The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: The early slate differs by site, with DraftKings offering a four-game slate starting at 2:20 p.m. ET and FanDuel offering a five-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET, and both sites feature a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates are loaded with pitching talent, with five starters owning a salary of at least $10,500 on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,900, HOU @ LAA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,800, LAD vs. SD
- Rick Porcello (R) $11,200, BOS @ TB
- Corey Kluber (R) $11,000, CLE @ KC
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,500, NYM vs. WAS
Kershaw has been downright filthy over his past two starts, striking out 16 batters while allowing just one earned run over 15 innings pitched. His Statcast data from those two starts is equally impressive, particularly his average distance of 162 feet. That represents a differential of -30 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is the best mark on the slate.
He has an outstanding matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, resulting in some of the most impressive Vegas data that we’ve seen all season.
Kershaw has an opponent implied team total of just 2.4 runs and is a massive -404 favorite, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.33 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He’s the hands-down top option for cash games.
Verlander is the priciest option on DraftKings but has a much tougher matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup has posted a .307 wOBA and strikeout rate of just 19.5% against right-handers over the past 12-months, and they’re implied for 3.4 runs.
Verlander is also a much smaller favorite at just -183, and he’s underperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over his past two starts. That said, he could be worth some exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): He has the second-highest K Prediction of the day at 7.1.
Kluber might be the best value of the day on DraftKings at $11,000, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 51%.
He’s another pitcher with a great matchup, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -280 against the Kansas City Royals. They’ve been the worst offense in baseball this season in terms of runs per game, and their projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just 29.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’ve also been pretty strikeout prone: Their splits-adjusted strikeout rate is 26.1%, which gives Kluber a K Prediction of 6.8.
It might be weird seeing Wheeler listed among some of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s earned it with his numbers this season. He’s been fantastic since the end of May (2.82 ERA and K/9 of 8.97 over his past 17 starts).
He’s been particularly impressive over his past three, allowing just two earned runs while limiting his opponents to a hard hit rate of 18%. It seems like Wheeler is finally come into his own as a pitcher, but he’ll likely be a contrarian option today vs. the Washington Nationals. His opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is just the third-lowest mark of the early slates.
Porcello rounds out the stud tier, and he has been hit-and-miss over his past four starts. He’s thrown two gems – posting a Plus/Minus of +29.95 against the Yankees and a Plus/Minus of +20.23 against the Phillies – but has been roughed up for 12 earned runs in the other two.
His salary has increased by $2,800 on DraftKings over the past month, which makes him tough to consider vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. He owns a K Prediction of just 5.9, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.07.
Values
It seems like a prime day to pay up at pitching, but there are some appealing value options of you choose to go in a different direction.
Robbie Ray is always viable for GPPs given his elite strikeout ability. He leads all of today’s pitchers with a K/9 of 12.70 over the past 12 months, resulting in a K Prediction of 8.3 vs. the Seattle Mariners.
His results from his past two starts aren’t particularly impressive, allowing five earned runs over just 9.1 innings pitched, but that belies some excellent Statcast data. Ray has limited his opponents to an average distance of just 198 feet, which represents a decrease of -20 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.72 on DraftKings. His big problem has been walks – his walk rate of 12.6% would be the worst mark among qualified starters in 2018 – but Ray has massive potential if he can limit the number of free passes.
Anibal Sanchez has put together a great season in his first year in Atlanta, posting a 3.13 ERA after pitching to a dismal 6.41 ERA in 2017. He has a chance to improve his numbers today vs. the Miami Marlins, who have been awful against right-handed pitchers over the past 12-months.
Their projected lineup has struggled to a .288 wOBA and a 23.0% strikeout rate, and they’re implied for just 3.4 runs on today’s slate. Sanchez’s Statcast data from his past two starts is also fantastic, particularly his average distance of just 178 feet. He should be a popular SP2 for cash games on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Wei-Yin Chen: He’s posted some of the most extreme home/road splits in baseball this season, owning a 2.05 ERA when pitching at home and a 9.35 ERA when pitching on the road. He’s at home today vs. the Atlanta Braves, who own a mediocre .305 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Nick Pivetta: He has tons of strikeout upside (10.95 K/9 over the past 12 months), and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -14 feet. He has a tough matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays but should have minimal ownership for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 3. Nick Williams (L)
- 5. Carlos Santana (S)
- 6. Wilson Ramos (R)
Total Salary: $21,500
The Phillies’ implied team total of 4.7 runs is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, and they have an exploitable matchup vs. Blue Jays’ right-hander Aaron Sanchez. He’s pitched to a 1.52 WHIP over the past 12 months and has managed a dreadful K/9 of 7.57 in 2018.
The Phillies should put a lot of balls in play against Sanchez, which could mean big things given their recent Statcast data: Hernandez, Williams, Santana and Ramos have all outperformed their 12-month average distance over the past 15 days.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 5. Stephen Piscotty (R)
Total Salary: $14,400
The A’s are implied for a strong 5.3 runs vs. Twins’ left-hander Stephen Gonsalves, and their Team Value Rating of 77 ranks third on FanDuel. Each of the stacked batters will have the splits-advantage against Gonsalves, and they have collectively smoked the baseball over the past 15 days.
Each batter has posted a positive hard hit differential over that time frame, and all but Lowrie combine that with a positive distance differential as well.
Other Batters
Coors Field is available on the main slate, and the game between the Rockies and Cardnials unsurprisingly has the highest total of the day at 11.0 runs.
One batter who stands out an as excellent value is Yadier Molina, who is priced at $3,500 on FanDuel. He’s projected to occupy the second spot in the Cardinals lineup and has posted a distance differential of +13 feet and hard hit differential of +10 percentage points over his past 13 games. He should be the chalk at catcher.
It’s been a bit of a down year for Edwin Encarnacion (.230 batting average), but he has managed to club 27 HRs through his first 107 games. He still hits right-handed pitching well – he owns a .361 wOBA and .272 ISO against righties over the past 12 months – and he’ll be facing a pretty mediocre one today in Heath Fillmyer.
The Indians’ implied team total of 5.5 runs trails only the Rockies’, and Encarnaction is affordable at just $3,500 on FanDuel.
Tim Anderson has been in really good form recently, posting positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s facing Tigers’ left-hander Ryan Carpenter today, which puts Anderson on the positive side of his batting splits.
The White Sox lead all teams on the FanDuel early slate with an implied team total of 4.8 runs, and Anderson is projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Clayton Kershaw
Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
