The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a four-game early slate at 4:05 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers on FanDuel who cost at least $10,000:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $12,000, CLE @ CWS
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,500, PHI @ SD
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,000, HOU vs. SEA
Bauer has had an elite season, boasting a 5.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, FanGraphs) along with a stellar 2.25 ERA. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged an excellent +7.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating. Bauer’s only concern is his Statcast data over the past 15 days. He’s allowed opposing teams to average a 225-foot batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. Even so, the Indians are the day’s largest favorite (-237 moneyline odds) and Bauer’s 8.1 K Prediction is the second-best mark on the main slate. Additionally, his matchup isn’t daunting vs. a White Sox team that ranks 24th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season. Bauer is an excellent play, although Nola might make more sense at a cheaper price tag with a better matchup.
Nola gets the dream matchup against a projected Padres lineup that has an absurdly high 35.2% strikeout rate and low .276 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He has elite recent batted-ball data, holding opposing teams to an average distance of 188 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph and hard-hit rate of 23%. Further, Nola has tremendous upside, boasting the day’s highest K Prediction (9.8). The Padres’ 3.2-run implied total is the day’s lowest mark. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions have averaged a +6.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 67.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Surprisingly, Nola is cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he’s an excellent cash-game option on either site.
Of the top-priced options, Morton draws the toughest matchup, as he faces a projected Mariners lineup that owns a splits-adjusted 20.9% strikeout rate and .327 wOBA against righties over the past year. With the troublesome matchup, Morton would be a stellar GPP candidate with his 6.9 K Prediction and -192 moneyline odds. Moreover, the Mariners’ 3.4-run implied total is lower than the White Sox’s 3.5-run total against Bauer.
Values
Jack Flaherty possesses the day’s highest Bargain Rating (93%) on FanDuel. The matchup isn’t imposing, as the Royals rank 27th in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season and have a projected lineup with a 26.4% strikeout rate and mediocre .295 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Further, he has the third-highest K Prediction (7.5) on the main slate, and he’s in solid form, possessing a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -15 feet. The Cardinals’ -150 moneyline is the fourth-highest mark on the main slate, making Flaherty a solid option if you want to load up on high-priced bats.
Dan Straily costs just $6,600 on DraftKings, and he could be a serviceable SP2. While Straily’s recent batted-ball form (229-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate) is cause for concern, he does own a 6.8 K Prediction against a projected Mets lineup that has a 26.9% strikeout rate and mediocre .294 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s also exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings over his past 10 starts with a 70% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He is known for giving up hard contact when he’s not missing bats and has an underwhelming matchup against a Reds team that ranks fifth in wRC+ against lefties this season, but Ray possesses the early slate’s highest K Prediction (8.6), and the Diamondbacks are sitting with -136 moneyline odds.
Kyle Gibson: His 6.7 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the early slate, and the Tigers rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, the Tigers’ 4.0-run implied total is the lowest mark on the early slate.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- 1. Jon Jay (L)
- 2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 3. David Peralta (L)
- 4. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 5. Eduardo Escobar (S)
Total Salary: $24,300
The Diamondbacks are implied for 4.9 runs against Reds right-hander Matt Harvey. He’s struggled over the past year, sporting an atrocious 1.57 WHIP, 1.74 HR/9 and 6.53 SO/9. The switch-hitting Escobar stands out, having crushed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .373 wOBA and .293 isolated power (ISO). He’s also in great recent form with a 234-foot batted-ball distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Pollock’s +40 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests he’s been rather unlucky of late. He’s in great form, sporting positive 15-day/12-month differentials in batted-ball distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Brian Dozier (R)
- 2. Manny Machado (R)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 5. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $16,700
The Dodgers are at Coors Field, where they have an implied team total of 5.7 runs against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland. All four of the stacked hitters have shown exceptional power against lefties over the past 12 months. Dozier, Machado and Turner each own wOBAs and ISOs over .378 and .207. Turner is smoking the baseball with his 98-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data at Coors Field have averaged a +4.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Bellinger has also been crushing the baseball with his 15-day/12-month differential of +30 feet.
Other Batters
The Indians are an intriguing non-Coors team to stack. They boast an implied total of 5.6 runs against White Sox righty James Shields. Jose Ramirez has an elite .450 wOBA and .357 ISO against righties over the past year, and he has 33 home runs and 27 stolen bases this season. It’s a great spot against Shields, who possesses a 42% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
Mookie Betts is on the negative side of his batting splits, but he still has a .395 wOBA and .244 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. It’s a great matchup against Indians righty Yefry Ramirez, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his past two starts. Betts’ recent +4.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating is almost identical to his season average, and he’s smashed the baseball over his past 12 games, evidenced by his 250-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate. Plus, Betts is always a threat to swipe a bag: He’s averaged .186 stolen bases per game over the past 12 months, the sixth-highest mark on the day.
Yadier Molina and the Cardinals are implied for 4.8 runs against Royals left-hander Danny Duffy. Molina stands out in our Models with the second-highest median projection among catchers. Additionally, he has some of the best Statcast data at the position over the past 15 days, posting a 231-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate. Molina is projected to hit from the No. 2 spot, making him one of just a few catchers to hit that high in the order.
As of writing, the Astros are tied with the Indians for the slate’s best Team Value Rating (83) on FanDuel. Alex Bregman has been in a slump over his past 10 games, averaging an atrocious -3.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 20% Consistency Rating, but he’s shown the ability to hit left-handed pitchers well, evidenced by his .403 wOBA and .282 ISO. Bregman presently owns our second-highest ceiling projection among third basemen on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
