The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate that varies by site. FanDuel has a 15-game all-day slate that begins at 12:07 p.m. ET. DraftKings’ nine-game main slate and FanDuel’s eight-game main slate start at 1:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Chris Sale (L) $12,500, BOS @ DET — B. Hardy (L)
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,800, WSH vs. ATL — M. Foltynewicz
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,500, NYM @ NYY — M. Tanaka (R)
- Lance McCullers (R) $10,500, HOU @ LAA — A. Heaney (L)
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,000, ARI vs. COL — A. Senzatela (R)
Sale has been outstanding over the past 12 months with his 0.98 WHIP and slate-best 13.28 SO/9. He’s cruised past opposing offenses this season, averaging a 17.85 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 88% Consistency. Sale is coming off the All-Star break in exceptional form, striking out 11 or more batters in each of his past five starts.
His 8.7 K Prediction against the Tigers is the second-best mark on the slate, but Sale has the most favorable Vegas data as the Tigers have an implied run total of just 3.0 runs and the Red Sox check in with -335 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas odds of at least -300 have historically crushed salary-based expectations, averaging a +8.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 76.8% Consistency (per our Trends tool). Sale is as safe as it gets.
Scherzer leads the day with a 9.3 K Prediction against a projected Braves lineup that boasts a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. It’s a decent matchup as their projected lineup also owns a weak .308 split-adjusted weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months, and this season, they rank 22nd in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties (FanGraphs). Scherzer is in a similar boat as Sale as the Braves have the same implied run total (3.0) as the Tigers, but Scherzer’s odds (-220) aren’t as extreme as Sale’s. Nevertheless, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +7.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 70.2% Consistency.
deGrom has a difficult matchup against the Yankees. He’s a rare underdog as the Mets are sitting with +148 moneyline odds. Since 2014, deGrom has been an underdog in just 38 starts, and he’s struggled under those circumstances:
- Underdog: 31.87 FanDuel fantasy points per game (FPPG), +0.26 Plus/Minus, 47% Consistency
- Favorite: 42.28 FPPG, +7.51 Plus/Minus, 69.3% Consistency
It’s challenging to get excited for McCullers’ matchup against the Angles. Their projected lineup is sporting a low 21.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, which is likely why McCullers has a meager 6.0 K Prediction. Additionally, the Angels rank sixth against right-handed pitchers in wRC+ and seventh in hard-hit rate. While McCullers and the Astros are -130 moneyline favorites and the Angels 3.8 implied run total isn’t daunting, it is less than desirable for a pitcher with McCullers’ salary, especially considering there may not be much upside in this matchup. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have been relatively mediocre, averaging a +1.51 Plus/Minus with 61.9% Consistency.
Greinke rounds out the pitchers in this tier. He has been serviceable this season, averaging a +3.59 Plus/Minus with 74% Consistency. He’ll take on a projected Rockies lineup that owns the second-worst split-adjusted wOBA (.279) on the day. It’s a decent spot for Greinke as the Rockies rank 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season and he’ll have the benefit of facing the Rockies away from Coors Field where they’re far less effective. Chase Field will play as a neutral field on Sunday with a Weather Rating and Park Factor of 50. Greinke should be a decent option on Sunday with the Diamondbacks sitting as -173 moneyline favorites and the Rockies implied for a mediocre 3.5 runs. He’s a better value on DraftKings where he owns a 72% Bargain Rating.
Values
J.A. Happ has one of the best matchups on the board against an Orioles team that no longer employs Manny Machado. Their projected lineup owns a high 27.1% strikeout rate and woeful .286 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year. The Blue Jays’ -193 moneyline odds are the third-best mark on the main slate and Happ boasts a serviceable 6.7 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged 35.01 FPPG with a +4.61 Plus/Minus. Happ is an exceptional value on FanDuel with a 75% Bargain Rating.
There’s possible rain in the forecast for the Blue Jays-Orioles game so be sure to monitor up until lock.
A potential punt option on DraftKings could be the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi for $6,000 (87% Bargain Rating). It’s a solid matchup as the Royals are rather underwhelming on offense. Their projected lineup owns a .293 wOBA against righties over the past year, and they rank 28th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He and the Rays are outstanding -172 moneyline favorites against a Marlins team that ranks 24th in split-adjusted wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Miami is implied for just 3.3 runs. Even though the projected Marlins lineup has a strikeout rate of just 21.7% over the past 12 months against righties, Archer still boasts a decent 6.6 K Prediction. Archer’s primary concern is his 52% hard-hit rate allowed over his past two starts.
Masahiro Tanaka: His 7.1 K Prediction is tied for the fourth-best mark on the all-day slate. Overall, it’s a decent spot for Tanaka as the Mets are implied for just 3.6 runs and the Yankees check in with -161 moneyline odds. He’ll like be low-owned on the all-day slate.
Marco Gonzalez: He owns a low 5.2 K Prediction, but the Mariners -215 moneyline odds is the fourth-best mark on the day. He’s been great over his past 10 starts, averaging a +9.34 Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency. It’s an intriguing matchup for Gonzalez since the White Sox are implied for 3.4 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the all-day slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Indians:
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Jose Ramirez (S)
- Yonder Alonso (L)
Total Salary: $16,800
It’s an excellent spot for the Indians who are implied for 6.3 runs against Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo got smoked in his last start, allowing an average batted-ball distance of 241 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 47%. The matchup against the righty will put Ramirez on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits. He’s shown exceptional power against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .421 wOBA and .319 ISO. It’s also a benefit that it’s going to be a toast 105 degrees in Texas, giving his game a Weather Rating of 80. HItters featured in games with comparable Weather Ratings have averaged a +1.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
One of the top five-man main-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins:
- Joe Mauer (L)
- Eddie Rosario (L)
- Brian Dozier (R)
- Eduardo Escobar (S)
- Jorge Polanco (S)
Total Salary: $22,000
The Twins check in with an implied run total of 5.2 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark on the main slate. Escobar could be due for some progression as he’s sporting a +49 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score on DraftKings. He’s in terrific form, possessing a 224-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. Escobar is currently one of the top-rated third basemen in the CSURAM88 model. Polanco has shown excessive power against righties over the past year with a .413 wOBA and .254 ISO. He’s also in good form with a +7-foot distance differential and +13-percentage points hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Adam Eaton is an intriguing option, especially on FanDuel, where he possesses a 95% Bargain Rating. Eaton’s +22-foot distance differential is among the highest marks of all outfielders. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot and leadoff hitters with comparable batted-ball differentials have historically averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Mookie Betts is the most-expensive outfielder on the main slate, but it’s well deserved as the Red Sox are implied for 5.9 runs and he’s destroyed left-handed pitching over the past year, evidenced by his .476 wOBA and .336 ISO. Additionally, Betts is in great form as his 15-day batted-ball distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate all exceed his 12-month average. He has been one of the best fantasy producers this season, averaging a +4.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 53% Consistency.
Ivan Nova has a slate-worst 1.81 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’ll be facing Reds team that boasts a solid 4.9 implied run total. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett will both be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits. Votto’s sporting an elite .432 wOBA and Gennett has been smashing the ball of late, posting a +22-foot distance differential and 95-mph exit velocity. They’ll also have the benefit of being in a hitter-friendly venue as Great American Ballpark owns a Park Factor of 61. The 71 Weather Rating is also the top mark on the main slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
