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Sunday features a split slate: The main slate starts at 1:05 p.m.ET and differs by site — DraftKings includes 11 games while FanDuel only includes 10 — and both sites have a three-game afternoon slate beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on Sunday’s slates own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Blake Snell (L) $12,000, TB @ TOR
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,500, PHI @ ATL
- J.A. Happ (L) $10,000, NYY vs. BAL
Snell has been fantastic over his past eight starts on FanDuel, averaging a Plus/Minus of +13.08. His average of 47.4 FanDuel points per start over the past month is also at least 8.6 points higher than every other pitcher going Sunday.
Unfortunately, he has a difficult matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has posted a .318 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. Their resulting implied team total of 3.5 runs is only the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. While that’s a higher opponent implied team total than usual for a $12,000 pitcher, there’s probably no need for much concern: Pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.25 (per the Trends tool).
Another factor working in Snell’s favor is his peripheral statistics. His K Prediction of 7.7 is tied for the top mark on the slate, and he owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -9 feet.
As strong as Snell has been this season, it’s hard not to consider Happ the top pitching option for the day. His K Prediction of 7.7 is tied with Snell, and his Vegas data vs. the Orioles is vastly superior: 3.1 opponent implied team total, -290 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.99 and a Consistency Rating of 77.3% on FanDuel.
If there is a minor concern with Happ, it’s his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed his past two opponents to post an average distance of 223 feet, which represents an increase of +12 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Still, the Orioles don’t seem like the kind of team that can take advantage of his mediocre form: They’ve posted a .278 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the second half of the season.
Nola could be an intriguing buy-low option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) in his matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves. His salary has decreased by $700 over the past month on FanDuel, but no other pitcher Sunday has averaged more fantasy points over the past year. There’s no Vegas data available for this game at the time of writing, but the Braves could choose to rest some of their regulars after clinching the NL East on Saturday.
Values
Hyun-Jin Ryu will be taking the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers and has one of the best possible matchups vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has been futile against right-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .293 wOBA and 29.2% strikeout rate. Ryu’s resulting opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs is the top mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -224 rank second. He should command massive ownership on the afternoon slate.
Charlie Morton might be the best pure value of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a nice matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels — their projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted wOBA of just .291 over the past 12-months — and his resulting Vegas data is solid: 3.3 opponent implied team total, -200 moneyline odds.
The big red flag with Morton is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 235 feet, thanks in part to a low ground ball rate of just 33%. While that’s not ideal, the fact that those same opponents have managed a hard hit rate of only 24% is encouraging.
Miles Mikolas made his return to MLB after spending three years in Japan, and it’s hard to consider his 2018 season anything short of a success. He has a 3.01 ERA and is tied for third in the National League with 16 wins. The one big knock on him has been his lack of strikeout ability, owning a K/9 of just 6.40.
That said, he’s in a great spot to pick up a few extra Ks vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been putrid against right-handers, owning a wOBA of just .250 and a strikeout rate of 28.3% over the past 12 months. Mikolas’ Vegas data is strong — 3.1 opponent implied team total, -192 moneyline odds — so he has big upside at $7,800 if he can generate enough swings and misses.
Fastballs
Kyle Freeland: He’s been fantastic over the second half of the season, owning an ERA of 2.69 and improving his K/9 to 8.67. He won’t have to deal with Coors Field against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, but they should still provide a stiff test: They’ve posted a .337 wOBA against southpaws at Chase Field in 2018.
Kyle Hendricks: He’s been strong over the past month, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per start on DraftKings, and has a nice matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has struck out in 27.9% of at bats against right-handers over the past year, giving Hendricks more strikeout upside than usual.
Anibal Sanchez: He’s had a resurgent season after some disastrous results in 2017 and appears to be in a nice spot vs. the Phillies. Their projected lineup owns a 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Sanchez has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -11 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
- 1. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. Ryon Healy (R)
- 6. Kyle Seager (L)
Total Salary: $22,100
The Mariners lead all teams on the slate with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 78 on DraftKings ranks first, as well. They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who has pitched to a dismal 1.76 WHIP over the past 12 months. The majority of the stacked batters will also have the splits advantage on Perez.
Seager has not been particularly impressive against left-handers over the past 12 months but enters Sunday in excellent recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and hard hit rate of 44% over his past 11 games; all three represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
On the afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Chris Taylor (R)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. David Freese (R)
- 6. Kiké Hernandez (R)
Total Salary: $12,000
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.6 runs ranks second on the afternoon slate, but their batters look like nice values on FanDuel. Each of the four stacked batters has a Bargain Rating of at least 95%, and Freese and Hernandez each have a Bargain Rating of 99%. They will also be on the positive side of their batting splits against Padres left-hander Joey Lucchesi, who has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed batters in 2018.
Other Batters
Andrew McCutchen remains one of best values on DraftKings at just $4,300. He will occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for a Yankees team implied for 5.5 runs and will get to face one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Alex Cobb. McCutchen has also posted impressive Statcast data over the past 15 days, resulting in 15-day/12-month distance differential of +13 feet.
No batter enters the day in better recent form than Travis Shaw. He’s absolutely crushed the baseball over his past 10 games, resulting in an average distance of 275 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard hit rate of 66%. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Pirates right-hander Nick Kingham, with Shaw owning a .382 wOBA and .283 ISO against traditional pitchers over the past 12 months.
Kris Bryant has had a down year by his lofty standards but appears to be in a great spot vs. White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon. He’s averaged a .447 wOBA and .322 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, while Rodon has pitched to an xFIP of 5.36 against right-handed batters in 2018. Bryant is expected to bat second in the lineup, and the Cubs are implied for 5.0 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.A. Happ
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
