAs (.328) on the slate. However, the Cardinals check in as -120 moneyline favorites, and the Nationals’ 4.1 implied run total is the slate’s third-lowest mark. The upside may not be there for Weaver (5.6 K Prediction), but his 190-foot recent average batted-ball distance is 16 feet below his 15-day/12-month average.
Weaver’s circumstances aren’t far off from Roark’s, but you’re getting a $2,000 discount along with a home favorite pitcher. Historically, home favorites have averaged a Plus/Minus nearly two points greater than road underdogs.
Ervin Santana has been dreadful over the past month, averaging a -6.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and over his past two starts he’s allowed a 242-foot average batted-ball distance and 93 mph exit velocity. That said, the Twins are the slate’s largest favorite (-164 moneyline odds), and the Tigers’ 4.0 implied run total is the slate’s second-lowest total.
Overall, it’s a solid matchup for Santana, as the Tigers rank dead last in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). He’s a serviceable pitching option on a slate where there are no good options — just different degrees of bad.
Fastballs
Julio Teheran: The Braves are slight underdogs (+108 moneyline odds), but Teheran’s 6.3 K Prediction is the slate’s second-highest mark. The projected Rockies lineup possesses a 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Sam Gaviglio: His 6.2 K Prediction is one of three K Predictions higher than 6.0 Thursday night, and the Blue Jays’ -131 moneyline odds are third-highest on the slate.
Jon Gray: He’s been steady over the past month, averaging a +6.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating. Gray’s 10.40 SO/9 mark over the past year is the highest on the slate, and the projected Braves lineup owns a 27.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Justin Upton (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 4. Albert Pujols (R)
- 5. Andrelton Simmons (R)
Total Salary: $23,300
The Angels are implied for 5.4 runs against Rangers righty Ariel Jurado. He’s been atrocious this season, averaging a 1.43 WHIP, 2.28 HR/9, and 3.56 SO/9. Jurado has allowed loads of hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 95 mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Overall, it’s a great spot for the Angels, whose implied run total has increased by 0.3 (5.1 runs to 5.4 runs) since the line opened.
Except for Simmons, all of the stacked Angels are on the positive side of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits. Most notably, Ohtani boasts an absurd .414 wOBA and .316 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months; over his past seven games, he possesses a +28-foot 15-day/12-month distance differential.
Calhoun is also in good recent form, hitting opposing pitchers to the tune of a 254-foot average batted-ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 54% hard-hit rate. All of those marks exceed his 15-day/12-month differentials. The Angels will likely be a popular stack tonight given they have the slate’s second-highest implied run total.
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One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
- 1. Curtis Granderson (L)
- 2. Devon Travis (R)
- 3. Justin Smoak (S)
- 5. Kendrys Morales (S)
Total Salary: $12,100
It’s a good spot for the Blue Jays, whose 88 Team Value Rating on FanDuel is tied for the third-best mark on the slate. They’re implied for 5.1 runs against Royals righty Glenn Sparkman, who owns the slate’s highest WHIP (1.76) over the past 12 months. Sparkman’s recent batted-ball data is awful, allowing opposing hitters to average a 228-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 42% hard-hit rate.
Granderson possesses a solid 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s crushed righties over the past year, evidenced by his .333 wOBA and .204 ISO. Additionally, Granderson is generating loads of hard contact over his past eight games with his 97 mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate is 16 percentage points higher than his 12-month average.
Other Batters
A game stack of Angels-Rangers tonight could make sense, as they own the highest implied run totals on the slate and their Team Value Ratings rank within the top four on DraftKings and FanDuel. Rougned Odor has crushed right-handed pitchers over the past year, evidenced by his .337 wOBA and .212 ISO, and he owns a distance differential of +22 feet over his past 13 games.
The Diamondbacks should be low-owned tonight since they’re at Petco Park and their 4.4 implied run total is one of the lower marks on the slate. David Peralta makes for a strong tournament play: His 15-day/12-month distance differential of +28 feet is one of the highest differentials at the position. He’s also producing a fair amount of hard contact over his past 12 games, evidenced by his 96 mph exit velocity and 65% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +2.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Nick Castellanos is another excellent GPP option. Even though the Tigers own a low 4.0 implied run total, he makes for an interesting lineup differentiator. His +55 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggests he’s due for progression, and his recent form looks great with his 234-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate.
Those Statcast numbers are enticing against Santana, whose 242-foot average batted-ball distance allowed over his past two starts is the slate’s worst mark. This could be a nice spot for Castellanos against a pitcher whose pitch velocity is down -3.6 mph over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Upton (left), Eric Young Jr. (center) and Kole Calhoun (56)
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
