The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split-slate: There’s a 12-game DraftKings and 10-game FanDuel early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a two-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers have a salary of at least $9,800 on FanDuel:
- Chris Sale (L) $12,800, BOS @ BAL
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,500, CLE @ CHW
- Rich Hill (L) $9,800, LAD @ COL
Sale makes his return to the rotation after missing the past two weeks with a shoulder injury, and he’s in an amazing spot vs. the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball all season, and their implied team total of 2.9 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Their projected lineup has been extremely futile against left-handed pitchers in particular, owning a paltry .261 wOBA and 27.9% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Sale is also a massive -346 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.99 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Sale has been the best strikeout pitcher in baseball this season, leading all starters with a K/9 of 13.21, and he unsurprisingly owns a massive K Prediction of 10.0. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +16.95 and a Consistency Rating of 90% over his past 10 starts, and there’s no reason he can’t improve upon those numbers vs. the Orioles.
Carrasco has turned things around since the All-Star break, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Chicago White Sox, who have posted the second-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Carrasco is a strong -247 favorite, while his opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs ranks third. Carrasco has also recorded eight strikeouts in each of his past four starts, and his K Prediction of 7.6 trails only Carrasco’s.
Hill is only available on the DraftKings main slate, and he’s in an interesting spot vs. the Rockies at Coors. His $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, although that doesn’t exactly guarantee success in Colorado: Pitchers with a comparable Bargain Rating have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.97. Still, it’s not like pitchers are destined for failure at Coors field – the Dodgers’ starters have combined to limit the Rockies to just four runs over the first three games of the series – and Hill is undoubtedly more talented than his current salary indicates. That said, the Rockies have been pretty potent against left-handed pitchers this season, owning a .343 wOBA and a strikeout rate of just 21.5%. He could warrant some exposure as a contrarian option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but it seems like there are better options at similar price tags.
Values
Very rarely can Noah Syndergaard be considered a value option, but his $9,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup owns the lowest splits-adjusted wOBA on today’s slate. Syndergaard’s opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs trails only Sale’s, and he’s also limited his past two opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 19%.
Wei-Yin Chen is opposing Syndergaard and owns some of the most extreme home/road splits in baseball this season. He’s been awful when on the road, owning an astronomical ERA of 10.27, but it drops to a sparkling 1.94 when pitching in Miami. He’s also averaged more than two additional strikeouts per nine innings at home and has limited opposing batters to a .244. He also benefits from being left-handed, as the Mets have struggled to the lowest wOBA against southpaws in 2018. He’s priced at just $5,500 on DraftKings and makes a lot of sense for those looking to load up on the expensive stacks.
Luke Weaver also has an excellent matchup vs. the Kansas City Royals, who have averaged the fewest runs per game this season. Their projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .291 against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Weaver is a solid -157 favorite. He’s also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 190 feet, which represents a differential of -16 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.76 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Tyler Glasnow: He’s struck out 14 batters in just seven innings as a member of the Rays, which gives him big upside if he can go a little deeper vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. His $5,900 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Jake Arrieta: The San Diego Padres have been one of the worst teams against right-handers this season, giving Arrieta solid marks across the board: 3.7 opponent implied team total, 6.9 K Prediction, -110 moneyline odds. He also enters today’s contest in good recent form, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 21%.
Joe Musgrove: The pitching options on the afternoon slate are thin, but Musgrove has arguably the best matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants. The have the lowest splits-adjusted mark in both wOBA and strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and Musgrove’s $6,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francesco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Yonder Alonso (L)
- 8. Yan Gomes (R)
Total Salary: $23,900
The Indians are implied for 5.6 runs vs. White Sox right-hander Dylan Covey, who has struggled to a 1.59 WHIP over the past 12 months. He’s been particularly ineffective over his past three starts, allowing 14 earned runs over 15.1 innings pitched. The Indians should be a somewhat popular target — their implied team total is the third-highest mark on the slate — but stacking them in the above 1-2-3-4-8 manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup.
Lindor and Ramirez have both crushed right-handers over the past 12 months, with each owning a wOBA of at least .387 and an ISO of .286, but Gomes enters this contest in the best recent form. He’s posted an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 50% over the past 15 days, both of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-moth averages. He could be an important differentiator for Indians’ stacks.
On the two-game afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Justin Upton (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 4. Albert Pujols (R)
Total Salary: $12,200
No team on the late slate stands out from a Vegas perspective, as each has an implied team total between 4.0 and 4.4 runs. With that in mind, it makes more sense than usual to focus on recent Statcast data, and the Angels stand out in that department. Each of the stacked batters has posted a positive distance differential over the past 15 days, and Oakland right-hander Trevor Cahill has underperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts. The stacked batters also look like excellent values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 86%.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter continues to ride one of the hottest streaks of the season after homering for the seventh time in eight games on Saturday. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Royals’ right-hander Jakob Junis, with Carpenter owning a .407 wOBA and .298 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s the seventh-most expensive batter on FanDuel at $4,600, but his lofty price tag still comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Michael Gerber is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and is currently projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Tigers’ lineup. That automatically makes him worth of consideration, as minimum-priced leadoff hitters have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.64. He also enters this contest in solid recent form, posting a distance differential of +7 feet over his past seven games.
The Yankees lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.8 runs against Rangers’ left-hander Martin Perez, and the Yankees have been absolutely elite against southpaws in 2018. That starts with leadoff hitter Aaron Hicks, who has posted a .381 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months. Giancarlo Stanton has also crushed lefties over the past 12 months, owning a .530 wOBA and .425 ISO, and he’s exceeded his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Wei-Yin Chen
Photo credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
