The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate that varies by site. DraftKings’ seven-game early slate begins at 2:10 p.m. ET, and FanDuel’s five-game early slate starts at 4:10 p.m. ET. Both sites feature a six-game main slate that starts at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, three pitchers cost $10,000 or more:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU vs. DET — M. Fulmer (R)
- Aaron Nola (R) $11,500, PHI @ MIA — T. Richards (R)
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,900, MIN vs. TB — C. Archer (R)
Cole has been dominant this season, but he’s been more hit or miss of late, posting a -0.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating over the past month. He bounced back nicely in his last start, fanning 11 batters in six innings while allowing zero earned runs. Cole will be in an excellent spot Saturday against a Tigers team that ranks 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, their projected lineup owns a weak .297 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handers over the past year.
Overall, Cole has the most favorable Vegas data on the board with his -250 moneyline odds, and the 2.9 opponent implied run total is the lowest mark on the slate. Historically, hitters with comparable K Predictions (7.5), Vegas data and salaries have averaged a +2.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 63.2% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Nola has been outstanding over the past 12 months, sporting a 1.1 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9 and 9.90 SO/9. He gets a favorable draw against a projected Marlins lineup that possesses a 26.1% strikeout rate and woeful .295 wOBA against righties over the past year. The Marlins also rank 23rd in split-adjusted wRC+ this season. Outside of Cole, Nola is likely the safest option on the early slate, with his slate-high 8.0 K Prediction and favorable Vegas data (-177 moneyline).
Nola will also have the benefit of being in a pitcher-friendly venue, as Marlins Park has an 84 Park Factor. If you need to be sold more, Nola possesses elite recent Statcast data, holding opposing teams to a 190-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity and absurdly low 16% hard-hit rate. Favorited pitchers with hard-hit rates below 20% have historically averaged an exceptional +2.94 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Berrios has been on fire over his past 10 starts, averaging a +9.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an amazing 90% Consistency Rating. It’s an average matchup against a projected Rays lineup that boasts a 23.3% strikeout rate and .322 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the year. The concern with Berrios is his K Prediction (6.2), the Twins’ -136 moneyline odds, and the fact that the Rays’ implied run total (3.7) isn’t as favorable as the other top-priced pitchers. Further, Berrios has allowed an abundance of hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 46% hard-hit rate and 93-mph exit velocity.
Values
Kyle Hendricks is more of a value on FanDuel with his 91% Bargain Rating. The Cubs check in as favorable -167 moneyline favorites, and the Padres’ 3.5 implied run total is rather weak. The Padres also rank dead last in wRC+ against righties this season. Hendricks also has elite batted-ball data, holding teams to a 178-foot average distance, which is 20 feet lower than his 12-month average. He could be due for some progression as his +72 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggests.
Value options are thin on Saturday, but Jack Flaherty could be lumped into this category. That’s more the case on FanDuel, but he’s still affordable for $8,000 on DraftKings. He could be another progression candidate with his +37 RBBL Score on DraftKings. The Cardinals are sitting with solid -143 moneyline odds, and Flaherty owns a respectable 6.1 K Prediction. That said, it’s a below average matchup, as the projected Reds lineup has a low 21.5% strikeout rate and .325 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: He owns a solid 6.2 K Prediction, but has a mediocre matchup against a projected Braves lineup that possesses a 23.7% strikeout rate and .314 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. The Braves also have a 4.1 implied run total, and this game is essentially a pick’em with the Diamondbacks checking in with -103 moneyline odds.
Chris Archer: He and the Rays are +126 underdogs against the Twins, but his 6.3 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on DraftKings’ early slate. He’s better reserved for GPPs against a projected Twins lineup that has a low 21.6% strikeout rate and slate-best .339 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Alex Wood: He should be the most popular option on the main slate with the Dodgers possessing -205 moneyline odds and the Angels implied for just 3.1 runs. That said, his upside may be limited, as Wood boasts a meager 4.1 K Prediction against a projected Angels lineup that has only a 23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top five-man early-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Royals, who are implied for 4.5 runs:
- Merrifield (R)
- Bonifacio (R)
- Moustakas (L)
- Perez (R)
- Duda (L)
Total salary: $20.5K
Whit Merrifield will be on the negative side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, but he’s been crushing the baseball of late, posting a 220-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. All marks represent positive differentials when compared to his 12-month average. Lucas Duda, however, will be on the positive side of his splits, possessing an elite .344 wOBA and .254 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s been obliterating the baseball over his past nine games, boasting a 262-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. Duda’s +62 RBBL Score is the fourth-highest mark among first basemen on DraftKings, suggesting he could be in store for progression. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball data and RBBL Scores have averaged a +1.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 5.0 runs:
1 – Choo (L)
3 – Mazara (L)
5 – Odor (L)
7 – Gallo (L)
The 1, 3, 5, 7 stack is indeed unconventional, but it’s possessed an exorbitant amount of power against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Joey Gallo in particular stands out with his .352 wOBA and .309 ISO. He’s typically a volatile option with his high strikeout rate, but he still owns a +3.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 50% Consistency over his past 10 games. Gallo has been smashing the ball of late, evidenced by his 265-foot average distance and 98-mph exit velocity. Don’t forget about Shin-Soo Choo, who owns an impressive 271-foot average distance and 99-mph exit velocity. Hitters with comparable exit velocities have historically averaged a +1.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Each of the stacked batters in this stack owns a Bargain Rating of at least 86%. Gallo and Choo possess excellent 99% Bargain Ratings, and the Rangers’ 85 Team Value Rating is the second-best mark on the main slate.
Other Batters
Nolan Arenado has an attractive 82% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he leads all third baseman on FanDuel with eight Pro Trends. He’s always in play at Coors Field, especially against a left-handed pitcher, as Arenado has hit them to the tune of a .559 wOBA and .427 ISO over the past 12 months. That’s not to mention his 250-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate over his past 12 games. Batters with comparable batted-ball data at Coors Field have historically averaged an outstanding +4.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Brian Dozier is in elite batted-ball form right now, posting a 15-day/12-month distance and hard-hit rate differential of +37 feet and +17 percentage points. His 96-mph exit velocity and 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings lead all second baseman in the early slate. Even though he’ll be on the negative side of his splits, he’s still shown power against right-handed pitchers over the past year with a .350 wOBA and .219 ISO against them.
Tim Beckham costs just $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot for an Orioles team that is implied for a stellar 5.1 runs. It’s a great spot against Martin Perez, who owns an awful 1.62 WHIP, 1.61 HR/9 and 4.92 SO/9 over the past year. He also owns a ridiculous 9.67 ERA this season. The matchup against the lefty will put Beckham on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits: He’s throttled left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months with his .366 wOBA and .239 ISO. It’s an intriguing spot for Beckham, as leadoff hitters featured in games with comparable implied run totals have averaged a +1.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 47.7% Consistency.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
