The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split-slate: There’s an 11-game FanDuel and 12-game DraftKings main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
All 30 teams are in action on the final day before the All-Star Break, but three pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R) $13,500, HOU vs DET – F. Liriano
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $12,900, LAD vs LAA – D. McGuire
- Trevor Bauer (R) $12,000, CLE vs NYY – M. Tanaka
It’s hard to look past Verlander as the top option on today’s slate. He leads all pitchers with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings and has some truly elite Vegas data vs. the Tigers. His opponent implied team total of 2.5 runs and moneyline odds of -390 are among the best marks we’ve seen all season, and pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.66 and Consistency Rating of 64.3% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
If there is a downside today with Verlander, it’s his lack of elite strikeout upside. The Tigers’ projected lineup has whiffed in just 21.4% of at-bats over the past 12 months, resulting in a K Prediction of just 6.9.
Bauer is the other top option available on the early slate, and he’s putting together a Cy Young-caliber season for the Cleveland Indians. He’s pitched to a 2.23 ERA and 11.69 K/9 in 2018, both of which would represent new career-highs for Bauer. He’s currently tied with Chris Sale for the best WAR among pitchers in all of baseball (per Fangraphs), and he’ll likely pass him after today’s effort. His recent Statcast data is also excellent, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 204 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of just 20%. All three of those numbers represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Unfortunately, none of that matters today against the New York Yankees. They’ve destroyed right-handed pitchers all season, ranking second in wOBA and first in ISO, and have average the second-most runs per game. As a result, Bauer has an opponent implied team total of 4.3 runs and moneyline odds of just -128, both of which are significantly worse than usual for a pitcher of Bauer’s caliber. The huge disparity in Vegas data makes Verlander the clear choice for cash games.
Bauer does have appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his strikeout upside. The Yankees have shown a proclivity to strikeout in bunches, and Bauer leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 7.6. He’s also a stronger value than Verlander on DraftKings given his edge in Bargain Rating (51% vs. 5%).
The afternoon slate belongs to Kershaw, who will be taking on the Angels in the conclusion of the “Freeway Series.” He remains an elite pitcher in his 11th MLB season, owning a 2.61 ERA, but his K/9 has dipped slightly to 9.13.
The Angels do represent a difficult matchup for Kershaw, as their projected lineup has posted a .334 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months. There’s no Vegas data available at the time of writing, but I would expect it to be a bit higher than usual for Kershaw. The Angels have also been one of the hardest teams to strikeout this season, resulting in a K Prediction of just 5.9. Ultimately, Kershaw will likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the three-game afternoon slate, but there is some merit to fading him.
Values
Patrick Corbin leads all pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 98% on FanDuel and is taking on a slumping Atlanta Braves team on today’s slate. They’ve won just two of their past 10 games and have averaged just 3.3 runs per game over that time frame. Corbin enters today’s contest in strong recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet. He also has a K Prediction of 6.9, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.59 on FanDuel.
The value options are thin on today’s slate, which could make Fernando Romero an interesting option vs. the Rays. Tampa Bay is likely going to be without All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos, and Romero has pitched to a 2.04 ERA at the AAA level this season. He hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout ability, resulting in a mediocre K Prediction of just 5.3, but only Bauer owns a K Prediction above 7.0 on today’s slate. He’s a nice value on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Fastballs
Marcus Stroman: He’s tough to roster on most slates given his low K/9 and has a brutal matchup today against the Red Sox, but Stroman enters today’s contest in elite Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 162 feet, which represents a differential of -24 feet. He could have some contrarian appeal for GPPs.
Jon Lester: He’s put together a dominant season, although some of the advanced numbers suggest he’s due for some regression in the second half. That said, Lester has a tremendous matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .293 wOBA and 28.3% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. He leads all pitchers on the afternoon slate with seven Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- D.J. LeMahieu (R) – questionable
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $25,900
The Rockies are unavailable on FanDuel but should be the chalk option on DraftKings. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.0 runs and have an excellent matchup against Mariners’ right-hander Mike Leake, who has managed an extremely poor K/9 of 5.52 this season. His Statcast profile is extremely important given his inability to miss bats, and he’s underperformed his 12-month marks in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over his past two starts. That could spell trouble at Coors.
The one big drawback with the top Rockies’ stack is that you won’t be able to pair them with Verlander on today’s slate. It leaves just an average of $2,650 for your remaining roster spots – including your second pitcher – which means DFS players will have to choose between the two. Given that Verlander seems like the best pitching option by a wide margin on the main slate, a full Rockies stack could actually be slightly contrarian for GPPs.
On the afternoon slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
- Anthony Rizzo (L)
- Albert Almora Jr. (R) – questionable
- Kris Bryant (R)
- Wilson Contreras (R)
Total Salary: $12,900
The Cubs lead the afternoon slate with an implied team total of 4.7 runs, which will make them extremely popular on a three-game slate. They’re taking on Padres’ left-hander Eric Lauer, who has pitched to a dreadful 1.68 WHIP over the past 12 months.
That said, the Cubs could be worth some fade consideration in GPPs given their projected ownership. Only two of the stacked batters – Rizzo and Bryant – crack the top 14 in ceiling projection on the afternoon slate.
Other Batters
If you are fading the Cubs on the afternoon slate, one interesting direction to go is targeting Kershaw with the Los Angeles Angels. They will likely have the lowest ownership on the slate and have been pretty effective against left-handed pitchers this season. David Fletcher is projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and owns positive 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity. He’s also been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball over that time frame, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +72 on DraftKings.
Matt Carpenter consistently has some of the best Statcast data in baseball, and he’s been even better than usual over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 253 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 57%, all three of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits today against Reds right-hander Anthony Desclafani, and Carpenter has posted a .384 wOBA and .251 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
The Royals could be an interesting stack target for those looking to roster Verlander on the main slate. They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who has been possibly the worst pitcher in all of baseball this season. Whit Merrifield will likely occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.20 and a Consistency Rating of 70% on DraftKings over his past 10 games.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Trevor Bauer
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
