The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 13-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are only two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,600, LAD vs. ARI
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,900, ARI @ LAD
It’s always an exciting slate when the only high-priced pitching options will square off in the same game; today we get Kershaw vs. Corbin at Dodger Stadium.
Vegas gives the edge to Kershaw: The Dodgers are -171 moneyline favorites, and the opposing Diamondbacks are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs.
It’s a neutral spot for Kershaw against a projected Arizona lineup with a 24.3% strikeout rate, which is part of the reason for his subpar 6.5 K Prediction. That said, he’s much closer to “old-Kershaw” than we have seen in quite some time, yielding a batted ball distance of only 170 feet and hard-hit rate of 21%. Over his past five starts, he has averaged 42.4 FanDuel points per game, a +6.38 Plus/Minus, and an 80% Consistency Rating.
Corbin has exceeded his salary-based expectation in five of the last six games. However, his most recent Statcast numbers are concerning. Over his last two starts, his 98-mph exit velocity allowed is tied for the worst on the slate, and his -90 recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) indicates potential regression.
Corbin has a brutal matchup against a projected Dodgers lineup with a bottom-six 21.4% strikeout rate and top-six .332 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Kershaw is likely to soak up a ton of ownership, which in theory increases Corbin’s appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). That said, there are better ways to gain leverage on the field.
Values
It may not be necessary to completely punt your SP2 spot on DraftKings since there are a ton of options in the mid-range tier.
Luis Castillo at $7,500 is probably as far down as you need to go. Castillo takes on a projected Cardinals lineup that has generated a 26.8% strikeout rate and .299 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Ultimately, Castillo is a risk-reward play: He’s a slight underdog (+111) but possesses the highest K Prediction on the slate (8.4).
Fastballs
Steven Strasburg: He has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our MLB Models for Saturday’s slate, which isn’t too surprising given that his 8.0 K Prediction trails only Castillo. Strasburg’s matchup isn’t overly enticing, but his salary drop of $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month is a tad aggressive and creates value. According to our MLB Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and salary changes over a month-long period have averaged a +1.38 Plus/Minus on DraftKings along with a massive 21% Upside Rating.
Jon Gray: He could be the highest-owned pitcher on the entire slate but may be worth eating the chalk for. He’s up against a Padres ball club that is ranked dead last in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season, according to FanGraphs. Gray’s K Prediction of 7.5 is fourth-highest on the slate, and his five FanDuel Pro Trends trail only Eduardo Rodriguez.
James Paxton: After a forearm injury just over two weeks ago, Paxton will make his return to Seattle’s rotation today. He has a difficult matchup against a projected Athletics lineup that owns a top-three wOBA over the past year against left-handed pitching (.337). Both of those factors should lead to low ownership, however. His 11.46 SO/9 over the past year leads the slate. He also has a top-four ceiling projection.
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s been recalled from a Triple-A rehab stint after striking out 14 batters over eight scoreless innings in his last start. Vegas seems to think his ankle is good to go: The Red Sox are currently the second-largest favorite on the slate (-148), and the White Sox are implied for only 3.7 runs. Comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically been solid investments (+1.82 FanDuel average Plus/Minus).
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, whose 5.1 implied runs trail only the Astros (5.2). Minnesota also has today’s highest Team Value Rating on both sites.
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 3. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Max Kepler (L)
- 6. Mitch Garver (R)
Total Salary: $20,000
The Twins are still cheap as they get set to take on Rangers righty Yovani Gallardo, owner of a slate-worst 1.62 WHIP and troublesome 1.36 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months.
It is typically -EV to leave a No. 2 hitter out of a stack, but Logan Forsythe has underperformed lately. Forsythe has managed a batted-ball distance of 167 feet, an exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of 16% over the past 15 days.
A solid way to differentiate Twins stacks is to pivot to Garver, who is projected to bat sixth. Garver’s batted-ball distance differential over the past 15 days (+26) leads all Minnesota batters. He also sports a +40 recent Batted Ball Luck.
Despite a middling implied run total of 4.7, the Royals are one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model:
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Alex Gordon (L)
- 3. Salvador Perez (R)
- 5. Ryan O’Hearn (L)
Total Salary: $13,100
Kansas City will face Baltimore righty Dylan Bundy, who has gotten absolutely rocked lately. Bundy has allowed a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 93 mph, and a fly-ball rate of 51% in his last two outings. He HR/9 mark of 2.12 over the past year is the highest on the slate.
Merrifield could be the player to take advantage as one of the highest-rated batters in our models, sporting a massive 247-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity and 50% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Perez (questionable) is also in strong recent batted-ball form. Most notably, his hard-hit differential versus his year-long average is +8%.
Other Batters
The Red Sox are just outside the top tier of implied totals (4.9 runs) and could easily fly under the radar in GPPs. Mookie Betts is on the right side of his massive batting splits with an elite .501 wOBA and .383 ISO against lefties over the past year. Most of the Boston lineup is appealing, quite honestly, as the Red Sox have a slate-leading .351 wOBA over that span.
The Angels represent a good matchup for the Astros, who are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs. Angels’ righty Felix Pena has allowed a ton of hard-contact lately, including a 97-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over his last two starts.
That said, Houston could make for an interesting fade in tournaments. Four of the five batters at the top of its projected lineup have recent batted-ball distances of less than 210 feet, and and no Astros batter has managed a hard-hit rate greater than 36% over the past 15 days.
The Nationals are in a phenomenal spot against Brewers righty Chase Anderson, whose 1.63 HR/9 over the past year is third-highest on the slate.
Adam Eaton is on the right side of massive batting splits, with significant +0.156 wOBA and +0.110 ISO differentials over the past year.
Trea Turner has done his part to get the ball in the air lately with a 44% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
If you’re looking to create high-upside unique lineups, also consider adding Strasburg to your Nats stacks to differentiate in tournaments.
The Dodgers could offer tournament leverage off of Corbin, as players in west-coast games tend to carry low ownership. Justin Turner could lead the way with a .448 wOBA and .269 ISO against left-handed pitching. Turner’s 52% fly-ball rate leads the team over the past 15 days. Brian Dozier in LA’s leadoff spot also carries intrigue. His +29-foot batted-ball distance differential leads the team over that span.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mitch Garver
Photo credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
