The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers are priced above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- James Paxton (L) $12,900, SEA vs. TOR
- Jose Berrios (R) $11,000, MIN vs. KC
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,100, CLE vs. LAA
Paxton is coming off a fantastic outing vs. the Houston Astros, allowing just three hits while striking out eight over seven innings pitched. His advanced numbers from that start are also impressive, particularly his hard-hit rate of just 12%. He’s been excellent for most of the season, compiling career highs in both K/9 (11.61) and xFIP (3.05), and he currently ranks sixth among American League pitchers in WAR despite his 3.49 ERA. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he could be in line for a big second half.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, whose implied team total of 3.0 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Paxton is also a significant -243 favorite and owns a K Prediction of 8.0. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been excellent options on DraftKings, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.37 and a Consistency Rating of 63.7% (per the Trends tool). Paxton leads all pitchers with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings — no other pitcher has more than eight — and factoring Pro Trends into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +5.15. He seems like the top option on the slate, especially on FanDuel, where has has a 99% Bargain Rating.
Berrios was roughed up by the Red Sox in his last start but has an easier matchup today vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’ve struggled to the third-lowest wOBA this season vs. right-handed pitchers, and their projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 27.9% over the past 12 months. Given those numbers, it’s not surprising that they’ve averaged the second-fewest runs per game in 2018. Berrios doesn’t have Paxton-level numbers, his 3.6-run opponent implied total, -230 moneyline odds and 6.9 K Prediction are still strong. He’s an interesting pivot for guaranteed prize pools given his ownership projection of just 13-16% on DraftKings and 9-12% on FanDuel.
Kluber is possibly the most intriguing option at just $10,100 on DraftKings. That’s unusually low for a pitcher of Kluber’s caliber: He’s been priced below $10,500 just five times over the past two seasons. Only one of those starts has been in 2018, and that was against the dominant Yankees. Today’s matchup vs. the Angels isn’t nearly as intimidating, especially if perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout (questionable) is out of the lineup for the third straight day. Kluber trails only Paxton in both opponent implied run total (3.3) and moneyline odds (-239). This is a rare opportunity to buy low on one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Values
Mets’ fans haven’t had a lot to smile about this season, but Zack Wheeler has been one of the exceptions. He’s been outstanding over his past eight starts, compiling a 2.96 ERA while striking out 52 batters in 51.2 innings. As a result, he has an average Plus/Minus of +6.94 on DraftKings over that time. The Statcast data from his past two starts in particular is also excellent, surpassing his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
He has a nice matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .301 and a strikeout rate of 29.4% against right-handers over the past 12 months. He is a slight underdog — which is common for Mets pitchiers — but that will lower his ownership in GPPs.
Arguably no pitcher has as much strikeout upside as Freddy Peralta. He has a K/9 of 12.22 over the past year, and the projected Rockies lineup has struck out in 28.2% of at-bats against righties over the same time. His K Prediction of 9.3 is the slate’s top mark.
One problem is his control. He’s thrown at least 93 pitches in each of his last three starts but made it out of the fourth inning in just one of them. He needs to cut down on his walks in particular: 11 free passes in just 13.2 innings is not a formula for success. He has big upside for GPPs but also figures to be one of the highest-owned pitchers.
Fastballs
Kevin Gausman: He’s making his debut for the Atlanta Braves and facing the Mets, who managed just two hits last night against Anibal Sanchez. Pitchers facing the Mets have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 on DraftKings since the start of May.
Clay Buchholz: His Statcast data has been dominant over the past two starts, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -41 feet. He has a nice matchup against the offensively challenged San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .295 over the past 12 months.
Kenta Maeda: He has a tough-on-paper matchup vs. the Houston Astros, but their projected lineup is not nearly as daunting with both Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve on the disabled list. His opponent implied total of 3.5 runs and K Prediction of 7.6 both rank third on the slate.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Adrian Beltre (R)
- 6. Robinson Chirinos (R)
Total Salary: $22,000
The Rangers’ implied total of 5.8 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate, and the stacked batters are collectively in excellent recent form. Only Choo has failed to exceed his 12-month average distance over the past 15 days, and Andrus boasts one of the best differentials on the slate at +30 feet. They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.79 over the past 12 months. He’s been even more exploitable lately, allowing six long balls over his past two starts, which could spell trouble at Arlington. Batters have made elite contact against him over that time, averaging a distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 45%.
The Rangers will likely be chalky, but avoiding projected No. 5 hitter Joey Gallo could help differentiate lineups. He’s gone deep in each of the past two games and figures to be one of the highest-owned batters on the team.
On FanDuel, one of the most interesting teams to target is the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 5. Logan Forsythe (R)
- 6. Max Kepler (L)
- 7. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $9,500
The Twins’ implied total of 5.6 runs ranks third and has increased by +0.4 runs since opening. They’re also massively underpriced on FanDuel with a perfect Team Value Rating of 100. Five of their projected starters own Bargain Ratings of at least 95%. Only Eddie Rosario is priced above $3,000 on FanDuel. They’re facing Royals right-hander Burch Smith, who has pitched to a HR/9 of 1.81 and WHIP of 1.63 over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
The Nationals are the other team implied for 5.8 runs and are facing the artist formerly known as Matt Harvey. He’s allowed a HR/9 of 1.73 and WHIP of 1.53 over the past 12 months and pitched to a 5.13 ERA in 2018. Anthony Rendon is projected to bat second and leads the team with a Bargain Rating of 56% on DraftKings. He makes a lot of sense for cash games and should be considered a building block for Nationals stacks.
Chris Davis has been a joke for much of the season but is starting to show signs of life for the Orioles. He’s crushed the baseball over his past 12 games, posting an average distance of 262 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 55%. He’s a cheap source of power, although he is on the negative side of his batting splits against Rangers left-hander Mike Minor.
Paul Goldschmidt is facing a left-handed pitcher at home, which has historically been a fruitful situation for fantasy purposes. He has an average Plus/Minus of +2.71 when facing a southpaw at Chase Field, and Giants left-hander Andrew Suarez has allowed a .350 wOBA to right-handed batters in 2018, and 12 of his 13 homers have been to righties.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Miguel Sano
Photo credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
