The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: The early slate starts at 4:05 p.m. ET and the size differs by site — DraftKings offers four games while FanDuel only offers three — and both sites offer a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Only two pitchers going Saturday own a salary of greater than $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R), Houston Astros: $12,100 (vs. LAA)
- Patrick Corbin (L), Arizona Diamondbacks: $10,400 (vs. COL)
Verlander has been nothing short of fantastic in his past three starts, allowing only four earned runs while tallying 29 strikeouts over 21 innings pitched. As a result, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.39 on DraftKings over that span.
He appears to be in another nice spot against the Angels. Their projected lineup has averaged a wOBA of just .292 and a strikeout rate of 24.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 2.8 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Verlander is also a substantial -274 favorite, and his K Prediction of 8.2 ranks second among today’s starters. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.11 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
It’s much harder to make a case for Corbin. He’s taking on the Rockies, who have been one of the best teams against left-handed pitchers this season. They’ve posted a wOBA of .340, which is the second-best mark in the league. Corbin has also allowed an average distance of 213 feet over his past three starts, which represents an increase of +10 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Values
Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Rich Hill was scratched from his start Friday but appears to be on track to pitch Saturday. He’s priced at a slight discount compared to the top pitchers on the slate, but provides just as much upside against the Padres. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .266 wOBA and 30.8% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, both of which are among the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Hill’s resulting Vegas data is impressive: 2.9 opponent implied team total and -297 moneyline odds.
His peripheral stats in this matchup are also strong. He owns a K Prediction of 8.7 and his Statcast data from his most recent start is also excellent. He owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -17 feet and hard hit differential of -10 percentage points, and pitchers with comparable Statcast data and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.00 on DraftKings. You could make a strong argument that he’s the top pitcher on Saturday’s slate.
Chicago Cubs left-hander Jon Lester has pitched to a respectable 3.43 ERA in 2018, but his fantasy upside is usually capped by his lack of strikeout upside. That said, that doesn’t figure to be much of a problem against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 31.2% against left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst mark of today. Lester also has strong Vegas data, owning a 3.7 opponent implied team total and -199 moneyline odds. He’s also over-performed his 12-month Statcast data over his past two starts.
In the early games, it’s also hard to look past the New York Yankees’ Lance Lynn. He’s taking on the Orioles, who have averaged the fourth-fewest runs per game in 2018. Baltimore’s implied total of only 3.4 runs and Lynn’s moneyline odds of -319 make him the largest favorite of the day.
Lynn also enters Saturday in elite recent Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 167 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 26%, all three of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
- Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: No one enters the day in better recent form than Clevinger, who owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -34 feet and hard-hit differential of -20 percentage points. That said, he has a brutal matchup against the Red Sox, who own the top wOBA against right-handers in 2018.
- Tyler Glasnow, Tamp Bay Rays: No early pitcher has more strikeout upside than Glasnow. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.64 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 6.6 is the top mark on the early slate.
- Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds: If you’re looking for a real value option on DraftKings, consider DeSclafani at just $6,600. He has an appealing matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .280 and a strikeout rate of 26.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Yankees:
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 5. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 8. Neil Walker (S)
Total salary: $23,000
The Yankees are implied for a whopping 6.3 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. They will likely be a popular stack target, especially considering there is no stud pitching option to pay up for. That said, stacking them in the above 1-2-3-5-8 manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. Walker could be an important differentiator, and he’s posted an elite 15-day/12-month distance differential of +67 feet.
The Yankees are taking on Orioles right-hander David Hess, who has a 5.22 ERA in 2018. He’s been equally bad against both right- and left-handed batters, allowing a wOBA of at least .350 to batters on each side of the plate. He’s also been hit particularly hard over his past two starts, allowing an average distance of 229 feet and hard hit rate of 43%.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Max Muncy (L)
- 8. Kiké Hernandez (R)
Total salary: $14,000
The Dodgers’ implied team total opened up at 5.7 runs, but has dropped all the way to 5.2. That said, there’s still a lot to like about the Dodgers against Padres right-hander Jacob Nix. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his past three starts and has been hit particularly hard over his past two, allowing batters to compile an average distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 48%.
One batter who stands out for the Dodgers is Pederson. He’s priced at just $3,200 on FanDuel, which gives him a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s also posted a .377 wOBA and .286 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months and has averaged a hard hit rate of 55% over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
No batter going Saturday has more Pro Trends than the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Daniel Descalso. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings and has a strong matchup against Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela. Descalso also enters today’s contest in excellent recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +35 feet and hard hit differential of +13 percentage points.
Marwin Gonzalez is another relatively cheap batter worth considering. He’s expected to occupy the cleanup spot in the lineup for the Astros, who are implied for 4.8 runs on today’s slate. He’s also crushed the baseball recently, owning an average distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 47%.
Nolan Arenado has a difficult matchup vs. Corbin, but Arenado has posted an elite .493 wOBA and .378 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s also priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $600 over the past month. He should command minimal ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Joc Pederson
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
