The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 11-game early slate starting at 1:07 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out above the rest today on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,800, NYM vs. PHI
- Mike Clevinger (R) $10,100, CLE @ TOR
What else is left to say about deGrom at this point? He’s now gone a ridiculous 25 straight starts allowing three runs or fewer, which is something that hasn’t been done since King Cole in 1910. Any time you can do something that Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux or Sandy Koufax never accomplished, that’s saying something. The NL Cy Young award seems close to a certainty this season despite the Mets’ struggles as a team.
Unsurprisingly, deGrom has the best Vegas data of all pitchers on today’s slate: 3.1 opponent implied team total, -165 moneyline odds. He also has nice strikeout upside vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, who own the third highest K rate this season vs. right-handed pitchers.
His resulting K Prediction of 7.9 is the top mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and opponent implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.80 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He’s averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +10.50 for the entire season, so it’s tough to consider deGrom anything but the top play on a weak pitching slate.
Clevinger is the other stud option available, but it’s much harder to make a case for him. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has averaged a .334 wOBA and strikeout rate of just 20.0% over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 4.0 runs is higher than usual for a pitcher with a $10,100 salary, and his K Prediction of 6.2 is also mediocre.
One thing that Clevinger does have going for him is his recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 187 feet, which represents a differential of -19 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He might warrant some exposure in guaranteed prize pools — especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94% — but he’s way too expensive to trust in cash games.
Values
Trevor Cahill has not been impressive over his past two starts, but his Statcast data suggests that he’s been pretty unlucky. He’s posted a hard hit rate of just 25%, which represents a decrease of -13 percentage points when compared to his 12-month average.
Cahill is in a nice spot to rebound vs. the Texas Rangers. They’re implied for 3.6 runs, which is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate, and the A’s implied team total of 5.5 runs results in moneyline odds of -215.
He’s priced at just $7,700 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.74 on DraftKings. Cahill should be the highest-owned pitcher on the afternoon slate.
Robbie Ray is one of the most frustrating pitchers in daily fantasy baseball. He has so much upside given his 12-month K/9 of 12.55, but his overall numbers have been dragged down by a BB/9 of 4.81 and a HR/FB rate of 17.8%. Both of those are new career-worsts for Ray.
If he can manage to keep the walks to a minimum, he has massive potential vs. the Braves. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 26.0% against left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the fifth-highest splits-adjusted mark of the day.
Ray’s K Prediction of 7.5 trails only deGrom’s, and it might be a little bit conservative as well: He’s tallied at least nine strikeouts in each of his past two starts.
Unfortunately, there are some clear negatives with Ray, as well. The weather conditions in Arizona are going to be prime for hitting, resulting in an awful Weather Rating of 11. His Statcast data from his past three starts is also concerning, particularly his average exit velocity of 98 mph and hard-hit rate of 57%.
Andrew Heaney has a nice matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has stumbled to a strikeout rate of 26.2% over the past 12 months, giving Heaney a K Prediction of 7.5. There’s no over/under currently posted on this game, but I would expect them to have one of the lower implied team totals of the day, as well.
Fastballs
Tyler Mahle: He’s a right-handed pitcher taking on the San Diego Padres, which automatically puts him on the DFS radar. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .274 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. The biggest concern is the weather forecast, which calls for a 78% chance of precipitation at game time.
Zach Davies: He’s cheap at just $6,900 on DraftKings and has a nice matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants. They own the lowest splits-adjusted wOBA on the slate at .250 and are implied for just 3.6 runs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
- 1. Starling Marte (R)
- 2. Adam Frazier (L)
- 3. Francisco Cervelli (R)
- 4. Josh Bell (S)
- 6. Jose Osuna (R)
Total Salary: $19,500
The Pirates are implied for 4.7 runs vs. Marlins right-hander Jeff Brigham, and they look like an excellent team value given their current salaries. Their Team Value Rating of 70 ranks second on DraftKings, which makes them an awesome target for those looking to pay up at pitcher. Pairing their top stack with deGrom leaves you an average of $4,250 for your remaining four roster spots.
The Pirates are also collectively in good recent form, headlined by projected No. 2 hitter Frazier. He’s averaged a batted ball distance of 238 feet and hard hit rate of 57% over his past 11 contests, both of which represent large increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
On the other hand, Brigham was hit really hard in his only start at the MLB level, resulting in an average distance of 280 feet and hard hit rate of 50%. He’s also posted a BB/9 of 12.00, so the Pirates could have a lot of traffic on the base path.
On the afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 1. Ramon Laureano (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $14,200
The A’s are implied for 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the afternoon slate by nearly a full run. They’re taking on Rangers’ left-hander Jeffery Springs, who has pitched to a 2.29 ERA this season. That said, his FIP of 4.38 is significantly higher, which suggests he could be due for some regression moving forward. He’s struggled with walks and HRs in particular, and he’s allowed a hard hit rate of 66% over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
If you’re looking for some cheap Coors Field exposure, consider projected No. 5 hitter David Freese. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland and has posted elite Statcast marks over his past four contests. He owns 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which ranks second among batters on DraftKings.
Shohei Ohtani continues to rake for the Los Angeles Angels. He’s gone yard four times in his past four contests, and his Statcast data over the past 15 days is impressive. He’s taking on White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, and Ohtani has crushed righties to a .443 wOBA and .357 ISO this season. He looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Michael Brantley is on the wrong side of his splits against Blue Jays left-hander Thomas Pannone, but that should give him reduced ownership in GPPs. He’s still expected to occupy the No. 2 spot in the lineup for an offense implied for 5.1 runs, which gives him plenty of upside. He’s a nice potential value at just $4,100 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
